The credibility of opinion polls is being questioned following a decisive win by Kabete MP Ferdinand Waititu over Kiambu Governor William Kabogo, against pollsters’ predictions.
The two were competing for the gubernatorial seat during the Jubilee party nominations in Kiambu County on Tuesday. The MP garnered 353,604 votes against the incumbent’s 69,916.
The result comes barely three weeks after an opinion poll by Infotrack showed Mr Kabogo would get 48.9 per cent of the votes against Mr Waititu’s 31.8 per cent, if elections were to be held on April 7.
STRONGHOLD
By getting the Jubilee ticket, Mr Waititu is almost certain to be elected Kiambu governor in the August 8 General Election because the county is a Jubilee stronghold.
All eyes will now be on the other counties that have been featured by pollsters. In Nairobi, the pollster said Dr Evans Kidero would be re-elected as governor by 35.3 per cent of voters.
According to Infotrack, his closest challenger for the capital’s gubernatorial seat would be Nairobi Senator Mike Sonko, who was competing against former MP Peter Kenneth for the Jubilee party ticket in primaries held yesterday.
In Meru, the pollster said Senator Kiraitu Murungi would lose to incumbent Peter Munya in the governor’s race.
In Mombasa, the survey showed incumbent Hassan Joho would retain his seat by getting 62.8 per cent of the vote, beating Suleiman Shahbal of Jubilee (8.2 per cent).
Na wewe stop reasoning like an illiterate donkey!
Pollsters conducted opinion polls that are valid for a general election
And not party primaries where only paid goons and the jobless vote
Tumia @Ubongo tafasari…humbwer!
Sure, but that is too large of an error to be attributed to timing. There was no earth shaking event that dramatically changed people’s opinions. Therefore, missing the direction so erroneously can only be attributed to incorrect methodology that did not account for something e. g. survey bias.
I have reason to believe that the Ambithology swelled Kabogo’s head even more, and made him very convinced of his victory. At the same time, it made the voters of Kiambu come to the nominations with a ferocity usually reserved for the actual contest.
