WSR will get a 2nd term even if the economy collapses. My take concerning how the economic situation in Kenya will affect various categories of the population:
The self made wealthy or the ones whose wealth is ‘legit’.
These people are mostly not flashy and pull strings in the background. Their continued wealth will happen regardless of the economy but locally it will take a hit because their wealth is derived from the people who consume their products. With assets in foreign denominations, the drop in value if the KES is a two way sword.
The politicians who earned riches illegally and their appointees.
These people don’t care what happens to the economy long as they maximize their loot while in power. Some have looted for much longer and have significant assets abroad and assets denominated in foreign currency. Regardless, the interest of those in this category is to steal as much a possible because their wealth can only grow when they are in power. They don’t care much about the rest.
These are the people who care most about basic needs - food, shelter, clothing… in that order probably. They form the majority of the voting bloc and are easily swayed by prevailing circumstances. A good number of these don’t care about anything other than food on the table. This means that for the rural folk who depend on subsistence farming, things may actually appear rosy to them due to better crop production. The easiest group to convince within the shortest time to an election. Has the government lost these people? That’s the only question that is important. They don’t have smart phones and live day to day. It is not easy to sway them because of their lack of good education too!
The so-called middle class
This is the category that has been singled out to suffer. This is the group that is one job loss away from poverty. This group has all sorts of political opinions on social media. With poor economic conditions - high inflation, shilling losing value, rise in cost of living … they suffer the most. However, they are more scared of losing their next parsnip than they are of raising their voices. They’d rather continue pretending and acting fine despite struggling to maintain their lifestyles.
What is for sure is that WSR knows how to take care of his people and so far you’ve not seen any politician or his appointees falling out with the regime. I can assure you that they will be well taken of as they bleed this nation economically to its knees. Close to the eleca strategy will be developed whereby the middle class will blame everyone else except WSR who will come out as clean or helpless.
Very good analysis of our situation hapo vumbinista.
You forgot to add that incumbent vote stealing is one major factor Nabii has control over. Besides, he has pocketed the courts. The fact is if elections are held today, Nabii will be a winner by wide margins despite the noise.
i highly doubt he will win the next election. He doesn’t seem intent on economic matters but the looting right now is on an industrial scale. He knows the ground will be much more hostile in the next election. Even if he steals the election a lot of people won’t want him as president. There will be no good reason to hold onto power under such circumstances since he will have already amassed the wealth that he wants and tasted the power of being president.
It will be better for him to retire having destroyed the economy completely and watch the next president grapple with the problems he created.
I agree with this assessment. Nabii and his cronies will loot everything possible and then disappear into the bundus. The president that will follow in 2027 will inherit the worst economy in Kenya’s history.
I don’t understand why Africans have never figured out how to successfully run a government. The citizens don’t care enough or are just unbothered about all the looting. It’s fun to watch these chickens running their mouths on social media everyday. Change doesn’t happen on keyboards but on the streets.
Wapi I don’t think a default will happen kenya will receive around 2.4 trillions from imf and world bank yes the economy will be in the shitters but a default is very unlikely at this point unless nabii starts running 2 trillion shillings deficit we are halfway there already but a default is unlikely in his first term that’s my assessment as of now
Kenyans can’t choose leaders of integrity because they themselves are not people of integrity. Try employing Kenyans to manage your business and see how they will run it down. Huku Labda mungu atuhurumie atume mutu kama Kibaki…