I had thought of this possibility, I’m glad someone else was thinking so
https://x.com/Kenyans/status/1986336739842240754
That will allow Ruto balance support as rift valley is generally westside and the coast east side.
It will also enable him attract the Muslim vote, which can only be turned into a significant block if he combines North Eastern counties and Coastal counties.
It will also enable him utilize ODM networks and try to borrow from the ODM of 2007.
The downsides are:
People supported ODM because of Raila Odinga and not ODM the party. That is evidenced by the fact that different areas could defy ODM and chose leaders as they want but vote Raila as the president.
As things seem, Nassir and others quickly installed Oburu Odinga, and it looks like their camp has people like Wanga. Oburu maybe holding the party till elections, whatever plans Joho has in taking over ODM, he has very few options.
First the coast is majority Mijikenda who seem to be not well represented politically in terms of their grievances. The Swahili are actually bantus and will easily be swayed by tribal nature of Kenyan politics. That then draws the lines leaving ‘arabs’ on the other hand. A dangerous scenario that awakens historical subjugation of the real owners of the coast, portraying Arabs as invaders.
Second, Mombasa county is majorly christian with Muslims forming only about 40% of the population, Lamu is 50/50% and only kwale has a majority Muslim at 80% which gets diluted by our tribal nature of politics forcing them to play tribe before religion. Tana river is likely to play ball and support him as it’s majority Muslim and poor.This gives other players huge fighting chances to battle it out.
Besides all that Muslim card,Muslims form only 9 to 10% of the Kenyan population.The number could be lesser given some people are not ‘serious muslims’ especially those not Somali or Arab e.g luhyas in Mumias and some Luos, kikuyus periodically oscillate between identifying as Muslim and christian depending on prevailing desires and circumstances
As for NE counties, they are deeply behind Ruto and will likely vote him as he wants. However their numbers are very low and no data supports or indicates a significant population there. Even the 2009 and 2019 population figures are fake and thrive on confusion. Maybe the court rulling allowing a recount is part of the confusion.
In Western ODM will be vanquished especially if groups like Gladys Wanga manage to control the party. To vie on ODM in western will be a death sentence. Equally, to vie on UDA will require many factors to work in favor as the narrative as evidenced in Malava by election is simply 'are we not men enough to have our own,that neighbors can arrange us? ’
As for Busia ODM grip will greatly reduce and and other parties, including UDA will get something.
As for Nairobi, wariyas will seize more seats than ever if kikuyus, luhyas, Luos and kambas continue being confused.
All in all, in a free, fair credible and verifiable election… William Ruto will lose. Unfortunately never has there been such an election since 2010 in Kenya and as things stand he will win.
