The Collapse Of Ksh Vs USD In Historical Perspective

Mangele · February 6, 2024, 2:45pm

Below is a snapshot of how the KES has performed against the USD under different regimes!

During Jomo’s 15 years reign, the KES remained stable against the USD

The KES depreciated significantly between 1979 and 2002; when it recorded an annual average depreciation of 38% (but mainly from 1982) (Nyayo Regime)

Between 1979 and 1982, the KES remained strong and stable against the USD, but a free-fall started thereafter!

The Kibaki Regime managed to stabilize the currency, and between 2004 and 2007, KES gained significantly from 79 KES/USD to 69 KES/USD

However, the KES started a fall in 2008, with minor fluctuations until it hit 84.5 KES/USD when Kibaki left (Uhuruto Regime Begins)

Overall, the KES lost by an average of 1% during Kibaki’s Tenure, nearly the same as during Jomo’s Tenure

Enter Uhuru when the KES lost by an average of 4% during his 10-year tenure!

Finally, in the past 18 Months of Ruto’s Reign, the KES has lost on average 18% of its value against the USD

Overall, KES has lost by 33% in the past 18 Months (ie. Sep 2022 to Feb 2024)

PERDITION · February 6, 2024, 3:37pm

Inshort problems start when meno nje take the reign ,if imeharibika hivo na current mbwa has reigned for just a year by end of his era I see only doom.

Ndindu · February 6, 2024, 4:11pm

BANTU = HIGHEST IQ

Minomolokanyunja · February 6, 2024, 4:40pm

Kalejingas must never rule this country again.Kwanza hii mutu ya zoology lazima atolewe whether he kithni or he ndekni

Electronics4u · February 6, 2024, 5:21pm

Lakini msiweke kachakwa kwa hio kiti priss
He will be worse off

Bonnified · February 6, 2024, 7:28pm

Wueh, na ujue ya Uhunye 2% ni after Covid

Uwongoman nikama alipata E in economics

eddy_mahelo · February 7, 2024, 9:01pm

I don’t like being tribal , but to be honest kuna vile Kales huwa short-sighted in matters leadership.
If you have observed, Kikuyus in leadership and in general are very greedy, but sometimes they think about tomorrow.
A Kale will bankrupt a profit making institution and has no feeling of guilt or anything as long as his needs of currency accumulation are met.

Just look at how Kikuyus exploited the ties to Kibaki and Uhuru combined 20yrs and at least built enterprises we can all name employing 1000s,
Name anything you can remember built by Kalenjin’s in 24 yrs of Moi in power.

Mangele · February 7, 2024, 9:21pm

Your observation is correct.
Even during Jomo’s era, Kikuyus were nyakuaring, but the economy was organized and political appointments were somewhat representative with qualification as the guiding factor.
The cattle herders base their appointments on two things:

Kalejingas first
Loyalty.

Qualification does not play any part in these two considerations…

You can see the end result!.

Mikymas · February 7, 2024, 9:37pm

Currency inflation is not economic inflation, and does not mean economic failure.

Mangele · February 8, 2024, 1:50pm

https://twitter.com/PillowsAndDuvet/status/1755554526155636965?t=0doV97uymDqx_kB3R_06TA&s=04&fbclid=IwAR35TVPEl0fUjZHIktC3znj5LheL0ObSNnR8C6j194s-NscTE8NCk72ubrw

https://twitter.com/i/status/1755489822016233977

https://twitter.com/jimayore/status/1755539179415740710?t=WfzwwKnStKrcnWIdwbd3pw&s=04&fbclid=IwAR0D17OcTgVcSOLwyrHrxuOQcoP3BHJaUiRY9WgJ9YEfgivRjt3m7QbgkP8

Mangele · February 10, 2024, 11:58pm

Idiots Celebrate Shilling Gaining 68 Kenya Cents Against Dollar

The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has revealed that the shilling has been steadily gaining ground against the dollar for the past eight days.

In its weekly economic review report released on Friday, the regulator noted that the dollar had shed Ksh0.68 in that period.

As detailed in the report, the dollar, on February 1, was trading at Ksh160.67 and dropped to Ksh160.57 on February 2 - 4.

