Worse Than Moi

For those who do not get it, this means that banks have no customers. Their main job is to sell loans, and there are no buyers. Asin hakuna pahali ya kupeleka loan. That’s how shitty the economy is doing.

The problem is over 3 times worse than it was during moi. Expect a recession by next year

  • Declining Business Revenue → Reduced Borrowing → Further Revenue Declines

  • Weakened Consumer Confidence → Lower Spending → Declining Private-Sector Demand for Credit

  • Credit as an Economic Driver: Reduced commercial lending takes time to translate into lower business investments, slower hiring, and reduced production. This lag could be anywhere from 6 to 18 months, depending on the economy’s structure and resilience.

  • Sectors Impacted First: Credit-intensive industries (e.g., construction, real estate, manufacturing) are typically the first to show signs of distress, potentially signaling the start of a broader recession.

  • If the Economy Is Already Fragile: In economies with high debt levels, limited fiscal capacity, or weak financial systems, a recession could begin within 3-6 months of loan contraction.

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No wonder my three banks have been calling me to chat about their loan products.

  1. Toxic politics make the market unstable
  2. Reduced govt. spending due to corruption reduces the opportunities for selling loans.
  3. Capital flight of corruption proceeds means money is not circulating and also 2. above