Govt is in panic mode because the violence might be two pronged> Incase NASA alleges rigging there will be pockets of demos in Nrb, Nyanza and sections of Msa. Demos will be crushed in a week .
But this will be childs play compared to the super competitive Gubernatorial races across the country. Most governors are voted in based on clans numerical strength or an alliance of clans or tribes at the county level. This is where to expect fireworks, sporadic violence even in perceived jubilee strongholds.
Some counties may vote in alliances of small clans and vote out candidates from the majority clan or tribe e.g Uasin Gishu, Marsabit, Siaya,Wajir,Busia, Isiolo,West Pokot,Kisii ,Garissa ,Laikipia etc…in short , most counties will end up hotspots , a challenge to our police. Expect KDF on the streets.Police may be overstretched.
Finally, the third group who may ignite the relatively small demos to an uncontrollable riots are the millions of frustrated unemployed youths across the political divide. Scenario 1- youths make it a class war and take advantage of unrest to vent frustration by bringing down govt. 2) foreign NGOs take advantage of unrest and millions of unemployed youths rain cash to promote govt change, a kenyan “spring”.Just remember TZ supports NASA etc .
These NGOs may fuel violence so we can have Coalition govt and the loser will be DP Ruto and Kalenjins may start another bout of violence.
IG Boinett and NIS DG Major Kameru ,the stakes are high in this election. It will be the toughest challenge of your careers , think outside the box.
solution ni govt ikinusa signs za violence, curfew with delivery ya mzinga every homestead else jerrycan ya maziwa for teetotallers ama namna gani @gashwin :D:D
if each one of us can resolve to not hurl an insult not throw a stone , to not fight for someone who will his family out at the sniff of violence and then we will be okay, i may want Uhuru to take the next five years, but i want my freedom to walk around to speak my mother tongue to do business to live without fear more, I pray everyone will want these things more than a person
the only place that will burn on the behest of gubernatorial contest is luo nyanza, we have already seen what the likes of Okoth Obado are capable of.
In central for example, the few incumbents who lost in the nominations and decided to be independents, did so without any fuss. no body in the greater central and rift valley is going to fight.
Apparently, post election violence was also devolved. I also see fireworks will be in the gubernatorial races especially in counties with different tribes. It is unfortunate. Luckily the uthamaki kingdom is not fragmented with sub-tribes. Rift valley especially kule kwa akina Buzeki might be a hot spot. Also, kule kwa waluhya. I heard that there are so many luhya subtribes that wao wenyewe hawaelewani. Is it true that two people may identify as luhya but not comprehend each other’s language?
While others are thinking of peace, youths organizing peace walks and forums, Others are imagining violence. Young Man the experts have mapped potential hotspots and have a response plan in place. Rest easy Kijana.
We all wish there will be no violence. However, we can use the nominations as a blueprint reminiscent to predict how the actual elections will unfold. Were the nominations peaceful? No. Now you can imagine how the actual election will be where all the stakes are. Some presiding and returning officers ran for their lives in some cord strongholds.
his family out at the sniff of violence and then we will be okay, i may want Uhuru to take the next five years, but i want my freedom to walk around to speak my mother tongue to do business to live without fear more, I pray everyone will want these things more than a person