It has long been known that the kingpin era is over, even though you still have clowns like Gachagua pretending so hard that they speak for kikekuyus. Kalonzo, Ruto are probably the only ones of that generation left. There will be in the short term pretenders purporting to be heirs to the Luo vote but it won’t happen. Things will devolve into multiple centers of power for those people. In a way it’s a good thing for them, the leaders have to offer more without a cult of personality free ride. Change in status quo brings about competition of new ideas. The only parallel in Kenya we have to this is 2002 and CoK 2010.
Ruto has already quietly brought about BBI with his various outreaches to the status quo, sons of Moi and Kamau wa Ngegi. And he effectively controls Parliament and can do whatever he wants. And what he will likely do is capture Nyanza, Western, Northern Kenya, Coast to add to Rift Valley and probably extend his term. The 2030s will be tumultuous in the world as the liberal world order comes to an end anyway, nobody will care for mundane issues like term limits. Kenyan sentiment has already been brainwashed to yearn for the mythical “benevolent” dictator. It would have been known to those who need to know that Raila’s health has long since been failing and arrangements made for a world without him.
His block all over Kenya is up for grabs, the luo sheep mentality is over they won’t vote as a block for one party especially when it comes to MPs and Governors .
Apart from cocaine sniffing Babu , I don’t see any luo leader that is charismatic enough to take over the Luo block .
Orengo, Nyongo are a sneeze away from sayuni
Mbirioneas Ojienda, Kidero don’t relate with the common mwananchis .
The only person if washed properly who is capable of filling RAOs shoe is Governor Obado, this cat can whip all Luo Nyanza leaders to order.
The discussion around whether Babu Owino or whomever will step up is totally wrong. What I’m saying is that the king pin era is over. It’s a totally different paradigm now.
The concern actually should be whether ODM party will hold.
It’s because they are the mirror to the kikekuyu status quo governance and have been at odds since the country started.
By true ethnicity luos are the second largest ethnicity (Kalenjin and Luhyas are amalgamations). So it’s relevant to Kenya’s ethnicity based politics. I know people are talking about Goon Z. But the demographics haven’t shifted to allow for manifestation of their wet dreams. There’s not enough urbanization for middle class agenda to be central, young people don’t vote so jobs are never going to be key political issue and the regional development differences rooted in history makes it difficult to move away from ethnic based politicking.
How is he a kingpin yet negotiating with rejects like Kalonzo and Martha Karua? C’mon man. If he was what you say he would be the obvious candidate to run even if it would antagonize other sections of Kenyans who won’t like another kikekuyu president simply because of the votes on the table. He is not king pin. He can’t deliver turnout and you know this, especially not with Raila’s death.
The way forward is strengthening devolution as was originally intended. More resources to the counties and letting each county and tribe manage its own affairs
Kikekuyus can never accept this without plunging the country into war. Their elites thrive on Nairobi centralization, look at Thika Road project to connect central Kenya to Nairobi even more. If we were export oriented projects would lead to Mombasa, Lamu and our neighbors.
And propping up colonial political economy with sijui tea, horticulture, coffee and such shite. And Ruto is not a pro-devolution President. We haven’t had a pro-devolution leadership since we got the Constitution, it’s funny.