On February 5, the exchange rate dropped to Ksh160.51 and Ksh160.36 on February 6.

On the other hand, between February 7 and February 8, the dollar traded at Ksh160.32 and Ksh160.09 respectively.

"The Kenya Shilling remained relatively stable against major international and regional currencies during the week ending February 8. It exchanged at Ksh160.09 per US dollar on February 8, compared to Ksh160.67 per US dollar on February 1.

“The US dollar index strengthened by 1.1 per cent against a basket of major currencies during the week ending February 8,” read the report in part.

Earlier in the week, CBK Governor Kamau Thugge expressed that the shilling would begin gaining ground soon owing to three factors including the expected boost of the foreign reserves through foreign investments, loan disbursements and the repayment of the Eurobond.

He noted that the factors would help reduce pressure on the demand for the dollar.

“The IMF, as I indicated earlier, did disburse USD 684 million just last month. The Trade Development Bank (TDB) also made some disbursements of almost USD 400 million within the last two months. We are also expecting disbursements from the World Bank around March/ April of close to USD 1.5 billion,” he stated.

With the gains made by the shilling against the dollar, importers are set to be the biggest beneficiaries given that they purchase goods in the international market in dollars.

Among the notable beneficiaries will be fuel importers. Notably, global fuel prices have declined in the last two weeks owing to reports of an anticipated ceasefire in the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

“International oil prices declined during the week ending February 8. Murban oil prices declined to USD 79.41 per barrel on February 8 compared to USD 80.47 per barrel on February 1,” the report read in part.

Meanwhile, EPRA is set to release new pump prices on Wednesday, February 14. Diesel retails at Ksh196.47, Kerosene at Ksh194.23 and Super Petrol retails at Ksh207.36.

Meanwhile…

Over 250 Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) have announced plans to reduce their workforce within the next two months due to the rising cost of doing business.

In a survey conducted among 1,000 CEOs by the Central Bank of Kenya across various fields, 25.7 per cent of the respondents intimated that they would let some of their employees go as they undertake austerity measures to reduce operation costs.

On the other hand, 637 respondents revealed that they would not be seeking to make any recruitments between February and March, a revelation that cast doom among job seekers.

Notably, out of the 1,000 CEOs, only 106 of them revealed that they would be adding more people to their workforce.

An aerial view of companies in the Industrial Area in Nairobi.

According to the report, the looming projection is that the job market has been occasioned by the increased costs of doing business which is also attributed to increased taxation.

Notably, employers have been among those affected by taxation policies included in the Finance Act 2023 which introduced additional costs for employers including the 1.5 per cent housing levy.

Additionally, rates were increased with another looming increase in deductions for the Social Health Insurance Fund (SHIF).

"High-interest rates, increased taxation and the impact of a weaker Shilling are expected to keep input costs elevated, with global geopolitical tensions potentially affecting supply chains.

“Firms that reported possible difficulty in expanding their operations cited difficulties in securing finances for working capital. Other reasons cited included increased overhead costs, notably, the cost of electricity, fuel, labour and an increase in taxation which has worsened the cost of doing business,” read the report in part.

Already, private security companies have warned that they could lay off half of their staff should the government push with the Ksh35,000 minimum salary directive.

In a statement issued by the association of private security companies, it was highlighted that over 700,000 would be rendered redundant in the process.

Meanwhile, three national companies including Procter and Gamble, and Bayer are expected to exit the Kenyan market in the next two years, a move that will render over 1,000 employers jobless.

Mangele · February 11, 2024, 5:24pm

Tea Farmers to be Paid In Dollars…Gachagua And Nabii Finally Accept Fate Of Dying Shilling

Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua on Saturday, February 10, revealed that there was a government plan underway to pay tea farmers based on the dollar exchange rate.

Speaking in Kigumo, Murang’a County, Gachagua stated that he would meet with the Kenya Tea Development Agency to work on frameworks for the new payment method.

It is Gachagua’s belief that this payment model will increase tea earnings for small-scale farmers as the Dollar continues to appreciate against the Shilling.

The Deputy President wondered how tea earnings had remained constant at a time when the Shilling exchanged at an all-time high against the Dollar.

