There is a civil war going on in Ethiopia. Kenya&Somalia will see the largest refugee crisis ever. A country of 109 million people trying to split up.

Even Djibouti is extraditing soldiers back to Ethiopia. These are soldiers who don’t wanna fight their own ethnic group.

The leader of Eritrea whos been in power for the last 30 years is getting involved as well. He is the guy who got Eritrea their independence and he hates a certain ethnic group that’s at war and wants them gone. He already has his soldiers at the border ready to jump in.

Tigrays watulize makende. A small group of 6 million in a country of over 100 million cannot thump its chest at the federal gaament. Wakanyagwe wakae square.

Yet they’ve been ruling Ethiopia since the 19th century.

And someone said Ethipia will overtake Kenya economically. Rwanda is next. wacha Kagame atoke

Why do I smell a Pharaoh’s fart somewhere?

Tigray ndio birrionaires huko. Halafu zile silaha ziko huko. Egypt should arm them wa fight their proxy war.

Effidense? I thought the Emperors, who ruled Ethiopia until 1975, are Amharic?

Si the PM is Oromia , the major tribe

Watakanyagwa wakunje mikia. Ujue Eritrea huwa na beef na Tigrays pia, vita ikianza it will be a massacre of biblical proportions.

Is Eritrea not a Tigray country?

The Tigray are related to the Amhara, and in geopolitics it’s all about using proxies, never overt power moves. Zanzibar has it’s own leadership but Tanzania rules them. Uganda have a Kabaka but M7 calls the shots. Similarly the Tigray make up a small percentage of Ethiopia’s population but they dominate the rest of the country.

On the bright side ‘Ethiopian women’ wakijaa hii mtaa siwes complain

Yes, they’re the majority. During the fight to remove Mengistu, they all fought together as brothers until the Tigray-dominated TPLF won. When Eritrea’s EPLF sought independence, the Tigray controlled federal government launched a bloody campaign to stop it. That’s where the beef began.

shame on you

The Tigray and Amhara have cultural similarities but they also identify as two distinct ethnicities. To say the Tigray have ruled Ethiopia since the 19th century when in fact the emperors were Amhara, is to mislead talkers. Hio angle ya proxies ni yako. As far as I know, Tigray stranglehold over Ethiopia has lasted about four decades. In the past two years PM Abiy has done a thorough job of checking their dominance. Even if Tigrays succeed in armed conflict, they’ll only have their own independent state akin to somaliland, and that will have a domino effect across Ethiopia. Each ethnicity will work towards independence, that’s why the federal government must quash this kiherehere. Lakini renewed Tigray dominance over the entire country will be a long shot.

Lol, okay.

Tigray is a state province at the north most of the country over 2000Kms from our border. We will not get refugees here. They will most likely go to Sudan. However it’s not clear cut who has advantage in this conflict. Tigray hugs ET border with Eritrea. Tigray is also sandwiched by Amhara state. The problem however are two. ET army has its Northern command in Tigray for decades since its war with Eritrea. For this reason 70% of its armour is based there. Also artillery and missiles. Two, ET military was predominantly Tigray community. PM Ably since taking over had started a systematic removal of Tigray’s from top military command. Now this two reasons above is a very dangerous situation as the North command army seem to have moved to support Tigray state over PM Ably. In the weeks and months before this conflict broke out, ET military HQ had tried to replace the top military commanders in the north. They refused to let the new commanders aircraft flight to the region. Its almost certain now that Addis Ababa has lost the north command to Tigray with all its arms and equipments. If that is the case then its going to be a major battle that Addis Ababa will lose lose. They can’t forcefully rule Tigray’s in their home state without overwhelming force they don’t have. To overthrow them will be a major battle with heavy loses and complete destruction of the state. No one has the stomach and will to do that. ET is already shaky in the middle, this conflict could be the start of the end if its not stopped right now.

The only way out is negotiations, force can’t solve this problem. Tigray is sandwich at the north bordering Eritrea that hates them with a passion. Infact Eritrea would gladly support ET in a conflict with Tigray. Tigray leadership are the cause of the ET-Eritrea wars. I’m not sure Sudan will help Tigray using their common border. Its the only outwards route now. They need oil, they need supplies and that’s where Addis can take advantage not war. Lastly ET economy will suffer because of this conflict. ET has huge debts to pay, its forex shortfalls continues for its 7th straight year. Spending money on a war will make the situation at their treasury even worse. They also have a SGR railway project ongoing at Tigray, Mekele SEZ industrial plants all going idle for the foreseeable future. A internal war scares away investors from considering ET, last year they got $1 billion FDI. A lot to be lost with this conflict. Let’s not forget the already 1.2 million IDPs internally in ET over tribal conflicts along state borders fighting and sporagic killing of 1000’s over land. ET has a lot of challenges and troubles to deal with already.

Finally someone who understands the subtleties and complexities of statecraft beyond what can be googled. Cc @captain obvious

While his answer is more detailed, he expounded on what I’d already mentioned, i.e
[ul]
[li]Tigrays and Amharas are distinct ethnicities.[/li][li]Eritrea has beef with Ethiopian Tigrays, or the TPLF to be specific.[/li][li]PM Abiy has been curtailing the power/influence of Tigrays for the last few years.[/li][li]A war with the Tigray region could have a domino effect that could destabilize the whole country, with each region seeking autonomy.[/li][/ul]
Looks like my Googling skills aren’t too shabby.