First, let me start by stating that those shouting “tutam” on social media and in the streets are outliers, and most of them are barely surving (wengi wako msoto mbaya), while the rest are govt rascals and tenderpreneurs. And Ruto, being a distorter of reality, will do anything within his reach to continue projecting the illusion that he is very popular, using his god (money) in an attempt to buy victory, but to no avail.
Now, back to the subject: why Ruto will lose by a landslide in the 2027 elections? I have three analytical indicators that I will use to build my case.
History – Since 2002, no incumbent president has won re-election; all of them have lost, and Ruto will be no exception. Kibaki lost in 2007, leading to PEV; Uhuru lost in 2017, leading to the nullification of the presidential results; and Ruto will also lose, leading to either or both of those outcomes or possibly hand over power peacefully.
Voting patterns – Kenyans often vote based on high voltage emotions and ethnic identity. But come 2027, the majority of Kenyans (regardless of their tribe) will vote based on strong emotions against Ruto. Given the level at which this man has ruined people’s lives and livelihood through avarice, poor governance, hubris and wanton corruption, will fuel a historic vote of no confidence unlike anything seen before. And even if he attempts to manipulate the process (which he is likely to do), he will not be able to overturn the will of the people.
A united opposition – If the opposition remains united, produces one formidable candidate, and ensures that their presidential votes are protected at all polling stations, then Ruto and his minions will have no chance of returning to State House come September 2027.
I am no fan of Ruto, and sincerely hope he will lose come 2027. But I also respect his political acumen plus his ability to mobilize. I am not therefore sure one can wish him away i the coming elections. This is a man who beat a whole deep state at their game in 2022. How much bolder will he be in 2027?
Methinks Ruto will win those elections without even bothering to rig. His political instincts are supreme. This will be pitted against an electorate notorious for resorting to the tribal car,d and who are mercilessly addicted to monetary handouts during campaigns.
I think we give this man more credit than he deserves. All our politicians have the same ‘acumen’ stay in power at all costs, accumulate as much wealth as possible.
Landslide hapana maybe kwa rigging chaos confusion and eventually kwa ncha ya upanga.
Since 2002 all incumbents didnt win round 2 coz of Tinga…he aint here.
2tam down our throats but not without a fight it will be messy noisy.
If political acumen means hoodwinking gullible voters, using God’s name in vain, appealing to the fears and hatred of one tribe against the other, rigging elections and exploiting the system to his advantage, then I must agree with you, the guy is a political genius.
But on the real though, Ruto has perfected the art of Machiavillian tactics and it is this underhand, sly and dishonest methods used to gain and keep power is what many Kenyans are confusing with political acumen.
The guy is very hardworking (that I can’t deny) but he is hardworking for all the wrong reasons. What motivates the guy is wealth and power. This are the 2 things that gives Ruto sleepless night. He will do anything for wealth and power including burning and killing as many people as he wants.
I was expecting a deep analysis showcasing how Ruto will lose the 2027 elections. So disappointed you let your emotions and wishful thinking take over. Who’s this formidable Opposition candidate you have in mind? None of them is formidable. Gachagua has been in government and done nothing tangible to talk about. And we all know that tribal king tag is going nowhere. And if you are thinking about Kalonzo, he’s been there since Kanu/Moi regime and has nothing to show for it. You might ask how about Matiangi? We saw his arrogance during his time at the Interior Ministry and also dead bodies being ferried from many parts of the country to River yala, some 400km away from Nairobi. And Karua? The less said about her the better, she was Raila’s running mate and she brought nothing to the table votes wise. Ruto will win not because he’s a good leader but because he targets those who don’t spend time online/social media. Those are the people who take time to vote. Ruto knows how to play Psychological war fare with the real electorates, plus he has unlimited resources at his disposal both personal and State. And just so you know, he’ll still take about 30% of Mt Kenya. That alone will be enough to destroy opposition prospects.
It’s funny how you say you expect a deep analysis, yet you focused on attacking just one indicator. Why did you ignore the other 2?
Secondly, you claim Ruto will win because he will target those who don’t spend time online/social media. And I assume unamaanisha akina mama mboga, watu wa bodaboda na mahasla kwa jumla.
Hao watu umetaja, I can assure you are the ones who will send Ruto home, jamaa amesotesha watu wengi sana na kuua watoto wao.
True guys is no grandmaster…politics yetu si issue based ni personality reputation bravado and cash weak compromised institutions and most importantly a dumb electorate.
Halafu hapo kwa mama mboga na boda boda…this time for real they can send him home wakitaka ubaya ni apathy is at an all time high. Emotional fatigue. On the real these 5 years have been rough halafu jan 2026 mama mboga na boda boda watafute 57k for their kjsea or whatever its called ndio watoi waende shule…watu wameshindwa hata vile watakula xmas…wasee wamechoka na hii nchi na specifically the president. Guys would just like to wish him away.
So how much wealth did your sugar daddy Uhuru and his thieving father steal? Or it’s now a crime to be rich now that ruto is not a Kikuyu? Pelekeni ujinga Mt Kenya mbwa hizi
Hii akili ya kiupumbavu ndio inarudisha Nchi yetu nyuma. I have never supported the Kenyatta family. Infact Jomo Kenyatta is among the top 2 worst president in Kenya’s history IMHO.
Wewe kama ukabila umekusaidia kutajirika endelea kusuppport ukabila.
But what I know is that tribalism only benefits those who are in power or seeking power, while ignorant Kenyans like you are just pawns in this power game.
The best way to protest is by boycotting the elections they will be rigged anyway so make sure ni kalamenos kwa polling station kama IDi amin dada akue na 99% ..hata yeye hatajishuku.Thats what people.did in Benin 2022 elections na Raila after 2017 nullifications.Ameweka puppet yake Nilote kama IEBC na amekua akirig from 2013 he is crafty
No! That’s not the best way. The best way is for Kenyans to go out, vote, and protect their votes at the polling station.
Remember, polling station results are final. This means any form of rigging begins and ends at the polling station. I didn’t say Ruto will not steal, he will (that’s his second nature), but even if he rigs he will not win if Kenyans remain vigilant and guard their votes at all polling stations the same way Kenyans did in 2002.
In fact, this is how the current government “won” the last elections. Raila’s laxity, demoralised agents, and the absence of agents in many polling stations including his own strongholds were major factors that contributed to irregularities.
For example, in Ruiru, a cousin of mine who worked as IEBC staff told me that Raila’s votes were being added to Ruto’s votes. Why? Because Azimio had no agents present, and IEBC and UDA agents acted in cahoots.
Recently, I watched Gloria Orwoba’s interview on Iko Nini, where she mentioned that in Kisii (an Azimio stronghold), many polling stations also lacked Azimio agents. In fact, Azimio had to rely on UDA copies of Form 34A because they had none of their own, to use as evidence in court. That’s how Raila and his team ended up cooking themselves in 2022.
He will win in 2027.
Period.
But as I say again and again he is very keen on winning again in 2032, 2037, 2042, 2047, 2052 and finally 2057 when he hits 91 years.
In 2027 agents watakuwa wengi and people will not joke around with their votes.
If there are numbers Ruto will be sent home juu rigging large numbers itaonekana.
Their only strategy was to use goons to cause chaos then to stuff the ballot
boxes. Halafu they create ghost polling stations and register aliens as voters. All their plans are known.
