Cost of Corruption

General
1

Sometimes ago somewhere between 2012-2016, I advised that the government should have prioritized building a mini refinery of about 100k barrels of oil per day. Our current oil consumption is about 60k barrels per day. But the three biggest forex earners horticulture ,tea and tourism can’t cover the oil import bill. With tourism numbers non existent ,we find ourselves with a huge current account deficit and a currency on the tenterhooks.

Fast forward to 2020, no refinery was built but a phantom SGR was built. This is not profitable but increased taxation on imports ostensibly to finance it. The Chinese run it.

Oil taxes average 120% of landed cost. Covid19 has ruined the best of economic growth projection and we are now staring at uncertain future.

The government romanticism with phantom projects and huge expensive commercial debt uptake is threatening to make the Kenyan economy a basket case.

Right now ominous clouds are gathering, first the shilling is undegoing what we call a short squeeze. Foreign investors with exposure to Kenya shilling are dumpling local assets in what we what we call a textbook case of short covering.

The next stage is the dangerous one ,when the shilling falls is disorderly and international speculators sniff that Kenya is likely to default, they will circle like vultures and short the international listed Euro bonds. They will accelerate the tanking of the shilling as only IMF will lend us money. We will become international phariah.

Earlier last year we predicted the full blown effect of this tanking shilling will reach its zenith around June next year.

Various factors will conspire to defeat us at around this with a looming and devastating drought giving the agriculture one two knockout punch.

So how do you prepare for the uncertain times. First position yourself to produce goods and services that can be exported and earn them dollars. Try to do horticulture export, position yourself strongly to do online work and look beyond the Kenyan borders .

You are warned , position yourself to make it big with the coming difficult season. Economic crisis are ruinous and if you don’t act decisively you can die. Don’t be a statistic.

First target on usd ksh is 130, international short sellers can easily push it to beyond 175 by attacking listed Euro bonds. The CBK reserves are dwindling very fast and it’s currently a losing battle trying to maintain the current shilling level.
(mwalim samuel kairu)

2

Interesting… Frightening

3

mtu anafaa aulize hawa armchairs kama kartel ya wazungu aka economic short sellers aka economic hitmen itakubali tutengeneze refinery
utachimba foundation upate “alshabaab” wamekuja kuwakata shingo

4

Yeap, there’re something’s that you just don’t wake up and do, as they’ll upset some equilibrium somewhere else.
You need to be a tough cookie to do so, like Wazito Trump and Putin.

5

We dont need a refinery we are soon going electric

6

as if kipevu I-III zinatumia maji

7

I don’t think Kenya can be allowed to fail because then the entire East Africa would collapse and get run over by shabab. Moreover we have a UN headquarters, so I think we’ll be bailed out. Kenya is too important to fail.

8

@Purple a failed economy is good for business. Moi became the richest man in east africa because of south sudan and Congo. Parasitic owners of capital make more money from failed economies than from stable countries. Kenya cannot be saved. Without a failed economy where will they invest their idle billions of dollars for above market returns?

9

The two of you are part of the problem.

10

Its unfortunate that some learned talkers often discount their contribution to building a corrupt nation. At our level the only contribution we can make is to vote better and campaign for better politics. Trying to deflect the problem and dismiss your contribution in ruining the nation as you continue to engage in tribal politics is the wrong way to go about it.

11

Your raila is the biggest problem. He is about to take us on a useless 14b rollercoaster ride

12

BBI in itself is not corruption. Since 2017 you’ve tried to absolve yourself from any wrong doing yet your actions have had serious ramifications. On this forum, you are actually a face of corruption alongside spear and his ilk.

13

BBI, -unity, and inclusivity of all Kenyans especially wakenya kutokbwa wote equally…
Dollar is weak at the moment, and it’s at 116! Can’t imagine what will happen when it’s strong…
Fortunately BBI comes with Arimis for all Kenyans…

14

Bbi is the mother of corruption. If raila was interested in the country all those ‘good’ suggestions would have been proposed even before bbi. How comes they come as a rider so that we pass the extra positions that the old man has deluded himself he will get just so we pass it. Again we have no regret since 2017. We simply chose the better option and we will do it again come 2022. If Uhuru has ruined the economy, clueless raila would kill it completely. 14b to him is peanuts to be misused.