Why That Surge Of Shillings On Dollars Was Artificial

Foreign exchange experts have warned Kenyans that the shilling is set to weaken in the coming days against the United States Dollar.

In their report, the analysts noted the local currency was projected to weaken due to high demand for the dollar by the fuel retailing companies.

According to the experts, there was pressure on foreign exchange caused by fuel companies who demanded more Dollars to purchase petroleum from oil-producing countries.

“Kenya’s shilling was stable on Thursday, but it could weaken in coming days due to demand from fuel retailing companies,” noted the analysts.

As at Thursday, May 16, commercial banks quoted the shilling at 130.00/131.00 per dollar, the same as Wednesday’s closing rate.

It is worth noting that the dollars are crucial for traders seeking to facilitate trade on the international markets, a major factor that contributed to the high demand for the US currency.

The shilling was also projected to weaken due to the recent gains by the Dollar witnessed in recent weeks that have caused several currencies to drop in value.

The local currency made consecutive gains in recent weeks which saw it strengthen against major currencies in the world.

A recent report by the World Bank ranked the Kenyan shilling as the best-performing currency in the Sub-Saharan region.

The shilling’s gain was majorly attributed to the increased coffee and tea exports by Kenya to other countries and increased diaspora remittances.

Recently, the Non-governmental organisation was also lauded for its role in the strengthening of the local currency through its dollar inflows to Kenya.

Another significant factor that led to the shilling’s stability was the oversubscription of the infrastructure bonds and the repayment of the Ksh310 billion ($2 billion) Eurobond.

Meanwhile Kenya ranked at position 130 among the worst countries for quality of life, the World Citizenship Report showed.

The ranking, which surveyed wealthy individuals in 188 countries for the sector, placed the country in the position tying with Cameroon after garnering a score of 50.8 points.

Monaco led in the sector with a score of 90.9 per cent followed by Denmark, Hong Kong, Finland and Sweden.

“Our global survey of High-Net-worth-Individuals (HNWIs)’ priorities indicated that ‘Quality of Life’ was the most important factor when considering citizenship for 36.9 per cent of participants. Monaco, Denmark, and Hong Kong took the top spots for Quality of Life in 2024, reflecting the high standard of living and wealth these jurisdictions can extend to all their citizens,” read the report in part.

“Our research indicates that the issues which lend themselves to an improved quality of life matter more than ever to HNWIs. When asked, ‘In what areas, if any, do you feel your current government is failing?’ respondents indicated that healthcare, environmental sustainability, and a competitive economy were needs that were not being met by their governments.”

The report further indicated that the level of quality of life was instrumental in HNWIs’ drive to migrate and seek another citizenship.

Globally, the report showed that the quality of life, which tends to measure countries’ standard of living, is cautiously optimistic for 2024 compared to 2023.

“With a gradual reduction in cost of living compared to the highs of 2023, households in countries such as the United Kingdom (UK), India, and the US will find a slightly lessened burden on living standards,” added the report.

The report further ranked citizenships on the basis of safety and security, economic opportunity, global mobility, and financial freedom.

In the safety and security section, Kenya was ranked at position 121 while in the economic opportunity report, the country appeared at position 91.

For global mobility, Kenya appeared at position 86 while in financial freedom, the country nosedived to position 111.

“The methodology of the WCI combines qualitative and quantitative research to make sense of the deep, enduring quality of citizenship through the lens of the HNWI investor. Uniting our unparalleled work in the citizenship solutions industry with data taken from 188 jurisdictions, we used the country data to evaluate five motivators of citizenship,” explained the report.

“We subsequently scored countries’ citizenships out of 100 points for each motivator, with the overall ranking a weighted average of the motivators.”

The Africa Wealth Report 2024 indicated that the number of dollar millionaires in Kenya (those with a net worth of more than Ksh130 million) stood at 7,200 in 2023

The figure was a drop from the previous year’s 7,700 due to instability in the property market as well as issues at the stock exchange market.

Hardly a week after economists and financial experts predicted that the Kenyan Shilling would fall further against the US Dollar, the local currency on Monday, May 20, weakened further against the greenback.

In a report published by Reuters , analysts attributed the weakening of the Kenyan Shilling to a high demand for the Dollar by commercial banks.

The experts further detailed that the Shilling edged lower against the Dollar as a result of foreign exchange pressures caused by fuel retailers and manufacturers seeking the US currency.

As of Monday, May 20, commercial banks quoted the shilling at 131.50/132.50 per dollar, compared to 130.00/131.00 at the end of the Friday, May 17, session**.**

Fuel retailers and manufacturers who sought to trade on the international front were hit by a Dollar shortage thus forcing them to seek it at higher rates.

A resurgence of the Dollar against major world currencies was also attributed to the weakening of the Shilling which was in mid-March this year ranked as the best-performing currency globally.

On Thursday, May 16, analysts predicted that the Shilling would weaken as fuel companies continued to demand more Dollars to purchase petroleum from oil-rich countries.

“Kenya’s shilling was stable on Thursday, but it could weaken in coming days due to demand from fuel retailing companies,” noted the analysts.

At the time of their prediction, the Shilling was trading at 130.00/131.00 per dollar as quoted by commercial banks.

There were fears that a weaker Shilling could mean a return to costlier debt servicing and expensive purchases by importers.

The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) in April revealed that Kenya’s debt had been reduced by Ksh1 trillion from Ksh11 trillion due to sudden gains that were made by the Kenyan currency.

In the same month (April), a report by the World Bank ranked the Shilling as the best-performing currency in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The report by the multilateral lender attributed the performance to several monetary policies implemented by Kenya’s Central Bank which included hiking the base lending rate.

“The Kenyan Shilling is the best-performing currency in the subcontinent as it recorded an appreciation of 16 percent so far this year. After strengthening by 14 percent by mid-February, the Zambian Kwacha has lost some ground and recorded a year-to-date appreciation of 2.4 percent as of mid-March,” the World Bank noted in its report.

Concurring with the CBK, a report published by the World Bank also attributed Shilling’s three-month gain to the government’s decision to repay part of the Ksh310 billion Eurobond acquired by the Kenyan government in 2014.

Increased diaspora remittances and a hike in coffee and tea exports were also cited as factors behind Shilling’s stabilisation against the Dollar.

Oversubscription of infrastructure bonds by foreign investors was also mentioned as a major contributor to the Shilling’s stability.

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