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[SIZE=6]Uhuru nearer to victory than Raila - Infotrak[/SIZE]
Jul. 01, 2017, 12:00 am
By FELIX OLICK @olickfelix
Fifty per cent plus one is beginning to look possible for President Uhuru Kenyatta as an opinion poll still placed him ahead of opposition candidate Raila Odinga, with about a month to the election.
An Infotrak survey released Friday gives Uhuru 48 percent and Raila 43 — if elections were held today. Undecideds stand at eight per cent.
If Uhuru and Raila split the undecideds, Uhuru wins. For Raila to be victorious, he would have to win all the undecideds, a less likely scenario.
On Tuesday this week, a poll by the Radio Africa Group research department placed Uhuru at 48 per cent and Raila at 39 per cent.
The NASA leader remained upbeat on Friday as he campaigned in Migori where he said Jubilee had no campaign agenda and was only following NASA 's footsteps, visiting where the opposition had been to try to erase gains (see story on page 9).
According to the poll by Infotrak Research and & Consulting, Uhuru would win if elections were held today.
But what is likely to leave the two candidates and their think tanks pondering strategy and tactics is the eight per cent who haven’t made up their minds.
There are 19.6 million eligible voters in the IEBC register.
This means over 1.5 million voters are undecided about which of eight candidates to choose.
The poll of 2,000 registered voters was conducted on June 24-25. The margin of error is +/- 2.2 per cent, with 95 per cent margin of error.
The survey suggests Alliance for Real Change candidate Abduba Dida would garner 0.5 per cent.
Ekuro Aukot of Third Way Alliance, Cyrus Jirongo of the United Democratic Party and independent Joseph Nyagah would each get 0.1 per cent.
“One thing is for sure, the election is going to be a two-horse race [between Raila and Uhuru],” Infotrak CEO Angela Ambitho said.
IThere is also the possibility of Kenya’s first presidential run-off, if no one secures 50 per cent plus one vote in the first round.
According to Infotrak, Uhuru and Raila would each secure victory in four of the former eight provinces.
Uhuru would win in Central Kenya by 90 per cent, Rift Valley 56 per cent, Eastern 58 per cent and Northeastern 75 per cent.
However, he would only secure 29 per cent at the Coast, 28 per cent in Western, 14 per cent in Nyanza and 41 per cent in Nairobi.
Raila would win Nyanza by 83 per cent, Western 53 per cent, the Coast 61 per cent and Nairobi 51 per cent.
However, the poll indicates the former Prime Minister would secure only 37 per cent in Eastern, 20 per cent in Northeastern, 34 per cent in Rift Valley and five per cent in Central.
Analysis of undecided voters indicates Raila’s perceived bastions have the largest population of don’t-know-yets.
For instance, 18 per cent of registered voters in Western and 9 per cent of voters at the Coast say they don’t know who they want fos President. Ten per cent of undecideds are in Rift Valley and 6 per cent in Nairobi. Five per cent undecided voters are in Central and Eastern and three per cent in Nyanza.
In 2013, Uhuru won with 6,173,433 votes against Raila’s 5,340,546.
Uhuru got a major boost from turnout in his bastions. Where he won, he won big — averaging 86 per cent of the vote share.
Raila’s average vote share in the 27 counties he won was 70 per cent.
According to the Infotrak poll, 47 per cent of Kenyans said they feel closest to Uhuru’s Jubilee Party, 43 per cent said they feel closest to NASA.
Half of Kenyans said the country is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 45 per cent who said it’s on the right path. Four per cent said they do not know if the country’s direction is right or wrong.
Kenyatta’s Central backyard and Northeastern topped the regions that said the country was moving in the right direction. Eighty per cent and 79 per cent in Central and Northeastern, respectively, said it’s on the right track.
However, most Kenyans in Rift Valley, Eastern, Nairobi, Coast, Nyanza and Western said it’s on the wrong track.
Sixty-seven per cent voters in Nyanza, 66 per cent at the Coast, 60 per cent in Nairobi and 59 per cent in Western said the direction is wrong.
Similarly, 52 per cent in Eastern and 49 per cent in Rift Valley said the direction is wrong.
High cost of living (46 per cent), rampant corruption (22 per cent), tribalism (7 per cent) and unemployment (7 per cent) are the main reasons cited for the wrong direction.
Asked who is responsible for the wrong direction, 48 per cent blamed the President, 17 per cent blamed the politicians and 12 per cent of respondents blamed everybody for the mess.
Among the optimists, 28 per cent cited peace in the country and 12 per cent said the economy is doing well.
According to the poll, however, 27 per cent of Kenyans want the next government to lower the high cost of living, 14 per cent cite food security as a priority, while another 14 per cent want the next administration to create jobs and sort out unemployment.
The other priority areas that Kenyans want fixed are insecurity and crime at 9 per cent, corruption 8 per cent as well as infrastructure at 6 per cent
