Questions on viability of SGR refuse to go away after China cuts funding

The question of whether the Nairobi-Naivasha-Kisumu Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) section is viable or not came to the fore when the China Exim Bank cut its funding for the Naivasha route by Sh32 billion.
Supplementary budget documents tabled in Parliament in April also showed allocations to the SGR project dropped by Sh42 billion, including the Sh32 billion held back by the bank.
The 120-kilometre Nairobi-Naivasha line that cuts through the Nairobi National Park, traversing several town centres and agricultural areas, will cost Sh150 billion.
The concerns on the fate of the line were heightened when President Uhuru Kenyatta failed to secure funds as had been highly expected during his China visit two weeks ago. Kenya and the China Communications Construction Company had already reached a deal for construction of the Naivasha-Kisumu stretch.
The remaining bits of the agreement were to be finalised during the President’s Beijing visit. However, this did not happen, raising eyebrows of what is in store for the multibillion project.
Transport Cabinet Secretary James Macharia had also said the signing of the funding would be done in Beijing during the China-Africa Forum (Focac).

“All documents are ready. However, when we engaged the Chinese government, it was agreed that they do support it, but we need to complete the feasibility study, not just for Naivasha to Kisumu but also all the way from Mombasa to Kisumu so that we can establish its commercial viability,” CS Macharia told a press briefing in Beijing.
Analysts are now questioning why the issue of viability is being raised when talks on funding had been concluded and all that remained was just putting pen to paper.

https://www.nation.co.ke/business/Questions-on-viability-of-SGR-refuse-to-go-away/996-4761966-sgtqe5z/index.html

He he Chinese wanaturumia yet our own kins have no mercy on debt the lay it out to our children

when SGR hit RV proper hapo ndio an acre of land will be costing ksh 100million.

We are a special breed for sure. All these studies should have been done before committing ourselves to this debt.
Talk of leaving legacies at whatever cost.

One of the reasons I dislike CS Macharia with regards to the SGR, is this irritating notion that he keeps spouting that the SGR terminates at Kisumu rather than Malaba
Clearly, when the plan was formulated, it was not aimed at having viable sections, it was aimed at having THE ENTIRE project viable.There is no way the Naivasha Kisumu line is viable whatsoever, otherwise, they would have gone with the proposed line B which was to pass through Nakuru and Eldoret which was dismissed due to terrain. The idea should be treating Malaba-Kisumu and Kisumu-Naivasha as one section the same way Nairobi-Mombasa was.
Otherwise, then shift the line to Nakuru and Eldoret once the Naivasha line is complete then. However, most are comfortable with the Niavasha-Narok-Nyamira line as it will open a new corridor and will end up in Malaba anyway.
The way CS Macharia talks is basically self sabotage.Thank God the Chinese repeated to the Ugandans that they will not fund a Uganda-Tanzania line and M7 will have to stick to a Kenya-Uganda line.
Problem is our mouthy CS and Ugandan saboteurs claiming that their SGR will be a White Elephant

Nobody cares about legacies…they only care how their pockets will be lined …380B for 251km…It is more expensive than the Nrb -Msa stretch (which already inflated anyway)

The terrain from Naivasha to Kisumu is more extreme. The railway line will reach even Nyamira.

It would have made more sense if they told us that the reason for the Naivasha line is cause they can electrify it since there’s plenty of cheap geothermal power nearby. Thereby justifying this line even further to Nakuru.

That’s the justification of 1.52Million shillings per meter of railway?

The railway will climb the Rift Valley from the floor and reach altitudes of over 3,000 metres and go through terrain around the Mau Complex then go down the Nandi Escarpment, so Yeah.
Have you forgotten also that billions of those will entail BUYING LAND from their owners at a much higher rate than the Nairobi Mombasa stretch which passed through a National park and public Government land 30 % of the distance??Such free land is non existent past Naivasha.
How many farmers do you think they will compensate in Kisii and Nyamira Counties alone??How many schools wil be demolished and rebuilt and burial sites moved given we did so in areas like Western Kwale and Kilifi as well as Makuani which have low population densities??Do you ever factor in such costs??

Nairobi to kisumu will be loss making.
Uganda pulled back from the project it’s cargo will ship through Tanzania.
The government has killed industries from nakuru to western, eveready, rivatex, kikomi, mumias, miwani, muhoroni, miwani, flouspar, pyrethrum

Niavasha-Narok-Nyamira line is unlikely to be viable, the Narok Mai Mahiu region has a visible and active fault line. Why not consider passing through a more diverse section opening up a wider catchment area.

Nakuru ->Kericho ->kakamega OR
To Nakuru → the line turns upward towards → Solai-> Kabarnet → Kitale ->Endebess. A 3rd phase can cater of the kericho-> Kakamega ->Kitale, with Kitale as the Western region Rail Hub/interchange.

Why is Nyamira to Kisumu not viable?

This is the easiest path towards Uganda. And it will totally transform and awaken these sleeping counties. There’s massive agro/mineral potential in this region.

The hinterland of Nyamira /Kisumu railway line is Tanzania, the TZ line is not too far away. A branch is expected to reach Mwanza; a future phase shows the line extending to Moshi and Arusha.
A Kenyan line would be best constructed further up, opening the Kenyan hinterland, it would attract traffic from Northern Ug, Southern Sudan and Eastern Ethiopia, making it economically viable. A light rail can act as a feeder connecting Nyamira /Kisumu section to the main line.

That is what LAPSSET rail is planned for.

The route to Kisumu makes perfect sense. TZ has been telling us they’ll take there SGR to Mwanza port which makes no sense since how would they move all those containers to Uganda? When Port Bell is a massive pile of broken down shait? Plus it opens up direct competition with our southern neighbors…

All of them have active fault lines.In fact, the area north of Nakuru is worse than the Mai Mahiu area as it is not one fault line but several ones.
Jamani, Karbarnet???Unless we are borrowing 1 trillion.Dude!!Have you seen the terrain there???Would the train even manage to climb the Rift there???
A direct line from Nakuru to Kericho would
1.Cost just like Karbarnet as the train would climb to over 3,000 metres.
2.Pass through the Mau forest.Yeah.We do not want to touch that.
The Naivasha-Narok-Nyamira line has the best terrain.The climb up the Rift after Naivasha is gentle while much of the railway passes through flat land until you go past Narok.
The idea was to open a new economic corridor as well.This will be very possible in places like Nyamira.

Again, that is nonsense.
Uganda was told No Kenya SGR, no funding for their own railway.
If Uganda opts to go with TZ, then they are using their own money as the West said that a Uganda SGR would be a White Elephant while the Chinese said they should link up with ours or no funding.
And last I checked, apart from Rivatex and Kicomi, the others either died due to inefficiency in the case of the sugar companies or are private ventures that failed to change with the times like Eveready and Flourspar Kenya.

Sasa, half of the project is done, if feasi ility study for the remaining half gives a void result reli itasimamia Mlolongo or we void the entire loan also?

That is the plan.The line will still terminate at Malaba and in Uganda, there will be a line branching to Northern Uganda and South Sudan.