RUTO has Mt KENYA Locked, Ignore TODAY'S NATION: My ANALYSIS

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[SIZE=5]The idea that KIAMBAA was a scary outcome for RUTO’s Presidential BID is all NONSENSE!!!

Here’s what people fail, or refuse to understand. Nuggets of truth I’ll share are worth more than what you paid for the SATURDAY NATION’S false view that plays loose with obvious facts. Lucky for y’all I always get philanthropic with my wisdom when I down MONSTER ENERGY DRINKS)

So the argument that KIAMBAA shows RUTO only has 50% of the Mountain locked seems credible at face value.

Like most things, the truth needs a little digging.

I already stated the obvious yesterday, and the NATION acknowledged it as fact: RUTOs win cemented his influence in the Mountain. I won’t repeat this, and no one with two brain cells to rub together still thinks that ‘Uhuru is still the KIUK kingpin’

The man lost in HIS backyard!!

Now to the quick and loose analysis of what these results mean:

This idea that KIAMBAA suggested that the votes will be divided in Mt KENYA is IGNORANT of facts.

***** The Trends, and What they [COLOR=rgb(184, 49, 47)]GUARANTEE in 2022 *****

First things first… and you can take this to the bank: The ground is UDA!!!

And contrary to popular belief, KIAMBAA was an especially strong message to ASPIRANTS in Mt KENYA.

How? Glad you asked.

People are with UHURU because he is President and he can offer some goodies or use state machinery to harass. As we near the elections, his sting weakens. That’s why members of JUBILEE are so emboldened to defy him today…

Come May, the man from GATUNDU will be alone… this is why.

In KIAMBAA, KARIRI was unbelievably popular. He was the obvious replacement to KOINANGE. WANJIKU was a nobody. No one would have dared imagine that WANJIKU would be able to match, let alone beat KARIRI.

Had KARIRI remained in UDA… (he was UDA FYI), he would have won with like 95% of the vote.

Why is this important?

This is why I say KIAMBAA has CEMENTED RUTO’s control of Mt KENYA votes. It all boils down to [COLOR=rgb(184, 49, 47)]a thing called self-interest.

***** How Self-Interest Guarantees RUTO the Mountain *****

Put yourself in the shoes of ASPIRING candidates in CENTRAL.

It has been demonstrated REPEATEDLY that no matter how popular you are, the UDA wave can knock you out.

I repeat: PER the EVIDENCE: No matter how popular you are, you can’t guarantee yourself a win unless you are with UDA.

Everybody knows that had KARIRI vied with UDA he would be MP as we speak with an UNIMAGINABLE majority.[COLOR=rgb(184, 49, 47)] I assure you future ASPIRANTS are keen not to repeat KARIRI’S blunder. This means that popular candidates will seek UDA tickets because that guarantees them a win in CENTRAL. UHURU’s support has been proven insufficient at best, detrimental at worst.

So by virtue of the KARIRI BLUNDER aspirants (especially the popular ones) will move to UDA.

And this is common sense. Campaigns are expensive affairs. You want to maximize your chances of winning. If you are POPULAR the UDA wave guarantees a win. Riding against the UDA wave may see you lose to a less popular candidate… this is borne of evidence from the many by-elections across GEMA counties. I’m not saying that you can’t win against the UDA wave if you are significantly more popular (like in MAGUGU), but the chances are very low, and it’s a risky bet.

I’ll represent it mathematically:

Your POPULARITY + UDA WAVE = SURE BET!! SURE WIN!!
Your POPULARITY - UDA WAVE = SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER CHANCES OF SUCCESS

As a popular political aspirant, what would your first choice be? To tempt fate by riding against the UDA wave, or riding the UDA wave to a guaranteed win?

Like I said, self-interest will re-shape the MOUNTAIN further in RUTO’s favor

Imagine the election scene in CENTRAL come 2022, ALMOST ALL popular aspirants will be on the UDA ticket. This translates to RUTO votes, because his candidates will be ALL the POPULAR GUYZ.

So as you wait to see a divided Mt KENYA. Take into account where self-interest and self-preservation will blow popular candidates.

Just you wait, you haven’t seen anything yet. The MIGRATION into RUTO’s camp coming your way will shock you!!
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[SIZE=5]GUYZ who were adamant that WSR can’t get KIUK votes will still not follow this obvious flow of logical deductions, but to each his own[/SIZE]

You know what matters?

Ruto needs at least 80% of the mountain.The ground was being prepared for a 50-50 result by all means possible.

Uhuru is the best,he is going nowhere.

So who will take 50% of CENTRAL votes from RUTO?

And going by election trends, RAO has been losing his strongholds to his opponents since 2007.

That’s how JUBILEE won in 2013

By 2017, RAO had lost 8 counties he had won in 2013

As we speak, RUTO is making serious inroads into KAMBA and COAST

Utashangaa akipata GEMA votes na ashinde na over 60% of votes cast

Tell us Mr analyst, whose vote would have been eaten into had there been a 3rd strong candidate, Kariri or Wanjiku?

UDA will at most get 40 % of Mount Kenya votes and seats .

