For those that are old enough or listen to first hand accounts of the older voter generation, the strong man politics have always been about coups. Someone’s star shines in the mountain while another goes dim. This is true for even a once gallant freedom fighter like Koigi Wa Mwere who would’nt get an MCA seat today.
From the start of multipartyism, we had people like Arthur Magugu and Matiba being the heavyweights before the tide eventually turning to Kibaki and a rejection of Kamwana. Come 2007, the once favorite Martha Karua as a possible successor started breaking ranks while Kamwana officially took the reigns as the warlord and protector. Kibaki personally had no love for Uhuru, having worked for sometime to undermine his authority before the ODM breakaway shifted allegiances. Mzee Kibaki would have preferred a more moderate successor. With the 2010 constitution specifically designed to send Kibaki home and head-off another Moi dictatorship, the sharks were circling. From Peter Kenneth, now Karua, legend Paul Muite,… all wanted a piece of the Kikuyu electorate. But it was Kamwana who both had the money and the notoriety as a vanguard and also the fame to command the masses. Uhuru might have been delusional to think he would hold the reigns forever even after the Kibaki debacle. Afterall, Karua ran on Kibaki’s party. This wouldn’t be his or her last miscalculation. They both didn’t take the lessons.
Even now as we ponder how Gachagua stole the mountain from Uhuru then got the seat and the rug pulled under him, we can only speculate what the average voter will do next. Maybe another upstart from nowhere will galvanize the masses after Rigathi’s star starts to dim. Maybe Karua, Kioni, Wamuchomba,… and others that we haven’t considered will have a change of fortunes. Afterall, Kibaki had to wait his turn from Jomo all the way to the 21st century.
