Last month of May Kiev was targeted by Russian missiles and drones unprecedented 17 times. The attacks have been sustained over June and it seems something is going on. Similar attacks have taken place in other parts of Ukraine. This month-long barrage pushed dorobo to come up with the usual long-winded semblance of analysis of progress in the war.
Russia’s main intensions for this barrage is to degrade Ukraine’s ability to conduct a decisive counter offensive to push Russia back to where it started in 2014. There has been talk of that counteroffensive ever since zelennskuma received heavy weapons and training for his troops worth tens of billions of dollars. We thought this counteroffensive could have commenced in bakhmut earlier this year where stopping Wagner’s advance would have sapped Russian morale. But Zelenskiptawirit said the very heavy German Leopard2 MBT and the Challenger 2 main battle tanks could not maneuver about the muddy fields (effect of melting snow and ice during spring) near that city so ‘we are waiting till the ground dries’. Eventually Bakhmut fell and still no Leopard tanks were sighted in the environs. There have been sporadic attempts by Ukrainians to take on Russians who have dug defensive lines along the Donbas. Lack of an expected 1944-like D-day swarm (a tactic favoured by NATO who are advising and arming zeleng’etaisky) may be attributed to this resurgence of Russian missile and drone attacks.
The ongoing Russian missile and drone barrage may be a new form of warfare that can be added to curricula of pragmatic military schools. The conduct of this type of war is probably best done by psychopathic nerds who have grown up with game consoles and little sunlight. Russia may have embraced these nerds as its new archetype of a super soldier. They are taking up place among traditional special force who are usually tasked with delicate operations like intelligence, sabotage and assassinations. SFs espouse small unit tactics behind enemy lines meant to cause maximum havoc. It seems that among advanced militaries, Russian doctrine has limited the scope for special operations and in this war they have consistently shown a preference for (under)-utilizing their special operators (spetsnaz) as light infantry within a larger brigade formation where they participate in soviet-style human wave maneuvers supported by the ubiquitous heavy artillery. This approach has unfortunately cost lives of many a ‘naza’ whereas replacing a single one is not easy. In their novel role as super soldiers, the nerds seem to have exceeded expectations. In fact this idea of military nerds was alluded to in the 8th episode of the 27th season of the Simpsons cartoon series (and yes, the conspiracy theory is true, The Simpsons can predict the future).
Supported by a good supply of missiles coming from a sustained production by Russian military industries as well as post-2014 stockpiles, the barrage has been consistent. It also seems the Iranian drones may now be in production by local Russian industries. It gets better. The nerds have been using complex firing tactics aimed at confusing the air defenses so they waste missiles. While it was considered that mobility of the air defense systems was a strength, the nerds have been able to innovatively cancel out this advantage. The cheap drones are fired first so that they can identify the location of air defense systems using on-board cameras. The AD coordinates are configured and transmitted to the GPS of the Russian cruise missiles that are already airbone and they show up from different directions to take out the very expensive targets before they are moved. Brilliant chess moves, the ghost of GM Alexander Alekhine approves.
About the missiles, Russians have not used the Kinzhals possibly due to hacking of their flight paths by NATO. Similarly, they have had to stop use of those missile’s launchers – the MiG31s. after at least two were shot down last April possibly by British long-range and hard-to-intercept Storm Shadow missiles. Due to lack of air supremacy this time not just over Ukraine but also near the border, the Russians have had to launch other missiles from deep inside their territory. A variety of missiles were used in the latest bombing campaign chief of which was the high precision, jamming immune, maneuverable and long range Kh-series cruise missiles launched from Tupolev long range bombers from over the Caspian Sea, far from the now unsafe Russian frontier.
There are indications that this campaign has been successful. Judging by lack of bragging from wobbly-legged Biden, the two units of the very expensive and much-hyped Patriot AD batteries that Ukraine got last April have been operational for less than a month, having been taken out in the highly coordinated barrage. Zelenskumbaff is currently in America appealing for replacements and a lot of ammo. There are also indications that some of the much vaunted German IRIS-T ADs have also been made into scrap metal. Now NAzitos have purposed to ramp up deployment of deadly Flakspanzer Gepard tanks supplied by Rheinsmetal. This Gepard is not your ordinary tank, it has a turret which can swivel 360 degrees and mounts two heavy anti aircraft machineguns – the type that fill the sky with hot lead. They are primarily purposed for battlefield deployments to provide close air support for field combat operations. Their mobility and supposed success rate in bringing down shaheeds and the Kh cruise missiles will see greater deployment around vital installations in Kiev and other places. This big scary toy may join the long list of ‘game changing’ weapons that will be neutralized in the battlefield.
