The American consumerism is something that China can’t afford to ignore.
Is there a global economics masomo mingi type here, who can predict/speculate when and how the effect of this “tarrifs wars” between US/China are going to hit us hapa sub-sahara.
Or can we just sit back comfortably assuming said US/China tarrifs war will not have any significant effects here ?
1. Global Supply Chain Disruption
- When: Ongoing, with potential spikes during escalation.
- How it hits us: Many African countries import goods (especially electronics, machinery, textiles) from China — and if the US imposes tariffs, China might redirect those excess goods to our markets, driving down local prices or hurting local industries.
- Example: Cheap textiles flooding African markets, undercutting local textile businesses in places like Ethiopia or Nigeria.
2. Commodity Price Volatility
- When: Already happening — global markets react quickly.
- How it hits us: China is a major buyer of African minerals, oil, and agricultural commodities. If its exports to the US are hit, Chinese factories may slow down, lowering demand for African raw materials.
- Effect: Lower export earnings → weaker currencies → inflation (especially for imported goods like fuel or medicine).
3. Opportunity (and Threat) of Trade Diversion
- When: Mid- to long-term.
- How it hits us: With the US looking to “de-risk” from China, some supply chains may move to other developing regions. Africa could benefit — but only if we’re prepared with the right infrastructure, trade policies, and investment climate.
- Threat: If we’re unprepared, those opportunities will bypass us entirely (to Vietnam, Mexico, India, etc.).
4. Foreign Investment Shifts
- When: Already underway in some sectors.
- How it hits us: If US/China relations worsen, investors may adopt a “wait and see” approach globally, including toward African economies. Capital inflows could slow, delaying infrastructure, startups, and development projects.
2 Likes
Hii ni US sponsored bank collapse
1 Like
Hio title bana
Where is the link? A bank won’t go insolvent in 3 months. Something has to have affected it years prior.
The Chinese economy has been in a slow downward spiral the past few years, if you recall the problems in their construction industry. Imbalances caused by Xi’s efforts to exert more political control over their economy.
Trump’s tarrifs may have upset the delicate artificial propping of their fragile economy.
Now Xi has realized his mistake and is bringing back people like Jack Ma to the fold to spur economic growth after casting him aside for becoming a threat.