Presidential Votes MOAS...Uhuru is not yet home and dry!!

Just did a quick projection of the presidential vote harvest in all counties using IEBC number of registered voters. After assigning percentage of expected votes for each of the two main candidates I adjusted this for turnout using 2013 turnout of 85.91%. The results are interesting, lets start with the BIG SIX. If you have a different idea on the percentage each would get in a county, let us know why.

Assumptions: This election is a two horse race and voters will not spoil their vote by voting for any of the pundas on the ballot.

COUNTY || VOTERS ||Raila %|| Uhuru %
NAIROBI CITY || 2,250,853 || 55% || 45%
KIAMBU ||1,180,920 || 5 % || 95%
NAKURU || 949,618 || 25 % || 75%
KAKAMEGA || 743,736 || 90% || 10%
MERU || 702,480 || 5% || 95%
MACHAKOS || 620,254 || 90% || 10%

A sneak preview of the final tally as we go county by county:
Raila turnout adjusted votes = 8,120,660 = 48.22%
Uhuru turnout adjusted votes = 8,718,990 = 51.78%

COUNTY || VOTERS ||Raila %|| Uhuru %
MURANG’A|| 587,126 || 5% || 95%
MOMBASA ||580,223 || 80% || 20%
BUNGOMA ||559,850 || 80% || 20%
KISII ||546,580 || 65% || 35%
KISUMU ||539,210 || 95% || 5%
KILIFI ||508,068 ||80% || 20%

The top 12 counties in terms of registered votes are the only ones with figures above 1/2 a million (500,000) voters. They will play a key role in determining who wins. If the parties have a Get Out the Vote strategy, they are well advised to concentrate it in these 12 counties.

FOLLOWING

http://www.hekaheka.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/kamwana-uhuru-kenyatta.jpg

Wewe endelea na hesabu za upuus. UOTP brigade wamejazana kwa ma bus stations you might think last rides to Canaan are on offer. And that is how 70%+1 will be achieved.

UTASHANGAA AFANDE.WATCH THIS

70% +1 exists only in your imagination.

Like 10 million strong?

Yeah.

Nashangaa RWNBP team wakisema UOTP wana incite watu na 10Milli strong. What is the difference ya 10 milli strong na 70% + 1 ??
Watu ni kama wakianza kupiga siasa akili zao zinazima…

Si unajua tu vile siasa huwa. :D:D:D:D:D Utaenda home ama utakaa tu coast 8/8?

Umepatia county zote the average turnout, wacha mchezo, some counties always have a higher rurnout than others

Btw nilipigwa transfer niko Nai. Vote ni ya Msa…Ntaenda kung’oa Sultan mwitu mamlakani…:D:D

I see what you did hapo kwa final tally in hundreds. 660 is 990 upside down

Especially kabondo kasipul inakuaga na 110…

just a coincidence, should have been Raila - 8,120,666 Uhuru - 8,718,999. We all know what 666 stands for, UK you just need to call 999 coz he will thrash you!

nice recovery. I thought it would be @123tokambio for raila the 312 he is

That is why I say " If the parties have a Get Out the Vote strategy, they are well advised to concentrate it in the Top 12 counties." This election will be won on turnout.

ni mambo na surupet…

Mimi Kura yangu iko kakamega na lazima niende nipige.Currently in Nairobi