How many games should you sample to test whether a betting strategy is profitable or not? I have been testing and back-testing a betting strategy. However, my stats game is not good enough so I can’t tell whether the number of games I have used so far is an accurate representation all bets. I have never invested any cash but on paper with real data from sportpesa. What should my sample size be?

back-testing random guessing?

back testing a coin toss?

too many variables.

Link: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/backtesting.asp

Jibu swali wacha kelele. How many games should constitute an ideal sample size?

There are infinite games. That is the population size. But I don’t know how many games I can use to represent that infinite population (sample size).

I thought ni kitu ya maana

This could be someone’s PhD dissertation. Don’t rush to judge. It’s not just about gambling. You should read Mark M. Carhart’s thesis then you may feel inspired

Swine, whats your qabil?

In but not to discuss the nonsense you have posted.

1,896 games

Then fuck off

Yes indeed.

You cannot predict random events you dumb ferk that is why it is gambling

Kuna time kulikuwa na slow down job, decided to do such, tho. all my strategies were failing at some point. I concerntrated on soccer, I downloaded historical data for 5 years from 8 major European leagues.

Narrow down the odds till you have an equal chance with the hse . .say a game or two max…statistically sioni njia

Mimi naifanya as an experiment. I am just looking to see whether there are any loopholes in local betting systems. I am doing this on paper. Just testing multiple strategies.

I have read about sports arbitrage and it is a sure way of making money. The problem is, all Kenyan betting firms seem to have almost similar odds hence eliminating the chance for arbitrage.

I’ll have to read about arbitrage to get back at you.

Let me explain it to you in a simple way. It mostly works in games with only two possible outcomes (win-lose). You find that two bookmakers with odds that total less than one. That is an arbitrage opportunity. If company A states that player A has odds of *5.0 and company B states that player B has odds of *1.5, when you add the odds, they total 0.867 which is less than 1. Assuming you have Ksh 1,000 to bet with, you stake 230.76 on player A at website A, and 769.23 on player B in website B. Since there are only two possible outcomes, you are guaranteed of making 153.8 regardless of which team wins. The problem with arbitrage is that all betting companies will instantly close your account when they realize you are arbing. Also, arbitration opportunities are very rare to find among kenyan betting websites because it is as if they copy odds from the same source.

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