Going forward, a higher exchange rate of the Dollar will match earnings for tea farmers according to the Deputy President.

“If the exchange rate for the Dollar is high, the same should reflect on farmers’ income because the crop trades in the USD,” Gachagua stated.

“I will convene a meeting with KTDA and explore ways of improving the earnings. We cannot have a fixed rate of payment, the price should be paid at the existing exchange rate of the Dollar on the respective day.”

Kenyan farmers taking coffee beans to a cooperative society.

While the Dollar is exchanging above 160 against the Shilling, Kenyan farmers receive a paltry Ksh20 to Ksh25 for every kilogram of green tea leaves sold.

Additionally, the bonus given at the end of the year does not reflect the current exchange rate but the quality of tea sold by the farmer.

Gachagua further added that there were plans to end exploitation of tea farmers but the efforts were being sabotaged by the Judiciary.

“I appeal to the Judiciary that tea reforms were so well crafted; the public was engaged. The courts suspended implementation of regulations aimed at reforming the subsector and delayed determination of the case for over three years now,” he regretted.

Additionally, Gachagua promised that apart from tea, President William Ruto’s administration was also exploring ways to empower coffee farmers.

moyez · February 12, 2024, 9:56am

What a load of bull***. Uhuru Inauguration Apr. 9th 2013 Price 84.01, Last day in office Sept 12th 119.45 KES. %age change is 41.64%.

Dilettante · February 13, 2024, 10:35pm

It clearly says “Annual % Depreciation…” The Math’s right. The 18% annual depreciation for Ruto would mean the Ksh would trade for an amount north of Ksh 300 after 10 years! Even I agree we ain’t getting there any soon but I can’t say never.

Mangele · February 13, 2024, 11:00pm

Mangele · February 15, 2024, 2:44pm

Treasury Principal Secretary Chris Kiptoo on Wednesday, warned that Kenyans hoarding dollars risk incurring more losses after the shilling posted its strongest intra-day gain against the dollar for the first time in over a decade.

Cause of dramatic rise: Kiptoo attributed the shilling’s dramatic rise to investors’ confidence drawn from the government’s move to buy back the Ksh316 billion (USD2 billion) Eurobond maturing in June this year.

"I want to encourage Kenyans that the risk of failure to settle for the Eurobond is gone. Sell your dollars and get back to business. Don’t do any speculation anymore,” Kiptoo advised.

“The issue has been addressed. There is now confidence and you can tell the shilling is beginning to improve. As of this morning, I was told it was trading at 151 units and yesterday it was at 157, and previously it was at 160 and that is very good news,” he added.

In the latest Central Bank of Kenya data, the shilling is currently trading at 153 units against the green buck, hitting its strongest streak since November last year.

The other factors that have boosted the shilling include foreign investments in the CBK’s Ksh70 billion infrastructure bond.

Govt strategies: While defending the government’s move to sell the new Eurobond worth Ksh234 billion (USD1.5 billion), Kiptoo stated the securities had attracted more than USD6 billion in offers.

The hike in subscriptions was due to investors’ confidence in Kenya’s economic and debt management strategies.

Kiptoo added that the fear of Kenya defaulting on the Ksh316 billion Eurobond had been eliminated following the issuance of the new Eurobond.

“We did a roadshow and we explained to investors our economic situation and plan and gave them all the information they needed, and they believed in our story,” the PS remarked.

“We got quality investors who are going to stay for the long term and are not going to go to the second market. This is a confidence boost to us because everyone now believes Kenya is good for business.”

The new 7-year debt is set to be repaid in three instalments with the last one repaid in 2031.

Effects of strengthening shilling: With Kenya’s debt surpassing Ksh11 trillion, the exchequer can now sigh a breath of relief as a stronger shilling will offer the government relief in offsetting the credit.

A stronger shilling guarantees flexible and lower debt servicing as Kenya offsets loans in dollars. Reports indicate that within the past week, the debt service costs were reduced by Ksh144.8 billion.

Analysts are, however, skeptical of the shilling’s dramatic gain, questioning whether the government’s recent fiscal measures are long-term.

