Legally, Somalia flatly loses against Somaliland. It’s interesting to not somalia is the only country that rejects AU principle of sanctity of colonial boundaries, Somaliland entered into a union already as an independent state, Somaliland act of parliament that facilitated the partnership had a roadmap which somalia never implemented.
Somalia therefore has to avoid any legal pathway and use politics and diplomacy. Locally , it has to negotiate with Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibout to prevent escalation as a recognition from those states is as good as a done deal. Beyond the region, It seems Djibout AU agenda was to prevent a Somaliland recognition or review of the fact finding mission on Somaliland.
Despite all, Somalia has to give Kenya and Ethiopia something to prevent recognition of Somaliland. Even if that happens, the amount of power and rights Somaliland would have in union would be Soo much that it will be almost an independent state
For Kenya, it’s accepting Jubaland as a security buffer, respecting kenyas maritime boundary, abandoning greater somalia doctrine, abandoning Islamic fundamentalism in her laws and everyday life, taking back her refugees, stopping Alshaabab or any other criminal enterprise with bases in somalia that affects Kenya including in the financial sector
That is the fantasy Somalians spread around. The fact is, at no point in history has somalia ever been a threat to Kenya except their irredentism and terrorism.
They say somalia has oil, that’s just a possibility that hasn’t been proven and oil extracted, they say somalia has a long coastline with ports, but those ports need a market and to access that market they have to talk to Kenya and Ethiopia.
Before colonialism they were just poor pastrolists, during colonialism Italy struggled to a point of importing Italians to work with bantus and grow bananas, later on the UN struggled as their was nothing worthy to bring in income, then at independence between 1960 to 1969 it was just like any other African country with her struggles, finally when said Barre took over from 1969 to 1991 he relied on Soviet aid which he wasted on weapons.
