It seems without doubt that unless there is some form of magic for the next few hours, and the resoundingly NO vote, and for the avoidance of a total economic collapse and impecuniousness for Greeks, the IMF and the eurozone would have to provide Greece with up to €25bn of hard currency, to ease its changeover to a new currency, a new Drachma. Greece simply can’t pay for what it needs from exports, because its exports are just 13% of GDP or national income.
Or to put it another way, staying in the euro would be atrociously expensive for Greece and the eurozone. And exiting the euro would be horrifically expensive for Greece and the eurozone. But with the Greek banking system perilously close to total collapse, eurozone leaders have only hours to decide which bill they wish to pay.
Back in the real world, Greece is running out of money. The European Central Bank (ECB) refuses to give the banks more liquidity and they are tottering. If Greece defaults on €3.5 billion-worth ($3.9 billion) of bond payments to the ECB on July 20th, pressure will build to withdraw even today’s backing. The government will soon start paying its bills with IOUs that, in time, will become a parallel currency. Each step makes Grexit more likely. Moreover, for Greece to return to normality will require ever more nous and skill—and a lack of both in Mr Tsipras (the Prime Minister) is part of the reason why his country is so lost.
What lessons can Kenya learn from Greece, seeing that our wage bill is ballooning, and in a few years’ time, will become unsustainable, with the current profligate attitude of the state officers?