Betting-increasing probability of winning

Mzee @Gio na wengineo
In this there we shall use poisson distribution to model or come up with almost accurate predictions
Why poisson?
Well poisson being a counting process and coupled with past data can help in predicting goals to be scored
It is used extensively in insurance to predict claim numbers
Remember in stat/actuarial past is used to predict the future and so in this case I have used chelsea s data in the current season [ATTACH=full]32771[/ATTACH]
Predicting less than 2 goals
[ATTACH=full]32773[/ATTACH]
Predicting more than 2 goals
[ATTACH=full]32774[/ATTACH]
Well we know on the pitch alot of factors come into play and so this factors haven’t been factored in in the next thread we shall use Bayes rule to include them.

3 Likes

What? Apa ndio sport pesa imefikisha watu? Do we have to do the calculations manually ama is there an app to crunch the numbers and give us the winning formula?

Acha nimeze mara moja kwanza, alafu nijaribu kusoma tena.

2 Likes

Remember such a thread and saying it would be possible in an app/platform format of sorts www.kenyatalk.com/index.php?threads/arbitrage-in-sport-betting.18853/#post-362198

Gamblers everywhere. The other day niliona Momo swafi iki analyse SportPesa betslip kwa ma3. Nikai show…hiyo bet iko Tu sawa. Tuliposhuka…drink kiasi ma jioni hadi kwa settings.

5 Likes

Anyway how many combinations can we have by selecting one choice from a set of three choices in 13 mutually independent events?

Here to learn.

3^13 different combinations so in short there are 1,594,323 possible outcomes

1 Like

286 outcomes

Weeee wina Ngoma…touch your toes.

1 Like

Niko meeting lattsr

Poa. Lakini @shocks Asha jibu correctly.

hehe…hii ni gani sasa…i must be a junio programmer…but i guess you have to know the underlying rules before writing the script…

Were we programming?

Easiest way to secure your bet Assuming Barca 2.30 Draw 4.10 Arsenal 3.10),…You wonna bet with 2K…First divide your 2000/4.10=488,(place this 488 as a single bet iwe Draw…Then 2000-488= 1512 (place as a barca bet/single),you got 2 bets… If barca wins, you win 1512 X 2.3= 3477… If the game ends in a draw you get your money back,488 X 4.10= 2000,NB…use this in all teams against arsenal…he he

1 Like

Which theory is this one? He he kila siku na mambo zake

1 Like

Well i know this is not programming…i commenting in relation to building a script to run this automatically and not manually as ur doing.

Sounds cool until arsenal wins and you loose your two bets

1 Like

Haha sure bets n value bets tactics but one can easily get sucked into it

ngija arss i win then hio hesabu itakua 2000 x 0 =0