Comment:

Let me give them the benefit of the doubt. I have never heard before, about the dollar depreciating because of any Chinese holiday, so let’s just take it as they want us to believe, that it’s William Ruto has is forcing down the dollar to 150. **
Let’s now wait for next week.

Mangele · February 15, 2024, 10:39pm

Mangele · February 16, 2024, 2:46pm

Foreign Investors Raise KSH241 Billion Within 3 Weeks to Fund Kenya’s Infrastructure

by TIMOTHY CERULLO on Friday, 16 February 2024

The National Treasury has raised Ksh241 billion from foreign investors who purchased the infrastructure bonds issued by the Central Bank of Kenya.

Going by the amount, the Treasury raised three times the figure it initially planned for. When announcing the sale of the infrastructure bonds on January 25, the Treasury sought to raise Ksh70 billion.

According to the National Treasury, the funds would go into infrastructure improvement in the country under the financial year 2023/24.

Oversubscription of the infrastructure bonds has since been attributed to investors’ confidence in the country’s monetary policies.

Surviving On Charity

The move has also contributed to the stability of the Kenyan Shilling as foreign investors seeking the bonds utilise their dollars to buy the local currency.

The auction of the tax-free bonds lasted for three weeks and was conducted between January 24 to February 14, 2024, with the bonds set to attract interest twice a year starting in August.

According to John Gachora, Kenya Bankers Association Chairperson, most Kenyan banks placed bids in the infrastructure bond sale.

On January 25, CBK disclosed the repayment structure would involve payment of 20 per cent of the principal by February 15, 2027, with the outstanding principal amount repaid by August 9, 2032.

“The bond will be listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange and will only be eligible for investors with active central securities depository (CSD) accounts with the Central Bank of Kenya,” CBK noted in its January 25 statement.

According to CBK, the intermediaries in the deal would include the local banks, Non-Bank Financial Institutions, Licensed Stock Brokers and Licensed Investment Advisors.

However, the government warned that defaulters would be suspended from subsequent investment in government securities.

In 2022, the government issued infrastructure bonds worth Ksh75 billion and raised Ksh1 billion more than the amount, indicating investor confidence in Kenya.

Mangele · February 17, 2024, 8:26pm

A report by the National Treasury has shown that investors in Kenya’s capital market declined in 2023 in comparison to 2022.

In the Quarterly Economic and Budgetary Review report, the Treasury indicated that investors were moving to other countries such as the United States with tough monetary policies forcing them to engineer the move.

According to data, investment in stock trades dropped by Ksh500 million in 2023.

In 2022, the market capitalization was valued at Ksh1.98 billion. However, that dropped significantly to Ksh1.4 billion in 2023.

"Activity in the capital markets slowed down in December 2023 compared to December 2022 due to global monetary policy tightening leading to investors moving capital to relatively safer jurisdictions, especially the United States.

“The Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) 20 Share Index declined to 1,509 points in December 2023 compared to 1,676 points in December 2022 while Market capitalization declined to Ksh1.432 billion from Ksh1.986 billion over the same period,” read the notice in part.

Some of the monetary policies that drive investors away include high tax policies, poor economic indicators and exchange rates.

The current administration introduced new tax policies in the Finance Act 2023, which affected the profit margins of many businesses. Additionally, with the current harsh economic times, companies are struggling to stay afloat.

Investors hence lose confidence in the market, forcing them to seek other alternatives.

Notably, in the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report 2023, 100 millionaire investors left the Kenyan market owing to taxation. A similar number also left the market in 2022 over concerns of the General Election.

Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) governor Kamau Thugge expressed optimism over investments expected in the country this year owing to increased confidence by investors in the projected economic growth of Kenya.

“We expect a total of USD 3.5 billion in 2023 and USD 4.6 billion in 2024. This would include portfolio inflows, foreign direct investments as well as disbursements from our development partners, multilateral institutions, and regional partners,” he stated during the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) address on February 7.

Mangele · February 18, 2024, 2:55pm

The Kenya Association of Bankers (KBA) has attributed the recent gain recorded by the Kenyan Shilling to the successful floatation and pricing of the Ksh212.3 billion ($1.5 Eurobond) maturing in 2031 that Kenya sold last week.

