Now that the DUST is Settled, Let's Talk 2022 (Let's Talk Candidly)

[SIZE=5]One thing I notice over and over again is the idea that 2022 can go either way.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=5]That’s false!!![/SIZE]

[SIZE=5]2022 will be a faceoff between RUTO Vs RAO + OKA guys, or RUTO Vs RAO Vs OKA guys.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=5]What does this mean in terms of voting patterns? I’ll answer that in a few, but first, let’s bust a few myths.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=5][COLOR=rgb(71, 85, 119)]MYTH #1: RUTO Can’t Afford to Lose Any of the Mountain Votes Jubilee Won in 2017[/SIZE]

[SIZE=5]Villagers, let’s not be ignorant of facts:[/SIZE]

[SIZE=5]JUBILEE beat NASA by about 1.4M votes.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=5]This means that even [/SIZE][SIZE=7]IF [/SIZE][SIZE=5]his competitor replicates NASA numbers, if RUTO retains the inroads JUBILEE made into NASA strongholds, he can afford to lose over 1M votes in the Mountain and still be president.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=5]And you’ll notice that the ‘[/SIZE][SIZE=7]IF[/SIZE][SIZE=5]’ in the previous paragraph is a big [/SIZE][SIZE=7]IF[/SIZE]

[SIZE=7]IF[/SIZE][SIZE=5] RUTO’s competitors can replicate NASA numbers. This ushers us to our next MYTH[/SIZE]

[SIZE=5][COLOR=rgb(71, 85, 119)]MYTH #2: NASA Numbers Will Be Replicated[/SIZE]

[SIZE=5]This one is just hilarious!!![/SIZE]

[SIZE=5]For any one to even pose the suggestion of a threat to RUTO’s Presidency, they MUST first replicate NASA’s 2017 numbers, then take about 700K votes from JUBILEE 2017 numbers.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=5]Here is the problem:[/SIZE]

[SIZE=5]NASA is damaged beyond repair. There’s no way to unite these interests again against RUTO. The fallout was so bitter that MANY in NASA strongholds (Especially WESTERN AND UKAMBANI) still writhe from the fallout. People aren’t as zealous for a BABA Presidency as they were at the height of NASA.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=5]Now to my favorite MYTH[/SIZE]

[SIZE=5][COLOR=rgb(71, 85, 119)]MYTH #3: Poor TurnOut Will Destroy RUTO[/SIZE]

[SIZE=5]People averse to the facts suggest that Mt Kenya won’t turn up for RUTO costing him the Presidency.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=5]I find this hilarious. RUTO can afford to lose over 1M from JUBILEE’s 2017 votes and still win… as long as he doesn’t lose them to his competitors.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=5]Turnout is a lose for RUTO, without adding to the competitor’s numbers, so he still wins.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=5]And the idea that TURNOUT will be WSR’s downfall ignores two very evident facts:[/SIZE]

[SIZE=5]1. As long as RAO is on the ballot, CENTRAL turnout WILL be high.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=5]2. If RAO isn’t on the ballot, NASA turnout will be super low. Lower than CENTRAL!![/SIZE]

[COLOR=rgb(184, 49, 47)][SIZE=5]That’s LOSE-LOSE for RUTOs competitors. DAMNED if they give RAO the ticket, andDAMNED if they don’t!!![/SIZE]

[SIZE=5]And now to inroads:[/SIZE]

[SIZE=5]RUTO can afford to lose 1M Central votes to TURNOUT if he keeps the inroads into NASA strongholds initiated by JUBILEE in 2017.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=5]Here’s what should bite Anti-RUTO folk:[/SIZE]

[SIZE=5]RUTO has made more inroads into NASA strongholds than 2017 JUBILEE.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=6]To say it plainly:[/SIZE]

[SIZE=6]RUTOs win over his competitor will be the biggest in KENYAN history so far.[/SIZE]


Any take on BBI ?Is it the kicks of a dying horse?

BBI is dead.

The BBI was designed to serve three purposes:

  1. Build momentum against the HUSTLER narrative
  2. Create positions to guarantee NASA is revived in all it’s 2017 glory
  3. Have a foot in the Judiciary to subvert the will of the people if it came to that.

