The sliding shilling - Tracking thread.

What the fuck is happening? what controls the shilling ? who sets the day’s exchange rate?

Feel free to contribute.

Since the time halawas were closed by the government due to the unfortunate issue of terrorism, it meant the the alternative and unregulated source of dollar inflow/outflow was blocked. This made the Dollar to be scarce hence the fall of the shilling.


The dollar is getting stronger againist many other currencies not only againist our shilling


Also look at how the U.S economy is performing, it has managed to shed the hangovers of the 07/08 recession while Europe is still deep in the doldrums, its creating almost 200,000 jobs per month, The dollar is also performing better than the Euro. However,its not all doom and gloom, if anyone is exporting his agricultural produce the weak shilling makes his products competitive. In short, look at it this way, its not entirely up to Kenya to determine the performance of the shilling, there are other factors as well that play a significant part. For now, we have been cushioned by the low international crude oil prices due to a glut in the market (I can only think of how it will be when Iran finally has its sanctions lifted and its oil floods the market further pushing down the prices). These low oil prices mean that inflation will not be as bad since we import the commodity


On the other hand Importers businesses are crumbling in the fact that no increase on Customers income. I am a victim to this and its not good.

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But we are also to blame for importing too much and exporting too little. That is even before the All Shabaab menace which has hamstrung tourism and rendered the North Eastern and coast no-go zones for investors.

I think we should be looking rather keenly at our imports and exports and ask ourselves:

  1. Can we produce some of the things we import?
  2. What more can we export?

I know you know and we all know both questions should be answered in the affirmative.


Yep we can produce, but will it be cheaper to produce in kenya rather than import? It all boils down to making business sense to those in the business.We have some of the highest energy tariffs in the region.Kenya has a good human resource critical mass, but we have prohibitive energy costs. If the government manages to ward off the vested interests that are in the diesel-generated back-up electricity clique akina Biwott etc, and invest in electricity production as it is doing now with olkaria etc ,then its only a matter of time before most manufacturers call Kenya home. Energy bills in S.A are cheaper than Kenya, they have BMW,Lexus, and many car brands doing most of their assembly and manufacture in the country. We should also note that the impotation of crude oil puts significant pressure on the shilling,if the Ngamia I and II stuff is not hekaya, we may be having a very good future ahead


I agree and also wonder why we are yet to produce oil(even for our own consumption) three years after discovery. Why is there no hurry to exploit this resource.??
What is the govt and Tullow oil not telling us???

pia Tullow has a history of announcing fictitious oil deposit findings to shore up its share prices, lets wait and see

They said it will take at least 10 yrs for us to see any effect.

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nobody is too excited about investing in upstream oil sector now, prices are low and supply high. When prices improve, you will see the interest again

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What I find interesting is that in December 2007 the Shilling’s value was 63 KSh a dollar.
The main reason is that Kenya’s economy is increasingly imbalanced: the country is importing too much and exporting too little. This makes it vulnerable to shocks. The gap between imports and exports needs to be financed by financial inflows other than export earnings. for instance, in 2011, imports had soared (mainly due to higher oil and food costs), while exports remained stagnant. The gap between imports and exports, also called current account deficit, now stands at above 10% of GDP – one of the highest in the world! Today, Kenya’s main exports don’t even earn enough to pay for its oil imports, not to mention other imports beyond oil figures. The money to pay for any additional imports needs to come from somewhere. don’t ask me where please.

But I think the cost of energy is supposed to be cancelled out by the fact that labor in our country is very cheap! What do you think Tiomin at Kwale would be paying it’s labourers if they were mining elsewhere, say, like Australia? I think it’s up to the government and the leadership at large to minimize our expenditure so that we can afford to lower our taxes and, maybe, make it attractive for local and foreign investors to do it here!

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am tempted to ask you…


what do you expect kama simiti for building SGR are imported yet we have kina Bamburi, Athi river etc

There’s simply no infrastructure to get it to you and me. Sio pipeline, sio refineries, wala barabara. :frowning:

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Niliona juzi kwa news they’ve already amassed 30,000 barrels from their test-drilling.

What quality do they produce? Simiti ya kujenga nyumba na ya kujenga reli ni tofauti sana. I hold no brief for the shainese though.

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they invested in their plants to produce same quality