Sunday Documentary: Betting On Zero

**If you are allergic to reading, scroll straight to the video. Thank you.

Watched it in the morning, fantastic stuff.

This documentary focuses on billionaire investor Bill Ackman’s very public brawl with Herbalife International, an American company known for selling health care products like nutrition supplements. Bill Ackman calls it the longest running and most successful pyramid scheme in the world. He believes so much that Herbalife is a pyramid scheme, that in 2012 he took a one billion dollar short on Herbalife stock.

So, what the fuck is a short?

In simple terms, one borrows stock (at 100 shs valuation for example), with a promise to return it to the owner at a certain date. One then sells that stock, in the hope that it will drop in value. If everything goes according to plan and the stock does drop in value (to, say, 60 bob), one then buys back the stock he sold and returns it to the owner, therefore making a profit (40 bob per share, in this case). Maybe stock traders in the village can give us a more detailed explanation, but as you might have guessed, for a short to work, one needs to be really sure the stock will go down.

So why does Bill Ackman believe Herbalife stock is worthless?

Because he believes Herbalife is a pyramid scheme masquerading as a multi-level marketing organization.

What makes him think Herbalife is a pyramid scheme?

Herbalife operates suspiciously like a pyramid scheme. They don’t depend on a dedicated sales team to move their product. Rather, they recruit distributors. These distributors are then actively encouraged to recruit 6 people (called the downline). Each person in your downline also recruits 6 people, ad infinitum. The more people you recruit, the more commissions you earn from your downline. Herbalife advertisements are similar to those “my-grandpa-makes-5000-dollars-a-day-while-seated-at-home-nursing-his-arthritis” ads you come across on the internet. The first thing they show you is just how well off their distributors are doing. Some are pictured holding thousands of dollars of cash, next to million dollar sports cars, next to mansions, on expensive vacations etc. And you’re promised that good life too, if you work hard enough and manage to move products worth x thousand dollars, recruit x number of distributors, for x number of months. GNLD anyone?

The result is that these distributors end up buying more stuff than they can sell, in the hope that they will sell enough to start earning thousands of dollars in commission. By the time most realize what’s happening, they’ve lost their life savings. Bill Ackman initially made his short so he could profit from Herbalife’s collapse. He later described his mission to destroy Herbalife as a holy war, a crusade against a company that has wrecked thousands of lives. He now claims he will donate 100% of any profit he makes from the short to charity. He seems to be alone in his crusade. Wall street and regulators have been slow to investigate claims against Herbalife. The company has also spent millions of dollars on lawyers, sleek media campaigns
http://crowdink.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/ronaldo_nutrition.jpg
and lobbyists. Even former US Secretary of state Madeleine Albright has publicly praised Herbalife. The company’s seminars also resemble church retreats, with a few distributors being called up on stage to narrate to the rest how their lives have changed for the better since joining Herbalife. To make matters worse for Ackman, activist investor Carl Icahn, who absolutely hates Bill, bought a stake in Herbalife soon after Ackman announced his short, with the intention of driving up the stock price and, therefore, making Ackman lose his billion dollar bet.

So, who will come out on top?

Like I said, fantastic stuff!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-jrALajXrI

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Why would anyone go to such lengths just to prove a point?

“The Big Short” movie comes to mind…

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I think there’s a bigger picture as far as Bill Ackman is concerned. Right now he’s very alone in his mission against Herbalife. If he turns out to be right, his profile rises much higher, and he gains lots of new clients eager to invest their money with his firm, Pershing Square Capital. So even if he gives away the profits earned from this bet, he still gains in the long term. At least that’s what I think.

There are big companies in the states that have the same business model. AMWAY comes to mind. I’ve seen a few docs and articles and surprisingly enough, its endorsed by big players.

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For me any company that forces it’s clients to recruits sales personnel to move it’s products is a pyramid scheme. If you cant simply stock their products for normal sale at a commission like any other product then something is terribly wrong.

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There seems to be a very thin line between pyramid schemes (illegal) and multi-level-marketing companies (legal). Herbalife’s business model just doesn’t look sustainable, it’s almost a miracle that they’ve been able to survive 30 years. In the video, (former) Herbalife CEO tells a group of people, that for the company to keep existing, it must keep recruiting. Because once you’re hoodwinked into joining, you automatically have to buy some products, then hoodwink others into joining, in the hope that you’ll earn commission. So recruitment is their lifeline. And the company seems to grow by expanding to new regions or countries and setting up the same recruitment driven structure. At some point, you have so many recruits that they start attempting to sell to one another. The ones who joined in the 80s and early 90s are millionaires, but if you’re just joining then you’ll have it very very rough.

This company’s products come second in importance. This recruitment is the most important aspect of its business model. For example, new recruits are encouraged to set up these wellness/fitness clubs, charge a certain amount, say 5 dollars, for people to taste the shakes and supplements and what not. They’re not allowed to overtly display the Herbalife logo or state that this is a Herbalife club. And they don’t seem to care about selling these products in those clubs. The clubs actually act as recruitment centers. Once inside, you’re given the stuff to taste while being encouraged to join. Even the ones who’re struggling to cover rent will still hoodwink you into joining, because they want to earn commission from you.
Most of these people are tricked into joining and buying products worth thousands of dollars. Some had rooms filled with cartons from Herbalife, with no one to sell to. Plus they also expire. They keep buying in the hope that one day they’ll recruit enough people to earn themselves thousands of dollars in commissions. But the only time most snap out of it is when they exhaust all their savings and can’t afford to buy more.

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I know the guy (Ackman). He is an activist investor. What he does is he values a company, calculates that it can perform otherwise if certain things are done differently and then raids the board and changes the company. In the last 3 years, he has been absolutely hammered. He made huge miscalculations in Herbalife and Valeant stocks. Valeant down by 90%.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6MwGeOm8iI

John Oliver also did a piece on them.

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I make a net profit 80k a month from GNLD and Forever Living.

An in-law from Kiambu tried to recruit me into that GNLD thing when I was in college. She’s never seen a better waltzer her whole life. Used to waltz out of her presence like a cat that has seen a dog.

But really, this thing is all about someone preying on our habit of wanting quick money (greed). I don’t know the more academic angle to it.

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kuna ingine hapo westie inaitwa- tiens, same story

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That’s a very thorough analysis.

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Multi level marketing. Simply a pyramid scheme with something small to offer back ndio isikue illegal. But still watu wakamuliwe for the gain of a few up the levels

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