Tigray forces vs the Ethiopian military

Just going through the web. The Tigranyan forces have all but overrun both the Eritrean and Ethiopian military bases in Tigray and took thousands of both governments soldiers captives. Tigranyan forces, who have been on the backfoot since last year and have been launching guerilla warfare, resorted to conventional warfare and took the two big militaries head on with surprising victorious results. Reports indocate that most of the top Ethiopian military officers(before PM Abiy Mohammed sacked them ) were Tigranyans and this might have given them a good tactical advantage as they fought this war. The battle to reclaim the regional capital Mekele will be a great study in modern warfare hadi hapa in our officer’s school in Karen. The rebels victory against 2 heavily armed adversary will be discussed for a while keeping in mind that the Ethiopian military is seen as one of the best armies in Africa. Military enthusiasts are watching on how operation Alula unfolds. Egypt too is watching very closely as Ethiopia battles local insurgency in different fronts. Kenya, an Ethiopian traditional ally with an existing military pact remembers all too well its policg clash with our neighbor in regards to Somali. Let the games begin

Someone explain to me this war…
Im so confused.

Never underestimate the value of good intelligence in a war. If these reports are true then I believe this was probably the decisive advantage the Tigrians had.

For example, the Japanese lost the Battle of Midway (a decisive battle in the pacific which the Americans were outgunned) because the Americans had intelligence and knew the japanese numbers and battle plans. The Japs never recovered from this battle as they lost too many aircraft carriers.

The Brits at Bletchly Part had broken German codes and were passing on information to the soviets. Infact, Stalin new of major upcoming battles before German field commanders did. The Soviets were never told of the source of this intelligence.

These Tigrians knew the exact state of the Ethiopian army and possibly could have used this intelligence to gain the upper hand

But also, remember that Tigrians cant win this war on the battlefield. The federal govt has too many resources that completely outmact the Tigrians. They may win in the short run but will loose a long war

Mnyambo wa punda. They can win a battle or two, but the war will be something else.

Terrain iliwafavor and ENDF being an invading force they just had to wait for their initiative to go just long for them to tire and start hitting them back…You can’t really beat an enemy who simply has time and terrain on their side something Muricah is learning for the umpteenth time in Afghanistan. But Abiy will play the long game block all aid and let Tigray explode from inside hunger and impatient of civilian looking at the regional government to solve their issues.

Tuko nyuma ya Abiy

Tigrays fought a 30- year war to depose the government of Mengistu Haile Mariam. Once they gained power and Meles Zenawi, a Tigray, became prime minister, he allowed his Tigray brothers to secede from Ethiopia to form Eritrea. So, it seems Tigrays are always fighting the government unless they are the ones leading the government.

Because Eritrea is majority Tigray and their language is actually Trigrinya, Abiy should be very careful, Eritrean army may be betraying him.

That said, Tigray region as an independent country will be land locked and dependent on either Ethiopia or Eritrea for supplies.

Tigrays from Ethiopia and Eritrea are all over the world and I suspect some of the information you are reading is their propaganda

Ethiopia is itself landlocked.

Eritrea is just Ethiopia in a diff flag ona News.

Am waiting for the next chess move from abiy, don’t underestimate his smile. I recall his masterstroke when he went to Asmara, he knew he needed isiahs to checkmate the North.
He just took cover to let the world think he actually lost the conflict, mekelle was snipers paradise a few months.
Let me source for solid ground news from the mountains

Do you happen to know the exact reason why Kenya and Ethiopia clashed at the border? Something like this has never happened with previous regimes

Hao wanasoma kitu kweli? They’re expecting plush parastatal appointments from Gen. Bogi Benda. Their failure in asymmetrical warfare exemplified by the failure to put Al Shabaab out of commission is something they should be focusing on.

It’s likely that TDF has been heavily funded by Egypt and Sudan due to the GERD dispute. It’s also a fact that Ethiopia is actually broke and can’t afford a costly war especially when there are at least 2 more armed groups seeking secession from the country.

If there’s anything to be studied from that nation, it is how not to rule a financially constrained, heavily populated and deeply ethnically divided nation.

Chess move? Are you serious?

His nation is broke, more divided than ever, under threat of Western sanctions and facing 3 separate rebellions financed by neighboring powers.