The night before and after our Madaraka Day, Russia reduced to rubble building housing headquarters of Ukrainian military intelligence directorate GRU. This target was very significant because it was a centre for receiving western intelligence, data processing and planning for the expected counter offensive. The head of intelligence considered an ultra-nazi was also a target for assassination. And yes, Zelenskihii has also been targeted and with that in mind you can understand why of late he has hardly been in Kiev. Aliwekwa wanted after the purported May 3 Ukrainian drone attack at the Kremlin, Ako mafichoni.
Staging points for troops being sent to the frontlines have also been under attack. currently there are up to 40,000 Ukrainians returning from training in other countries. The train is the main mode of transport in Europe and this explains why civilian train stations have come under attack in this barrage. Similarly, this attack on train stations aims to cut supply lines so as to disrupt logistics for the UKr frontline. Transportation is a very dynamic activity and for lack of better options, Russia has depended a lot on human spotters to relay targets. Conversely, Ukraine receives a lot of intel on Russian targets from very advanced US and NATO aerial and astral spy assets. Russia efforts to conduct matching surveillance has been severely limited by several factors. But now there are indications that the May barrage may have been aided by a high resolution radar-monitoring spy satellite that Russia could either have borrowed from Iran or its own that may have been recently launched in secret. About that, dorobo is a bit unsure but new details on this will emerge sooner than later.
In situations where transportation of military logistics is successful, the attacks will follow them to depots. other targets were energy infrastructure which was Putin’s costly and highly criticized obsession in the 2022/23 winter campaign. An airbase in the town of Starokonstiantyniv that is reportedly home an aviation brigade that operates the SU-24 jets was attacked on May 29th. The target was selected because the planes have been modified to carry and launch the British storm shadow missiles that had in April and May terrorized Crimea and other parts of inland Russia. The runway, planes and fuel and possibly some of the feared British missiles were damaged or destroyed. You will know this is true if you hear that patel yapping about the need for more sterling pounds to buy more missiles.
Also Russia expects an amphibious attack on its main ports of disputed Crimea. The last Ukrainian navy war ship was decimated in a tactical missile strike in the midst of the May 29th barrage. This ship had amphibious landing capabilities. Given that Ukraine’s other naval assets were seized during the annexation of Crimea, it currently is not clear the kind of support NAziTO will offer to effect such an attack. Russia still does not have total dominance over the black sea due to vulnerability to aerial and sea-borne drone and missile attacks. This sector of the war is still highly contested.
So far, about 200 billion dollars has been provided as aid to Ukraine by US and NATO. In a year, the US buys from Africa goods worth about 40 billion. Similarly, Africa exports to the EU goods worth about 180 billion dollars. This gives you an idea about the massive scale of aid to one country. Russia’s missile/drone barrage has aimed at bleeding the expensive donated Ukrainian air defenses. The strategy seems to be working because beginning of this month Biden asked for an additional 300 million dollars to buy ammunition missiles for Ukraine. German which is the European lead for the war similarly asked for a similarly large amount to feed its weapons and ammo supplies to UKr.
Now you see where the chess game is heading. The long-term aim of the Russian attacks is to provoke donor fatigue which would humble the dwarf expert beggar sillynsky and force him to make pro-russian concessions while negotiations for a truce.
extra extra - tufununu za dorobo, unsubstantiated but possible – ni kubaya
1. Attack from the North
There is possibility of a second go at a ground decapitative attack at Kiev coming from nearby Belarus. What’s the evidence? a) Movements of nuclear missiles to Belarus possibly as a precursor to its declaration of war. b) Russians have been busy training of Belarusian soldiers. c) a lot of Cubans have of late migrated to Belarus and they volunteered for military training. c)President of Belarus reportedly very sick, a ruse to disguise whereabouts
2. Entry of Serbia to Russia
Serbians are ultra pan-slavists, the Slavic equivalent of Nazis. They are deeply loyal to Russia. In May we had some demonstrations in Kosovo which is a conflict flashpoint policed by KFOR which is a NATO peacekeeping force. There is the possibility Serbs tried to use those demonstrations to provoke a violent response from KFOR that would prompt the Serb government to declare war on NATO. But nato cleverly sidestepped the trap and sided with the aggrieved Serbs. For sure, serbs who ignited the first world war may want to come in for mother Russia, but the hatred they have for turkey may complicate any sympathy Erdogan may have for its embattled neighbour.
3. Bined/NATO does not approve of Ukraine’s attacks inside Russia but likes it.
Midst of drone strikes in Moscow and sabotage raids by shadowy guerillas most likely special forces trained by US/NATO. The now-feared Wagner thugs may be silently pulling out some hunter units from Bakhmut to go after those tu-militia.