According to the bankers, the development serves as an indicator of investors’ confidence in Kenya’s economy.

KBA also explained the successful pricing of the Eurobond, at a 10.375 per cent interest rate, which is an all-time high for an African State issuing a bond, is also one of the factors behind the Kenyan Shilling’s recent rally.

Additionally, the Eurobond contributed by increasing the foreign exchange reserves within the economy a move which has served to strengthen the Shilling.

Further, KBA stated that another factor that contributed to the growth of the Kenyan shilling against the Dollar was the successful sale of an infrastructure bond.

“The strengthening of the Kenya Shilling against the US Dollar is rightly attributable to growing confidence in Kenya’s macro-economic performance and outlook, including the recent floatation and successful pricing of a US $1.5 Eurobond,” stated KBA.

The government has already revealed that the infrastructure bond was oversubscribed, garnering Ksh241 billion ($1.58 Billion) which was about three times more than Treasury mandarins were expecting.

These factors combined are said to have positively impacted the Shilling which is currently trading at Ksh141 down from Ksh160 two weeks ago.

Additionally, reports by Reuters indicate that the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) intervened to purchase dollars from traders to curb the Shilling’s volatility.

The report indicated that Kenyans had rushed to sell Dollars owing to the Shilling’s resurgence, with the Central Bank purchasing them to stabilise the economy.

Despite the Shilling showing signs of recovery, economist Churchill Ogutu has warned that Kenyans should not expect the resurgence to be permanent.

“From a short-term perspective, based on the money that is coming in and there is not much import demand, definitely that will prop the Shilling,” the economist told Kenyans.co.ke in an interview on February 14.

Meanwhile…

President William Ruto’s administration spent Ksh104 billion to service external debt between July and December 2023.

This was captured in the Quarterly Economic and Budgetary Review released by the National Treasury detailing spending for the first half of the 2023/2024 Financial Year.

According to the review, 18 foreign nations received payments including; Abu Dhabi, China, Saudi Arabia and the United States.

Additionally, Kenya made payments to financial institutions including; the Word Bank and the Asian Development Bank to the tune of Ksh49 billion.

The country also booked commercial loan payments totalling Ksh85 billion.

Ruto during a meeting with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan on December 3, 2023

“By the end of December 2023, the total cumulative debt service payments to external creditors amounted to Ksh 239.6 billion,” the National Treasury reported.

“This comprised of Ksh134.6 billion (56.2 per cent) principal and Ksh105 billion (43.8 per cent) interest.

China received the lion’s share of the repayments at Ksh72 billion. This was in line with an earlier admission by National Treasury Principal Secretary Chris Kiptoo that a similar amount had been paid in relation to the Standard Gauge Railway and other Chinese-sponsored infrastructure projects.

In the European Union, Kenya made sizeable payments to Belgium (Ksh1.3 billion), Denmark (Ksh156 million), Finland (Ksh218 million), France (Ksh13 billion), Germany (Ksh3 billion), Italy (Ksh7.7 billion), Poland (Ksh58 million), Austria (Ksh75 million), and Spain (Ksh1.1 billion).

Kenya further made payments to Gulf Countries including Abu Dhabi (Ksh12 billion), Kuwait (Ksh105 billion) and Saudi Arabia (Ksh179 billion).

The three Gulf countries sold to Kenya fuel on a 180-day credit line under the Government to Government oil deal.

Other countries that Kenya paid after taking out loans from include; India (Ksh733 million), Israel (Ksh540 million), Japan (Ksh3.7 billion), Korea (Ksh143 million) and the United States (Ksh181 million).

While Kenya paid only Ksh181 million to the United States, it paid Ksh32 billion to the International Development Association (IDA), a World Bank subsidiary.

The United States is the World Bank’s leading shareholder.

International Bank for Reconstruction and Development which is also owned by the World Bank received Ksh3.8 billion.

Other financial institutions that received a huge chunk of loan repayments included; the Asian Development Bank (Ksh10 billion) and the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) (Ksh622 million).

Interestingly, Kenya did not make any payments to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the first half of the 2023/2024 financial year.