The Stubborn Reality of Numbers this Election

First, let’s burst a few bubbles:

  1. Had RAO received 30% of the KIUK votes in 2017, he would still have lost.
  2. The departure of MaDVD and Kamelon is impactful
  3. The departure of PAA from Azimio is impactful.

RAO cannot afford to lose his 2017 strongholds. RAO has lost a significant chunk of his 2017 base.

There will be no runoff because the 2017 numbers are still divided between two people. Kamelons numbers take from RAO and not RUTO, so no impact to the outcome.

For a runoff, we need a candidate that will take votes from both candidates to ensure none clocks 50% plus 1 votes.

Mark this reply… WSR will win by 55% plus.

I endorse this message fully. Election day shall validate this well enough

keep gloating musito @Mzichi . mid terms zina come . what are your predictions

Wajackoya will have more votes than Kalonzo. Secondly, Mudavadi and Wetangul are dead and gone

You’ve forgot one important factor: The millennials and generation Z that never voted in 2013 and 2017.

Most of those will now vote for Raila-Karua, and they’re millions accross the country.

Here are the results of the nullified election. Give us the mathematics to support your answer that 30% of votes from Mt Kenya would not have made RAO win. As you raise the votes to 30% for RAO remember to dedu t the same amount from the Uhuruto basket. Let’s back up our words with figures.
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he he i told some of my cousins aged 21 to 26 yesterday how Ruto has opted for Rigathi, they were all asking “who the hell is that ??” , they felt let down by Ruto, today they all know about Martha Karua, and there is genuine enthusiasm to support her…

TO be honest, Ruto and Kenya kwanza guys wanted Raila to go for Kalonzo, that is why they were “supporting Kalonzo” , this would have left them to dominate Mt Kenya easily as they ate into traditional Rao strong holds…

The choice of Karua has confused UDA, now they have to fight for space in Mt Kenya… leaving Western and Coast exposed…

Leo Raila amechanganya wakikuyu, hata die-hards wa UDA Mt Kenya wamenyamaza, they cannot dare start insulting Karua, coz they don’t know to what extent the ground there will shift…

But in my opinion, Kalonzo is a bad strategists and a poor decision maker… he would have rejected Azimio from the word GO or entered with both feet kama Mudavadi… sometimes the most important thing is making the decision , not even the decision itself.

Interesting times ahead…

Mt Kenya?? I meant the 5 Kiuk counties…

I actually wrote 30% of Kiuk votes. We only have 5 Kiuk counties. Now do the Math…

The argument is 30% of Kiuk votes make him President

I will add you one more.

Had RAO got all the votes from Western Kenya, he would still have lost.

Guys don’t seem to comprehend the magnitude of RAOs defeat in 2017

Karua cannot take the Mountain from UDA…

Impossible.

A Karua DP is not a lure enticing enough to make Kiuks jump into Uhurus hands.

The only thing more unsellable than RAO is RAO with Uhuru

Really?

R e a l l y?

There will be people who were not motivated to vote in 2013 and 2017 when RAO was at his peak… but will vote now the man is senile?

R e a l l y?

Mambo mlinifanya na Trump wangu Uncle aki…

Yaya!

Sigwesi hiyo siasa syenu tena

@Abba

Bila hii Roe V Wade dems mngeitana

So the departure of MaDVD, Kalooser and PAA has no impact on RAOs numbers whatsoever?

That’s your position…

I need this kind of faith.

Karua can’t even beat waiguru, that is a waste

Enda kwa ground na ufanye research.
You will be surprised.

The question you need to ask yourself:

Is Ruto more popular in RAO strongholds than Jubilee was in 2017?

Mind you, RAO can’t afford to lose any of those 2017 numbers…

At any given time, the youth make the bulk of voters, both new and overall.

Who has the youth vote?

Kabisa…

Losing Kalooser for Karua was a bad bet.

People left Uhuru, Karua can’t bring them back…

Especially with the Uhuru factor in Azimio.

Azimio’s greatest liability is it’s founder Uhuru…

The paradox!

It would have been stronger especially if they were given stronger position; especially MDVD and WETA. The two are now weaker and will never dare hold a campaign rally in Western without Ruto. kamelon amejimess mbaya sana.
That’s from the ground

Ukambani will follow Kalonzo. I do not understand what Kalonzo’s end game is, but I’m following keenly.
I suspect UDA is grossly underestimating how unpopular their candidate is outside his strongholds.
By the same token, Azimio needs to come to terms with the fact that Raila is not the force he used to be.
Either way, there will be disappointed people in August.
My preference is for UDA to lose.

Hihihihiiii!
This kind of statements always make me laugh! Why can’t it be that it is you who are overestimating the popularity of your candidate? What is it that makes Raila’s supporters to always think that he supreme and invincible? Even given the blunders he always makes over and over again?