State machinery. He has the money and IEBC and the armed forces. He will also buy many politicians to back him.
Will the opposition be united and organized? If the opposition fails on these then a Ruto victory will happen. He will likely also sponsor some presidential candidates to destabilize the opposition.
Raila’s support. That old geezer can never be written off.
Corruption in Kenya is ubiquitous. Those opposed to Ruto - politicians, Church, gen Z, others are corrupt as well. This means that Ruto can buy them and break their unity.
The Kikuyu versus the rest tactic. This is where we are heading and this is what Ruto is trying to promote theough his cohorts particularly the ODM wankers like Kaluma, Wandayi etc.
Turnout. A united and organized opposition backed by great voter turnout would beat Ruto. Unfortunately, he can use tactics to suppress voter turnout especially in known anti government strongholds.
Two and a half years. With 2 & 1/2 years left to general elections, there is still time for the government to start and complete major infrastructural developments rhat could be game changers e.g. the railway from Naivasha to UG, the Limuru to Mau Summit Road. He could also reverse some of the unpopular laws e.g. his attack on payslips. This means that he may yet change public perception of some.
History. Ruto has never lost an election. That says something.
Stable Shilling, GDP growth and whatever else they are calling their achievements. Whether artificially propped or not, people appreciate stability of the shilling. Maybe they will also appreciate the other gains or achievements of the government.
Good weather. Under Ruto the rains have been very faithful leading to good harvests. The low prices for farmers notwithstanding as a result of imports, at least the country has had enough food during his tenure so far.
You may add more or dispute what you feel is wrong.
Next up, I’ll prepare the points that should give hope to people like myself - the anti-establishment.
If the anti-ruto turnout mirrors the 2002 general election, Kasongo goes to Sugoi direct, even with state machinery it becomes difficult to quell angry Kenyans outraged over your govt, Uhunye had state machinery in 2022 and still he couldn’t help The Conman.
Hata wajathe wamechoka na @Agwambo, they are going through denial that he will never be president, for some, they are still angry that he lost AU and a few are bargaining that he be given the PM seat, which wouldn’t make any sense since he’s sat on it before, while the elite joka joks have accepted that age has caught up and he will amount to nothing going forward if he chooses to vie or support Kasongo.
The alien factor is very important. That has to be amongst the top on the list. Ruto will give very many IDs to unvetted aliens for the sake of plugging the huge gap left by murima. He could get up to 3m strong new voters who don’t understand Kiswahili - Somalis, Sudanese and a few Ethiopians