KARIRIs would have been eaten…

KARIRIS votes were popularity votes, so they were subject to popularity. If another popular candidate was there, KARIRI would share the popularity votes with him/her

WANJIKUs votes were UDA votes, so unaffected by popularity

Basically, people who voted for WANJIKU were predominantly party-minded. People who wanted UDA and nothing but UDA and wanted UDA more than they liked KARIRI

So think of it like this:

There are two types of votes, 1. Candidate votes 2. Party votes

KARIRI had the candidate votes predominantly. Had another popular candidate arose, they would be wrestling for KARiRIs votes because the rest are PARTY votes

You talk too much.
Let’s leave central alone with the 50% and come to Nairobi county which was according to 2017 elections 50% jubilee and 50% nasa.
If we use the same analogy, it means that UDA will get 25% of Nairobi votes while a coalition candidate will 50-75%.
That will make a big difference.

You are aware that the 50% in NAIROBI for JUBILEE ni KIUKs?

Kwanza afadhali ushago, KIUKs NAI ndio hawataki UHURU kabisa!!!

KARIRIs votes were by virtue of HIS own popularity, they were not JUBILEE votes.

And it’s true NASA had about 50% of NAI…

That was with KAMBA and LUHYA votes in NAI helping. The KAMBA vote inagawia WSR kura ushangae hii NAIROBI.

Ati UDA 25% of NAIROBI votes? Kaka… endelea.

Kama kuna mahali NASA imepoteza KURA ni NAIROBI.

To suggest that KARIRIs votes were JUBILEE votes is being ignorant to the facts. JUBILEE lost KIAMBAA with the MOST popular candidate on their side. That’s how strong the UDA wave is…

Let me show you the strength of NASA + JUBILEE

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Look at NAIROBI with JUBILEE and NASA people UNANIMOUSLY selling it…

38% for, 46% against.

NASA and JUBILEE don’t have any influence… they can’t motivate the masses. And BTW, NEastern iko NDANI kwa RUTO mbaya!!!

CENTRAL ilikataa BBI inauzwa kuwa favor. That’s how disliked JUBILEE is!!

Mujamaa you cannot base your arguement on the above data. You know as well as we all do that in Kenya people vote depending on the mood kwa ground aka euphoria and not policy. If you check at the size of the population and the composition used to come up with that analysis utashangaa. Wananichi wa Kenya hawana msimamo, so the above does not mean for anything.

The Pro-RUTO mood has been building for a while, we can’t pretend that away!!!

When a wave begins in Kenya, people see it to it’s end… on the political scene at least.

And you do know how sampling works, right?

You don’t need half the population to determine what people are thinking

Most of Pro-Ruto support in Mt Kenya is to punish Uhuru not really about Ruto himself. Jubilee just has to target that Uhuru hate by attacking Ruto’s abysmall achievement record. Then give Raila a Kikuyu running mate. That will dent his votes massively.

I cant think of a major progressive initiative/project/event/change in Kenya attributed to Ruto… but central people will still troop to punish their own.

I like your analysis, tupatie ods za weekend games tuwekelee pale odibets

First, that will be a hard sell.

RUTO has practically visited every village in GEMA. People have been seeing him, looks like he planned this steal long ago.

It’s impossible to sell RAO in CENTRAL. No matter what you do, you can’t convince the GEMA vote to make RAO president. That is an experiment done, repeated, and it fails each time.

And attacking RUTO is exactly what pushes the GEMA masses into his hands… not something anyone should do and expect different results.

And on RUTOs record, the narrative is that he couldn’t work for the people since RAO came and confused UHURU, removing RUTO from the corridors of power.

False as the narrative may be, it has taken root. JUBILEE cannot arise from its ashes. It’s dead, and RUTO is feasting on the corpse

I totally agree with this point.

To show you that vumbistans are not loyal, if today Uhunye says uncle Machos tosha the baggas pretending to hate him will all be singing his praises ama RaiaMkuu aseme Ruto tosha, suddenly he will become the much awaited messiah. So ni upuus ndo tumejaza kwa kichwa.

I have never trusted hizo sampling za Kenya, most huwa ni according to keyboard warriors views and not reality on the ground. Example if today you went to the Rift valley or Murang’a to find out ODM’s popularity, what results do you expect or go to Kisumu and check UDA’s popularity. Alaf unaenda kuuliza walalahoi maswali ka hizi, you can never get the accurate picture. Unacatch the drift ama bado niendelee?

The guy has some truth ,the only way to beat chief hustler is by a strong coalition between all those other parties and even Uhuru as a patron to ensure rigging goes on successfully with state machinery ,am sure ruto is banking on each candidate to stand on their own .
Take my words just like kiambaa ,if rails ,modavadi, weta ,our melon, a mount Kenya candidate even mauki mwalim ndida stands each alone, by 1 pm ruto presidency will be a reality, honestly not even raila is as strong as chief thief assuming every man stands solo.

The 50% is for Uhuru,he will use it to ensure ‘he is going nowhere’,he will decide where he wants it be

UHURU has 50 percent of CENTRAL?

Ngoja tu