Like many Kenyans I do not believe in opinion polls. In a country like ours the variables are so many that it is practically impossible to conduct a really scientific poll.
Having said that, it is now obvious that the race for State House has tightened. Jubilee’s 70%+1 dream has evaporated. Nasa has closed the gap to below 10 percentage points of Uhuruto, and the dancing clowns seem to have the momentum.
So, what has led to this dicey state of affairs for Jubilee/Uhuruto, who as early as this year were expected to win with a landslide?
Here are my considered thoughts:
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[I][B]The Jubilee Monolith[/B][/I]
I am on record as stating that trying to push all Kenyans into one monolithic party was a stupid move (@Ice-cube fanya maneno). It deprived Uhuruto of the diversity and vibrancy of the support of smaller parties while creating disenchantment. You only have to consider the case of the likes of Munya, Kabogo and even Alfred Mutua, who has a Jubilee gavana contestant to contend with (how now?) to see the folly of Uhuruto in trying to force everybody into a one-party arrangement.
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[I][B] Saving Lt Arap Mashamba[/B][/I]
The extremely unlikable, nasty, obnoxious, repugnant and repellent demeanor of Arap Mashamba has really cost Uhuru. The less said here the better but this guy could easily have cost the Jubilee ticket hundred of thousands of votes with his matusi, supposed corruption, and arrogance.
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[I][B]Neglecting Strongholds. [/B][/I]
The Gikuyus have a saying, ‘wega uumaga na mucie’ – roughly translated to ‘Charity begins at home’. Yet, no sooner had Uhuruto got into office than they neglected their strongholds. It is as if they thought their tribesmates were obligated to them for eternity. So, the president went on a wild goose chase for votes, support and love in areas that barely gave him 20 votes – Kibera, Kondele, the Coast, etc – while they neglected RV, Meru, Tharaka Nithi and Central. People in the strongholds started asking, don’t we have squatters and slums in Central? Don’t we need roads in Tharaka Nithi? The tragedy for Uhuruto is that they failed to remember the old saying: A bird at hand is better than nine in the bush!
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[I][B]Hubris[/B][/I]
When Kibaki won the 2002 and 2007 (ahem!) elections, he surrounded himself with solid, wise wazees who advised him on a daily basis. The likes of Njenga Karume, Michuki, Kituyi, Musikari Kombo, and Maitha who were political kingpins in their own rights. When Uhuruto won the 2013 elections, they surrounded themselves with broke jokers whose sole pre-occupation was rent-seeking: Bruce Odhiambo, Big Ted, Ole Tumbi, etc. People who add absolutely nothing to the presidency. Because of lack of wise advise, for example, Uhuruto were slow to respond to corruption (the president needed, for example, to press the Judiciary to jail people, threatening even to bring in foreign judges) and cost of living. Nothing perhaps illustrates the political naivety of the ruling duo than this; Raila has strong pointmen in virtually all the provinces - Joho and Kingi at Coast, Wetshit and MaDVD in Western, Rutto in RV, etc. WHO DOES UHURUTO HAVE ANYWHERE?
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[I][B]Indulging Raila and his followers[/B][/I]
A lesson from Kibaki’s first presidency was sorely missed by Uhuruto: never ever indulge a megalomaniac demagogue. In both Sun Tzu’s Art of War and Robert Greene’s 48 Laws of Power it is clearly decreed that rulers must crush their opponents utterly and completely. Trying to rely on ‘development’ to win an opponent’s supporters is simply stupid; crush the opponent and leave the supporters orphaned, then they’ll follow you. When Kibaki allowed Raila to roam the country unhindered in the run-up to the 2007 elections, Raila build the kind of momentum he has now. So what should Uhuruto done? A nation-state is a powerful thing. Uhuruto should have used all state apparatus to block Babuon’s use of county funds to campaign. They should have used surrogates and agencies such as KRA, the NGOs Board and Central Bank to starve Nasa of campaign funds. They should have used loyal elements of NIS to destabilize and subvert Nasa. It is a testament to their ineptness that it is Raila, who is out of power, who is using all the 48 Laws of Power – intelligence (supplied by officers of gavament!), subterfuge, a scorched earth policy, disinformation and manipulation – to win power.
Having said the above, it is my considered opinion that Uhuruto will win. My own prediction is that they will get 53% of the vote, while Babuon will get 45%.
If elections were to be held in December, however, Babuon would most likely have decimated Uhuruto. He has the momentum.
