Finally, the reason why Museveni cried about access to the Indian Ocean

News & Politics
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Finally, among the many possible reasons I stated, it’s now clear why Museveni threatened while crying about access to the Indian Ocean.

In the above video he talks about co-investment. He then says they will get to Eastern DRC. What needs to go through the pipeline will go through the pipeline, heavy cargo via train and dual roads for light cargo.

As the resident arm chair analyst of this vumbistan village, I can confidently say he wanted a share of Kenya pipeline.

For those who remember,when Uganda wanted to build a pipeline at first,they wanted the line to go through the current corridor,but Kenya wanted the line to go through the lappset corridor.Uganda pointed out security issues and the fact the lappset corridor was not yet developed. We even had a coalition of the willing made of Kenya Uganda and Rwanda. Kenya played hard under Uhuru and the pipeline was diverted to Tanzanian. But it’s not wise to put all your eggs in one basket.

These are critical issues. The president had to ensure no repeat of 2024 so in his state of the nation address he talked of the privatisation laws, infrastructure fund and sovereign wealth fund which are key instruments. He later met China Road and Bridge Corporation, the company to dual the roads to Mau sumit and the constructor of Mombasa Naivasha SGR.

Uganda maybe mitigating overreliance on Tanzania looking at recent political environment there and past lessons of not relying on one route. It may also be a way of securing a market for her planned refinery. It will be easier given their ownership interest in Kenya pipeline.

All this developments remind me of the recent sell of Turkana oil fields. It’s highly likely the owners are just these politicians and the planned refinery in Uganda will be the place to pump the crude. So Uganda maybe looking at the oil fields and the markets in South Sudan, DRC,Rwanda,Burundi,Kenya,Tanzania.

Going forward, in EAC Uganda is the oil refinery of the region. What a brilliant gamble of building pipelines and sponsoring politicians via any means necessary backed by Uganda people’s army!!! Like how UPDF keeps Salva Kiir in power.

I don’t know the effects on Lappset.Uganda building a railway to south Sudan vs Kenya’s planned juba to Isiolo highway and railway.

In return, I don’t know what Kenya gets and what it loses. As for the Indian Ocean, Turkey is a key player in Uganda of recent and a major player in Somalia. I don’t yet know how it all plays out in relation to the disputed area in the Indian Ocean between Kenya and somalia. But of recent the current Somalia president often visits Museveni and we can say they are close. Also, Kampala is emerging as a favorite hotspot for somalia politicians.

All in all, ever since Lappset was made public, all the target countries have thrown tantrums and tried to find the things Lappset offers them on their own elsewhere. That’s how impactful the lappset idea was. It elavetes Kenya to a very strategic position. Let’s see what happens when everything is settled and the emerging equilibrium, and if the idea will still be feasible.

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https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business-tech/uganda-is-on-track-for-4bn-refinery-project-5257576

About 30,000 barrels need a market outside Uganda

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1st till this very day sijaona any tbreats from M7. Even if he makes a move its a lose lose situation in my opinion.
2ndly listened to the whole so called threat interview…he admired the size and population of the u.s large market for any producer then he compared size ya africa vs india saying india has much more peeps despite being smaller.
Then again m7 isnt interested in exporting ugandas resources…he is for an african market and i have a feeling his convictions are true and genuine. Again almost a decade and a half ago i attended a public lecture somewhere where he emphasised these same sentiments and he even recognised a few women who have made their mark in private enterprise and are not interested in export to foreign markets and strongly believe local markets are good enough if trade and non trade barriers are imposed on non african imports.
Kuna mama alifika form 6 but alianza appiary yake na anauza asali mufti sana hapo. M7 applauded her and rewarded her and a top local uni offered her a biz scholarship.
In short m7 hana haja ya foreigners…si alithreaten some u.s diplomats and deported a few a while ago? Anti homosexuality bill nayo? Huyo mzae hana haja sana na indian ocean its not an immediate priority i. My opinion and even if it is i doubt he would go to war for it knowing pia alifurugana na kagame na kagame anaweza ingilia huko na pia a support adf rebels.
My 2 cents. I aint a pro in such matters.

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It’s not about wars or foreigners but Kenya’s interest as a country. Kenya loses because of lack of foresight, incompetence, corruption,selfish politicians who auction the country for their own benefit.

What Museveni is doing is what Kenya has wanted to do all along ever since.

KPC seats on public land, so the public loses land. Politicians have always salivated.

Kenya had a refinery at Changamwe, despite offees, it opted to turn it into a storage facility and allowed private entities import directly. It later on said it has negotiated a government to government deal.

From newspapers, the entities handling government to government deal later acquired the Turkana oilfields. It’s highly likely the same entities will be major shareholders in the KPC privitazition. They will later own argue it’s cheaper to route the crude to Uganda. No wonder we are talking of sovereign wealth fund so as some cash will be deposited their people don’t make noise they are losing.

Uganda is building a refinery that can refine 60,000 barels. Her needs are just about 30,000 barrels. Acquiring a significant stake in KPC is not about her importing anything since her needs were sorted and her national oil was allowed to import via Kenya, even her crude 3 ports are via Tanzania. So acquiring a stake in KPC is about capturing the Kenyan market in a manner that guarantees a monopoly. Why can’t she just seek other guarantees that Kenya will buy her refined crude? She could even sell to Kenya cheaper, but she doesn’t want to sell cheaper to beat other competitors, why?

After capturing Kenya, Uganda has interests in South Sudan and she will bring south Sudan on board so as to process part of her crude, sell south Sudan refined crude, even export south Sudan crude via Tanzania route, or Kenya route partly if upgraded.

The problem with that is, Kenya was planning a crude pipeline from Turkana oil fields to Lamu. It hopped to convince South Sudan to build a pipeline to Turkana and export part of her crude via Lamu. It also planned refineries at Lamu and a petroleum products pipeline from Lamu Isiolo turkana. Now all that wealth opportunity is being auctioned to Uganda.

In short Kenya is like the biblical Esau. Stupidity and greediness is making him sell his birthright. Now Uganda has a say or a foot in the hydrocarbon wealth and strategic advantage of Kenya. It will always earn indirectly or benefit.

Kenya is not benefitting at all from Uganda’s wealth as we shall continue buying from her. Even our airforce and army may be grounded if Uganda monopolizes through proxies our energy sector and engineers shortages

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Ile story ya privatization ya Kenya pipeline ilikuwa iuzwe kwa Uganda. Now they have that deal, its over. They own the ocean just like they said.

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Damn. Insightful. Thanks.

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Didnt know uganda is INTERESTED in acquiring a stake wah! Ndio naona a few reports online. We are fucked. Hio ni blunder. Hapo tumeblunder mbaya.

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