-Western is locked under Madvd and Weta
-Ukambani is locked under Kalonjo and Ngilu
-Coast is locked under Joho and Kingi
It’s obvious that Uhuru is strategizing on how to galvanize these blocs and hand them over to Man Giddy and declare Giddy Tosha.
Question: Where will the enigma find the crowds to cause mayhem and demand nusu mkate after 2022?
Just like Moi gave Uhuru but it failed. Giddy does not have Presidential mileage in Kenya. To win that office in Kenya, you have to have tried once before.
Kibaki has tried before. Uhuru had tried before. Raila has tried before Ruto is in the mix. So is Kalonzo and Madvd.
Giddy has no chance. I will put many others before him. Joho and the likes.
Giddy just doent know how to relate or talk to people. If he can work on that, he may
Galvanizing these blocks will only lead to a rerun. The ideal situations is to get Ruto at No. 3. RAO at No. 1, but below 50%+1, then Uhuru choice at No.2.
The galvanize the rest to support Uhuru choices in the rerun. That leaves RAO and WSR with no options but to work together, with Ruto as DP.
Then we see how well Ruto will sell RAO in the Mt. Kenya region ?
Ruto cannot agree no.2 again after seeing all the followers of the hustler nation. he has supported Raila once, he won’t do it again.
Raila is dead and gone. Gidi is a softie… enter Mudavadi
Exactly,…he can’t fathom the idea of being again No.2 for the next five years, he better loose chasing the top seat
What about if he is placed 3rd in the 2022 presidential election ?
Via Ruto.
- Ruto is constitutionally barred from being number 2 again.
- Uhuru will not let it go to a re-run.
Rao will support anyone who can make him a powerful Prime Minister.
You forget all those are non Jubilee blocks…
They don’t affect RUTOs numbers, just Raila’s
Apart from Rift valley, Ruto anticipate to get votes from areas that were previously ODM strongholds such as coast, western, lower eastern, Kisii-nyanza, parts of south rift and Nairobi. All the jubilee votes in central will also not revert to Ruto. He will have to convince the enlightened okuyus that he deserves their votes.
Mapema
Mdvd will be fronted as president, Uhuru Prime minister, man Gidi and chameleon as deputy pm. Akina joho et al will become ministers. RAO can go his own or join Ruto.
- When you say GEMA will not have a strong showing for RUTO, who in your head will share GEMA with him?
Please don’t say RAO, you can’t be that naive.
How many by elections have been held in GEMA so far?
How many won by RUTO men?
GEMA is locked for RUTO! And KIUKs don’t usually vote for, they vote against. They are voting against UHURU.
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All those areas you mention have NEVER had as vocal influential Pro-RUTO voices ad they do now!
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And BTW, Ruto doesn’t need to win from anything NASA had in 2017, he only needs to retain Jubilee votes… But what is happening? He is making inroads into Pro-RAILA regions to a degree JUBILEE never did.
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Take the coast for example. Has the coast ever had such strong Anti-BABA sentiments?
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UHURU has nothing to offer beyond incumbency, everyone knows that. When we close in on 2022, you’ll see how GEMA aspirants will cluster around RUTO in a bid to secure the electorate’s goodwill
Rao should by now have learnt that being no. 2 is shit… when he was prime minister in the grand coalition he was just another toothless dog ever complaining…And finally he should learn from mistreatment of Ruto by uhunye… Even bbi does not guarantee him a powerful prime minister he will always play second fiddle to the President…
2022 is going to teach leaders unforgettable political lessons.
The truth is that Ruto is currently looking like the lead candidate because no coalition is in place. Time will tell his real support when the battle lines are drawn and alliances sealed.
The fact is that ruto is the leading candidate at the moment, raila is second for he still commands luo nyanza and to an extent western votes. Uhuru does not have a legacy to endorse anyone, in 2022 uhuru will have man giddy alone by his side. That leaves us with two horses for now and a large portion of fragment vote blocks that needs to be won by the two. However, a third horse may arise if kalonzo, madvd and joho make an alliance.