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[SIZE=5]The idea that KIAMBAA was a scary outcome for RUTO’s Presidential BID is all NONSENSE!!!
Here’s what people fail, or refuse to understand. Nuggets of truth I’ll share are worth more than what you paid for the SATURDAY NATION’S false view that plays loose with obvious facts. Lucky for y’all I always get philanthropic with my wisdom when I down MONSTER ENERGY DRINKS)
So the argument that KIAMBAA shows RUTO only has 50% of the Mountain locked seems credible at face value.
Like most things, the truth needs a little digging.
I already stated the obvious yesterday, and the NATION acknowledged it as fact: RUTOs win cemented his influence in the Mountain. I won’t repeat this, and no one with two brain cells to rub together still thinks that ‘Uhuru is still the KIUK kingpin’
The man lost in HIS backyard!!
Now to the quick and loose analysis of what these results mean:
This idea that KIAMBAA suggested that the votes will be divided in Mt KENYA is IGNORANT of facts.
***** The Trends, and What they [COLOR=rgb(184, 49, 47)]GUARANTEE in 2022 *****
First things first… and you can take this to the bank: The ground is UDA!!!
And contrary to popular belief, KIAMBAA was an especially strong message to ASPIRANTS in Mt KENYA.
How? Glad you asked.
People are with UHURU because he is President and he can offer some goodies or use state machinery to harass. As we near the elections, his sting weakens. That’s why members of JUBILEE are so emboldened to defy him today…
Come May, the man from GATUNDU will be alone… this is why.
In KIAMBAA, KARIRI was unbelievably popular. He was the obvious replacement to KOINANGE. WANJIKU was a nobody. No one would have dared imagine that WANJIKU would be able to match, let alone beat KARIRI.
Had KARIRI remained in UDA… (he was UDA FYI), he would have won with like 95% of the vote.
Why is this important?
This is why I say KIAMBAA has CEMENTED RUTO’s control of Mt KENYA votes. It all boils down to [COLOR=rgb(184, 49, 47)]a thing called self-interest.
***** How Self-Interest Guarantees RUTO the Mountain *****
Put yourself in the shoes of ASPIRING candidates in CENTRAL.
It has been demonstrated REPEATEDLY that no matter how popular you are, the UDA wave can knock you out.
I repeat: PER the EVIDENCE: No matter how popular you are, you can’t guarantee yourself a win unless you are with UDA.
Everybody knows that had KARIRI vied with UDA he would be MP as we speak with an UNIMAGINABLE majority.[COLOR=rgb(184, 49, 47)] I assure you future ASPIRANTS are keen not to repeat KARIRI’S blunder. This means that popular candidates will seek UDA tickets because that guarantees them a win in CENTRAL. UHURU’s support has been proven insufficient at best, detrimental at worst.
So by virtue of the KARIRI BLUNDER aspirants (especially the popular ones) will move to UDA.
And this is common sense. Campaigns are expensive affairs. You want to maximize your chances of winning. If you are POPULAR the UDA wave guarantees a win. Riding against the UDA wave may see you lose to a less popular candidate… this is borne of evidence from the many by-elections across GEMA counties. I’m not saying that you can’t win against the UDA wave if you are significantly more popular (like in MAGUGU), but the chances are very low, and it’s a risky bet.
I’ll represent it mathematically:
Your POPULARITY + UDA WAVE = SURE BET!! SURE WIN!!
Your POPULARITY - UDA WAVE = SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER CHANCES OF SUCCESS
As a popular political aspirant, what would your first choice be? To tempt fate by riding against the UDA wave, or riding the UDA wave to a guaranteed win?
Like I said, self-interest will re-shape the MOUNTAIN further in RUTO’s favor
Imagine the election scene in CENTRAL come 2022, ALMOST ALL popular aspirants will be on the UDA ticket. This translates to RUTO votes, because his candidates will be ALL the POPULAR GUYZ.
So as you wait to see a divided Mt KENYA. Take into account where self-interest and self-preservation will blow popular candidates.
Just you wait, you haven’t seen anything yet. The MIGRATION into RUTO’s camp coming your way will shock you!!
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[SIZE=5]GUYZ who were adamant that WSR can’t get KIUK votes will still not follow this obvious flow of logical deductions, but to each his own[/SIZE]