As long as Kikuyu and Kalenjin are in one basket, nothing can happen. All manner of mass actions or whatever can’t change anything.
Luos can only throw stones and do nothing because they need peace with Kalenjin to access Nairobi and other important economic centers. Kalenjin Kikuyu control all those economic key areas that Luos and Luhyas would need to access.
Kambas and Luhyas are too peaceful and cowards to engage in any conflict and they too need goodwill of Kikuyu and Kalenjin to access major economic areas.
As long as Kalenjin and Kikuyu are at peace together and work together, i can assure you and prophecy that they will rule Kenya for the next 60 years or so till they decide to vote for a member from another tribe. But because of Raila maandamano and mass actions nonesense, i honestly do not see any Luo becoming president anytime soon. They are too much associated with chaos and violence and tribes that they needs its support to be president thats Kikuyu and Kalenjin hate them for such.
The tribe that has bigger chance of producing the next president outside the Kikuyu Kalenjin matrix is the Luhyas but their disunity does not favour them. But I can predict here the next president 2032 will be a Kikuyu.
that is just one way of looking at it sitted somewhere in nairobi or its environs.
kenya is a patched up country.each tribe has an ancestral territory.it also has neighbors with territorial ambitions and each tribe so many grievances.
some militaristic challenges include easy access to guns from the many conflicts in the region and extreme ideology leaning groups buoyed by a variety of religions in the country and leadership.groups like mrc,sabaot,bandits and even oromo liberation have easily had theaters of war within.
you only need to create a cult and administer an oath to create fighting machines free without cowardice.
The way things are going it will reaach a point where the only tribe will be the rich and the poor na hapa watu watataka kujua ati JSKS is a kalenjin mtu wao ama Gachagua is their own tugege but kenye watataka kusikia ni fuel is available, their business is still operational and the cost of living is attainable