The Ogiek as a people love pyutini but this analysis will try objectivity.
What really is at stake?
Fight for resources if well explained strips down a war into a primal struggle. In Africa they its easy to explain a conflict as a fight for water, grazing land etc. But up north they will never come out to say its resources they want to take by force. They always cite a sort of ideological or moral issue. During second world war hitler invaded Russia ranting “Lebensraum” but he wanted resources – he know of oil and gas and also wanted labour coming from the remnants of a planned Slavic genocide. That is why operation Barbarossa included scorched earth component. Back to the present - now on the one hand Europens and Americans are solemnly talking of a tyrant who must be stopped and on the other hand Russies saying watu wao wananyanyaswaa. But the unsaid purpose of the conflict is resources. Note that in the attached map The most hotly contested area has a high concentration of mineral resources. This is what everyone wants. There are more of those in Crimea and the Bleck Sea.
Affirm super power status
Super power is highly sought after position because of prestige and influence. This translated into business leverage and more wealth. Wars are used to rank powers. First and Second World Wars degraded old super powers, principally Austria, UK and France. Blocked ambitions of Axis powers like Japan Germany and Italy and elevated US, Russia and China. Note that a super power is defined by a multiplicity of all weather ports. Russia is fighting for Bleck Sea ports so as to improve its superpower claim. At the end of the war in Ukraine, the ranking may be re-set. Here, watch China. Chinko wants to score power points by brokering peace. I doubt if Chine would ever want to help Rus. Un URSS/Russie faible c’est un Chinoise rȇve humide.
Assert EU above NATO
Since the start of its existence, Russia has been a bi-continental country with a dual raison-de-etre, prevent intrusions from deep Asia to keeping Europe European and second has been to Protect Slavs wherever they may be living.
Since the start of its ‘special operation’ Russia is now no longer considered European by the west. Even Putin in a state of the nation address said its better being Asian than to be considered part of the ‘perverted’ west. Will get to the perversion issue later.
Europeans now consider them in the same treat category given to Ottomans and Mongols and this is why they are determined to make Ukraine part of their Union.
dorobo mentioned in earlier posts that the EU – Russia split is a 2000 year old replay of the East – West Roman Empire rivalry. This escalated when the Empire Christianized and two varieties of Christianity emerged from the two halves. Roman Catholic/Greek orthodoxy in the west and Eastern Orthodox in the East. This religious slant adds high octage fuel to the conflict.
The Muslim angle – Central Asia has many Muslims and they seem to be on Russian side. This is why Zelensky severally has labelled Russia a terrorist state in order to win sympathy from the ‘Christian’ west. Sending Leopards and Leclercs to Ukraine is therefore a very Christian thing to do. Ukraine is a crusade, a replay of what took place about 1000 years ago when European armies after getting blessed by a Pope headed to the middle east for some anti-muslim action.
Biden’s visit to Kyiv may be in reaction to the view that Europeans seem to be trying to taking the lead over NATO. It is America pushing the NATO agenda but Europeans are doing their own war harambee to defeat Russia. NATO is greatly weakened by South Slavic members who because of kinship with putin have all along been sulking on the sidelines of anti putin NATO activities. The polar opposite is the Baltic states that historically hate Russia. Poland though stavic has a staunch historical hatred for Russia. They also have a considerable Baltic and Germanic component that keeps its kinship feeling with putin to a fraction of a fraction. EU is growing balls.
Soviet vs Russian Federation
Fighting a 21st century war with Soviet weapons and military doctrine gave Putin and the old guard generals a lesson they will not forget in a hurry. There is need for more decentralization of command especially in operation areas. Allow tactical decision be made by field commanders. This protects boots on the ground from bumbling generals perched on a Moscow bar stools drunken on vodka and ordering wave after wave of frightened conscripts into meat grinders. That is how Russia lost many fine people including spetsnatz companies, whole armoured formations and naval infantry (marine brigades). About Marines, when you hear American are deploying marines somewhere, jua hawo watamaliza kazi. With marines you given them a broad order and leave them to improvise whatever pathway to victory. They do that in a self sustaining formation known as an expeditionary force. This force has its own navy, airforce, infantry, recce, armour etc. A marine colonel = an army 3 star general, if you get what dorobo is saying. Putin may consider adopting such innovations because Russian population has been on the decline and this war will leave them vulnerable to infiltration by Nigerian Luhya and Somali breeding machines.
American Infiltration of the Kremlin
There are traitors in the Kremlin. Wagner knows that and is why their leaders is always criticizing the Russian ministry of defense. The spies and traitors are betraying operation details to the enemy. The traitors are deliberately mismanaging operations eg ordering troops into direct fire without cover, botching up supply lines. There are generals profiting from betrayal of Putin. Americans are deep in Ukraine, remotely or on the ground. They provide fire coordinates in real time. In collaboration with Russian traitors they know exactly where to strike to inflict maximum damage. The boasts made about the precision of their artillery is nonsense because they have inside knowledge of what to hit in real time. The Ukrainians are getting fed with coordinates and this is what cut the legs of the special operation. Putin anachezwa na watu wake and had better clean house or else. (the Ogiek have time-tested tools that can smoke out those traitors; if Pyuteen wants our services we only want a few ural mountain goats and some tartar hunting dogs in return).
Nuclear war?
Not likely? The principle of mutually assured destruction is a tool of negotiated conflict where a nuclear power pushes the other till the penultimate nuclear alert is arrived at. At that point they talk down their hostility and negotiate with the one who blinked first having to concede more. But from an African and Asian and Latin American perspective, the west most deserves some radioactive booms for all the homosexuality they have been promoting.
Can Russia fend off NATO superweapons?
Many heavy weapons that Ukraine gets have not lived up to the game changer hype they get during delivery. The reason for this is that the war is nothing more than a testing ground for military technologies. Whatever is getting delivered there is being experimented upon using live targets and this has a direct effect on share prices and profits for the manufacturers. Russia military contractors are having the same fun as the west as they have been busy innovating counter actions. Therefore the much hyped Abrams and Leopards are simply going on a military like Safari Rally. Nothing more to see here, move along.
How much longer will this war last?
Not more than a year from now
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