Guys see below my analysis, i have a template and we can change numbers where you dont agree . But look like Nasa are winning this thing.[ATTACH=full]115955[/ATTACH]
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Your % are wrong in Marsabit, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera. Jubilee is leading huko by bigger margins. Narok umepatia CORD kura mob, Migori umesahau kuna wa Kuria, Kiambu kuna votes nyingi sana za babu
Canaan Here we come.
UOTP
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suggest percentages hizo places umesema boss. Like i asked hapo juu
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Analysis iko tu sawa…mawimbi yametanda
I would recommend uanze na ile excel ya @Okiya, turnout haitakuwa as high as last time, kumbuka 2013 the register was created a few months to the elections. Sahii register iko na watu wamededi, wengine wanachunga ngamia za abdul e.t.c. nitaseti yangu soon then will tag you
fiti boss… nipe link ya okiya nicheki excel yake…searching and i get it before you send ntakushow ulenge.
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Kajiado?
Huwezi make conclusion na only one year of elections. The margin of error is too large as you have insufficient information and data credibility is almost is nil. Variables are too many, hata hiyo mambo unaambiwa hapo juu doesn’t cut it.
American pollsters got it wrong and you think excel itasaidia? Unless you actually did an opinion poll and had a large base of respondents from various parts of the country as sample space, statistically, this is a task in futility.
ION. RWNBP.
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American pollsters did not get it wrong. Remember Hilary won the popular vote like they predicted.
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Ultimately she lost the elections, that was my point. Statistical analysis is very complicated procedure.
If you have time you can read : What Went Wrong With the 2016 Polls? - The Atlantic
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I
I see your point but the polls were right. Most people (99% ktalkers) dont understand that the popular vote does not determine the winner in the US. The polls predicted Hilary winning the popular vote. And they were very accurate. In the same way Al Gore beat George Bush in number of votes but lost the election. There is no way to predict the electoral college count ( even by using statistics). This ultimately determines the winner.
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But they also predicted that she would win most of the states she lost. They were wrong
UoTP, ni hayo tuu
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Bro, you are wrong on Kajiado. 60% will go Jubilee’s way.
upuss. Tukutane kwa debe tarehe nane.
I always wonder, what happened in Mandera (94% TNA in the last elections) to make armchair analysts make it a battleground?
Halafu eti in Kajiado Babuon will get 8 out of every 10 votes cast? KAJIADO?
Mko na mchezo sana.
Endelea kuota… Watu wamehepa Nairobi sanaa and environs, am on the ground… …hizo ni kura za baba imekunywa maji. Am on the ground Na najua what am talking about
Mombasa is more 0.8 Nasa, not 0.7. I say that as a Coasterian. Last election, not a single MCA or MP was from Jubilee!!
There is hell in no way Nasa is getting 25% of the vote in Meru, Nakuru and Uasin Gishu. More like 10% at most!!. 0.1 for Nasa and 0.9 for Jubilee in all three!! Meru support for Raila has alwyas been overstated.In the last elections, only 8% voted for Raila.Mandago is not going to have an impact on Ruto’s home turf in the slightest!
Nakuru is around 70% Kikuyu and 20% Kalenjin.(Yes, 70% Kikuyu, all the 11 constituencies in the county save for one of the Kuresois,Nakuru town West and Rongai has a Kikuyu majority)
Laikipia is over 80%Kikuyu!!There is only one constituency with with few or no Kikuyus and that is Laikipia North.People seem to have forgotten Nanyuki and Nyahururu are in Laikipia!!There is no way Nasa is getting 40% there.A maximum of 15%, So in the case of Laikipia it is
0.2 Nasa and 0.8 Jubilee
Tharaka-Nithi, NASA can forget.The people of Tharaka-nithi are not Merus!!They have a similar vote pattern with Kikuyus.
Migori,Kurias will vote for Uhuru,around half.So Migori ,give it a 0.1 for Jubilee.
Marakwets were recently armed by Ruto against the Pokots.I doubt Raila will get a single vote there.In fact, that county should be 0 for Nasa and 1 for Jubilee
Nasa virtually has no contender in Marsabit.Both Uttur’s Frontier Party and the Jubilee candidate support Uhuru coz he promised the loser a job in Government.Nasa has no hope there .At most 0.1 Nasa 0.9 Jubilee
Also Taita Taveta is more 0.6 Nasa and 0.4 Jubilee and it can still be 0.5 ,0.5 there. Jubilee has gained ground ,especially in places like Voi
Tana River the same.The current governor will stay and he is campaigning for Jubilee.
Lamu is actually 0.6 JUBILEE and 0.4 Nasa. The Swahilis there support Uhuru(unlike those in the rest of Coast)
Manderra, just a slight adjustment, 0.7 Jubilee 0.3 Nasa
As for Bungoma, I would have agreed with you in the past, until Ken Lusaka, the guy who procured sh 100,000 wheelbarrows was leading in the opinion polls this week.Someone from those sides, tell us!!
As for Nairobi.The balance of power shifted this week with Nasa supporters leaving the city in droves to vote in their rural counties.So it is more like 0.6 Jubilee to 0.4 Nasa
Dont confuse pollsters and newsmen. And newsmen hypothesizing outcomes, for that matter. If you watched CNN at that time, they would say if Hilary wins this and that, and Trump wins this and that Hilary wins. The key word is if. Not when. I dont remember any credible poll predicting the states- especially the swing states ( assuming you understand those). They just couldn’t possibly have the data to do so. The reason for this is the same reason why they do not use popular vote count ( and instead use electoral college votes) in the final tally. The race is ultimately determined by the swing states.