Presidential Votes MOAS...Uhuru is not yet home and dry!!

[nairobguy]

@nairobguy

COUNTY || VOTERS ||Raila %|| Uhuru %
MURANG’A|| 587,126 || 5% || 95%
MOMBASA ||580,223 || 80% || 20%
BUNGOMA ||559,850 || 80% || 20%
KISII ||546,580 || 65% || 35%
KISUMU ||539,210 || 95% || 5%
KILIFI ||508,068 ||80% || 20%

The top 12 counties in terms of registered votes are the only ones with figures above 1/2 a million (500,000) voters. They will play a key role in determining who wins. If the parties have a Get Out the Vote strategy, they are well advised to concentrate it in these 12 counties.

COUNTY || VOTERS ||Raila %|| Uhuru %
HOMA BAY|| 476,875|| 95% || 5%
KITUI ||474,512 || 90% || 10%
SIAYA ||457,953 || 95% || 5%
NYERI ||456,949 || 5% || 95%
UASIN GISHU||450055 ||20% || 80%
MAKUENI ||423,310 ||90% || 10%

The total Ukambani Vote adds up to 1,518,076. Even with Baba getting 90% of these he is not assured of victory. To make matters worse @TIFA_Research has just released a poll showing Uhuru will bag 40% in Machakos and Alfred Mutua will win the governor race. Kalonzo better pray that this scenario is not replicated in the two other Ukambani counties of Kitui and Makueni.

[kah_tony]

I bet you’ve used a lot of time to do this.

The data you used is for one election. IMO if you used 2007 as well that will help the numbers since you’ll see patterns and also you’ll see where there are discrepancies in data xteristics like turn out, voter apathy etc.

In the 2007 you can just put the flower girls together with Joshuas numbers and count Kibaki as Uhunye.

[Hunter_Xp]

County Votes Nasa Jubilee Turnout Nasa Votes Jubilee Votes
Kiambu 1,173,593 0 1 0.95 0 1114913.35
Nakuru 948,668 0.25 0.75 0.9 213450.3 640350.9
Meru 712,378 0.25 0.7 0.95 169189.775 473731.37
Murang’a 590,775 0 1 0.95 0 561236.25
Nyeri 460,806 0 1 0.95 0 437765.7
UasinGishu 451,485 0.25 0.75 0.9 101584.125 304752.375
Kericho 379,815 0.1 0.9 0.92 34942.98 314486.82
Kirinyaga 351,162 0 1 0.95 0 333603.9
Nandi 349,340 0.1 0.9 0.92 32139.28 289253.52
Nyandaua 336,322 0 1 0.95 0 319505.9
Bomet 325,606 0.3 0.7 0.92 89867.256 209690.264
Embu 315,668 0.1 0.9 0.92 29041.456 261373.104
Laikipia 239,497 0.4 0.6 0.85 81428.98 122143.47
Baringo 227,918 0.2 0.8 0.85 38746.06 154984.24
Tharaka Nithi 216,522 0.1 0.9 0.95 20569.59 185126.31
West Pokot 178,989 0.4 0.6 0.7 50116.92 75175.38
E Marakwet 178,975 0.3 0.7 0.8 42954 100226
Kakamega 746,877 0.9 0.1 0.9 604970.37 67218.93
Machakos 627,168 0.7 0.3 0.9 395115.84 169335.36
Mombasa 596,485 0.7 0.3 0.85 354908.575 152103.675
Bungoma 559,897 0.8 0.2 0.85 380729.96 95182.49
Kisumu 548,868 1 0 0.95 521424.6 0
Kilifi 510,484 0.8 0.2 0.8 326709.76 81677.44
Kitui 477,655 0.8 0.2 0.85 324805.4 81201.35
Kisii 544,753 0.8 0.2 0.85 370432.04 92608.01
Nyamira 279,685 0.7 0.3 0.85 166412.575 71319.675
HomaBay 476,150 1 0 0.95 452342.5 0
Siaya 447,745 1 0 0.95 425357.75 0
Makueni 421,180 0.8 0.2 0.85 286402.4 71600.6
Migori 388,967 1 0 0.9 350070.3 0
Busia 347,911 0.8 0.2 0.85 236579.48 59144.87
TNzoia 339,832 0.7 0.3 0.85 202200.04 86657.16
Kwale 282,436 0.8 0.2 0.7 158164.16 39541.04
Vihiga 267,481 0.9 0.1 0.85 204622.965 22735.885
Taita Taveta 155,904 0.7 0.3 0.7 76392.96 32739.84
Tana River 118,189 0.7 0.3 0.7 57912.61 24819.69
Lamu 70,224 0.6 0.4 0.7 29494.08 19662.72
Nairobi 2,304,386 0.5 0.5 0.85 979364.05 979364.05
Kajiado 409,266 0.8 0.2 0.85 278300.88 69575.22
Narok 347,427 0.7 0.3 0.85 206719.065 88593.885
Turkana 188,617 0.7 0.3 0.75 99023.925 42438.825
Mandera 168,478 0.4 0.6 0.75 50543.4 75815.1
Garissa 132,486 0.4 0.6 0.75 39745.8 59618.7
Wajir 155,916 0.6 0.4 0.75 70162.2 46774.8
Marsabit 143,541 0.5 0.5 0.75 53827.875 53827.875
Samburu 79,477 0.4 0.6 0.75 23843.1 35764.65
Isiolo 72,548 0.4 0.6 0.75 21764.4 32646.6
8652373.782 8550287.293

This is my projection

[Hunter_Xp]

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