If there’s a chess move here, it’s called checkmate. His arrogance has put him in the worst position any political leader could hope to be in. Right now, his best move is reaching a compromise to avoid the ICC and a safe passage to exile.

Tigray has access to funding and support from Sudan/Egypt and by extension the Arab League thanks to GERD.

Tigrayans were facing genocide and ethnic cleansing under Abiy in partnership with Afewerki. Even moderate Tigrayans have no more sympathy for that Amhara puppet.

The Tigrayan people are under no illusion that Abiy intends to wipe them out. They are in a fight for their lives. That is the very worst kind of enemy to have because they will never surrender or give up.

Ethiopia’s imperialist past has come back to haunt it.

Its simple really. ET army was fighting for a paycheck and TPF was fighting for their lives. Very big difference in motivation. Secondly the genocide, mass rape and looting also motivated every last TPF soldier to fight hard to the death. ET being outsiders also found the terrain new and unfamiliar. TPF were fighting in their known home ground.

Let’s start from the beginning. People forgot that TPF took majority of ET armour assets from the Northern command that was based in Tigray when the conflict with Addis Ababa become imminent. It was ET army main armour as it was there to fight Eritrea across the border. TPF then deployed on its state border poised for ET army. They expected Eritrea to join the fight but didn’t expect much advance from them. The artillery armour would have dealt with both armies. That was until the surprise showed up. UAE armed drones from its bases in Eritrea coast. They found the armour the TPF took as sitting ducks. They were mercilessly destroyed. If you look at all the pics of blown up tanks, trucks and artillery then know that’s UAE drones work. After their success, UAE redeployed them back to the gulf and closed the base in Eritrea. It seems their own success had even alarmed Washington. TPF held ET advance for 2 weeks but the drones destroyed their convectional defense formations. They had to retreat into Sudan before they could be outflanked. The rest within Tigray took refuge in the mountains. Once weeks passed the ET and Eritrea army started chasing shadows at night then during the day. The fight was now an insurgency. However that was not the turning point.

Seeing their state looted, women raped and an conquering force in place was enough motivation for a new battle intensity. Sudan moved its troops along Tigray and Amhara state borders with ET over some decades long border grasslands. They have since taken the lands forcing Amhara state to demand Addis to declare war. They even started trading gunfire. Sudan resupplied TPF with ammunition, food, medicine and fuel. ET failed to outflank the border with Sudan fully. Supplies got through and refugees got to Sudan. The TPF attack was on. Then ET made its mistakes. Couldn’t control its troops or Eritrea. Asked them to leave but they refused. When usa/EU sent observers they had to arrange ET army uniform for Eritrea troops who had refused to leave. Not even a sudden trip to Asmara could get them out. However the final nail was ET treasury brokenness. They had already spent $2 billion, lost it main armour and sacrificed between 1000-5000 troops. With Sudan army division poised at their disputed border then everything was exploding. Failure to pay the soldiers was the reason for mass looting. When TPF launched quick, intense counter attacks, ET soldiers ran to save themselves. First was denials then silence and finally full retreat. Addis tried to fly in new officers to command the front but their C130 plane carrying them got shot down. The remaining officers left Merkele and once that withdrawal reached other ET troops then all ran to save themselves.

The real problem now is the TPF war with Amhara state troops because ET army has fled leaving them only to fight TPF. The fight is mobilization is now at west of Tigray close to where Sudan Army is also poised. If PM Abiy doesn’t help Amhara and they lose that battle then ET will breakup. Do they have the money and armour to fight a broader war? Sudan has usa backing, finances, Egypt supply lines and TPF out for revenge. Meanwhile Oromia now doesn’t feel the need for its tribesmen soldiers stay in ET army any further to die some more to save Amhara state where 1 million of Oromia people got displaced at their common border due to community clashes by machete Amhara militias. ET is more at the brink than most care to know.

Could be a tactical retreat. The day the Ethiopian army will press, those Tigryan militia watajua wajui.

its tactical after international community pressure , pia anataka ajaze dam this month

Why is Eritrea against the TPF yet they are the same people?

There is a big possibility of Ethiopia disintegrating into smaller states just like what happened in Yugoslavia