Mzichi:
RAO hasn’t done well in the past bruh…
Even with te strong showing of NASA 2017, he still needed more than 30% OF kiuk VOTES to win.
He needs to replicate or best his NASA strongholds votes and get more than 30% of KIUK county votes to win…
Will Ukambani and Western and Coast have a strong showing for RAO like in 2017? If they don’t, he needs over 50% of KIUK votes to win.
Remember that Uhuru increased the number of votes he got in Non-Luo Nyanza and Western, between 2014 and 2017. I believe he moved from 15% to 30% in those areas ( I don’t have the numbers in front of me).
At the very least, Raila needs to replicate 2014 numbers in those areas. Then somehow increase numbers in a central. Whether that means flipping voters, reducing voter turnout or a combination of both, any can make an argument for picking Karua.
Ukambani without Kalonzo will be tricky. But will they automatically vote for Ruto if Kalonzo stays neutral? I don’t see it.
Mzichi
May 30, 2022, 4:38am
22
Simiyu22:
Remember that Uhuru increased the number of votes he got in Non-Luo Nyanza and Western, between 2014 and 2017. I believe he moved from 15% to 30% in those areas ( I don’t have the numbers in front of me).
At the very least, Raila needs to replicate 2014 numbers in those areas. Then somehow increase numbers in a central. Whether that means flipping voters, reducing voter turnout or a combination of both, any can make an argument for picking Karua.
Ukambani without Kalonzo will be tricky. But will they automatically vote for Ruto if Kalonzo stays neutral? I don’t see it.
But the problem today is that Ruto has made more inroads into RAO strongholds than Jubilee ever did.
What’s worse is that WSR has the youth vote.
I thought the same. However there’s been apathy towards him in those regions. Of late the vocals are pointing to his onslaught. Unless his voters are laying low.
Mangele:
[ATTACH=full]441536[/ATTACH]
The United Democratic Alliance (UDA) National Vice Chairman Kipruto Arap Kirwa on Sunday, May 29, defected to the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya coalition party. Kirwa was unveiled by Azimio flagbearer Raila Odinga’s running mate Martha Karua. The trio addressed a public rally at the Mayuba Stadium in Sirisia, Bungoma County.
The outgoing UDA official was one of the most experienced politicians in UDA - having served as Cherang’any MP for ten years and as a Cabinet Minister for five years in President Mwai Kibaki’s first term.
https://www.kenyans.co.ke/files/styles/article_inner_mobile/public/images/media/From%20left%20Azimio%20One%20Kenya%20presidential%20flagbearer%20Raila%20Odinga%2C%20and%20Narc%20Kenya%20party%20UDA%20National%20Vice%20Chairman%20Kipruto%20Arap%20Kirwa%20(%20second%20fromleft)%20attending%20an%20Azimo%20rally%20at%20Mayuba%20Stadium%20in%20Sirisia%2C%20Bun.jpg?itok=1o1wJApQ
From left: Azimio One Kenya presidential flagbearer Raila Odinga, n Kipruto Arap Kirwa and Narc Kenya party leader Martha Karua attending a rally at Mayuba Stadium in Sirisia, Bungoma County on Sunday, May 29, 2022.
The veteran politician cited the selection of Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua as Deputy President William Ruto’s running mate as a major factor in his exit. He added that he was demoralized after the decision but only got hope after his former compatriot, Karua, was picked to deputize Raila.
The former Agriculture minister intimated that he reached out to the Narc Kenya party leader on May 28 at night, to inform her of her decision, which he wanted to make public during Azimio’s next rally. In addition, he officially announced his resignation from UDA and declared support for Raila Odinga.
Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta Is A Political Genius.... - News & Politics - Kenya Talk
[ATTACH=full]441540[/ATTACH]
A morass of clichés, yikes buffalo prof
Arnono
May 30, 2022, 5:54pm
25
Ruto won’t even get the numbers that Uhuru managed in 2017 in Western.
Mzichi
May 30, 2022, 7:03pm
27
RAOs loss is the youth vote…
Also, in 2017… think back. Was the Jubilee vote as vocal as UDAs?
Mind you Jubilee scored 30 percent of Western
What “Youth” …???
The ones he could not deliver the 5 million Jobs promise over the last 10 years …???
Shenzi Kabisa …
Mzichi
June 1, 2022, 4:02pm
29
Yes, those youth.
The youth vote is the only demographic that votes significantly independent of tribal affiliation.
The ire against the govt is attributed to Uhuru and RAO.
I am not saying its right or wrong, I am just stating facts.
Even Ngilu and Karua have repeatedly made mention of the fact that UDA has the youth vote…
You will be surprised if you can’t read the signs…
It’s not a question of what promises WSR has kept, it’s a question of whether he has the popular vote among the youth.