I am not saying it was a bad plan, UHURU is by no means poor in political wit. Had everything gone to plan, RUTO would have no chance at the Presidency (he would be rigged out and beaten in court)

So UHURU is not a bad political mind, it just happens that RUTO is better

@Mzichi this is a well articulated masterpiece that the ADmean should pin. Rao and Uhuru combined killed both their parties towards their favor. This was achieved using the Handshake. Rao is a schemer and he used UHURU unknowingly to fight WSR and to bring division among the two, RaoS Plan was to initiate discord and fights among the two, WSR being a obedient student chose to be obedient to the master as he slowly downplayed them. Both NASA and JUBILEE are dead parties, Western ,Ukambani and coast have started to make their own alliances waiting for the best suitor to make advances. The end Game is with the courts to decide on the fate of BBI. This is what Uhuru and Rao are still clinging on But till then Siasa imeanza.

Myth 4: a new candidate will come and beat both of them

You didn’t see IEBC advertise for EOI for printing Ballot and Referendum material? BBI dead, ooooliskia wapi?

Clutch at them straws bruh…

IEBC ndio ilisimamisha BBI ama ni KOTI?

The heck are they advertising a Tender for printing Referendum if they don’t already have insider information?

I don’t care if there’s a Referendum or not I was just stating. Sio mimi nime advertise for the tender.

IEBC announces election and referendum materials tender - The Standard

On kiambaa elections, things to note:
-UDA fielded a weak candidate. His win is all due to UDA association

  • jubilee fielded a very strong candidate. His loss was due to jubilee association and kimunya. Note that this was a ruto guy previously and jubilee campaign heavily capitalized on this saying he is endorsed by both uhuru and ruto. This shows that despite their chest thumping they are very aware of where the people are.
  • jubilee avoided the kind of chest thumping anti ruto rhetoric they used to have during this campaign. Murathe, kamanda, bbi, odm association etc were all muted.

All in all, jubilee seem to be slowly coming to the realization that bbi, raira, deep state chest thumping , anti ruto ganging etc are to be avoided to win mtk.

UDA also need to realize that wananchi are willing to vote for the best candidate inspite of the party. The times of 6 piece is running out. Due diligence on candidates is important.

My dream is a parliament full of independent members.

On the other hand, Uhunye might be quite happy with the latest turn of events. He has successfully finished his term with only a few months to call it a day. He lured Rao to support him and calm the political tensions in the country and cheated him that the deep state would ensure that Rao becomes the president after 2022. With the fall of the BBI and UDAs stranglehold on Central Kenya politics, courtesy of the courts and hustlers respectively, Uhunye can find a good excuse to wash his hands and tell Rao off without drawing bad blood.

IEBC always has to be in a relationship with a tenderer who can give them all necessary materials at the drop of a hat. Whenever a tendering period ends, they renew it.

This is a contract for 3 years.

After 3 years, they will have the exact same tender qualifications with their next tender including the ability to print Referendum material.

In 3 years, when you see it, don’t think it’s the sign for coming referendum, it’s just standard practice.

Aki, Kenyans.

@Jarateng’ IEBC is looking for people who’ll assure them they can print all necessary materials IEBC may need for 3 years.

This is what always happens.

Or do you think the last tender they had didn’t include referendum material?

President is a genius. Reason why I always respect authority.

Vizuungu mingi sana muko nayo lakini bado WSR cant be presidend

We’ll take CIC then…

RUTO will be CIC

I was stating my take. I repeat, I don’t care if there’s a Referendum or not I.

Also, rubber will meet the road when time is right. Yours, like mine is just an opinion Sir.

That’s where you’re wrong.

The statement that IEBC ALWAYS contracts people to be on the ready to provide election material is FACT

Referenda material is part of election material.

3 Years from now, they’ll re-do the contract again, mentioning referendum once again

Aii mkubwa. Kwa comprehension is that hard?

I was stating my take. I repeat, I don’t care if there’s a Referendum or not, lastly…

Wont change nothing…independents come from the same pool of people as the other candidates…shida tu ni chama hawana.
Then independents are easily bought or coerced by the party in office…they just bend to the whims of the serikali…its an idea i once toyed with but independents can really bring down the ‘quality’ of candidates vying atleast party primaries do a bit of quality control.
Sioni tinga aki ingia…his stronghold is so demotivated dissilusioned and ruto has made inroads…a few weeks ago nilikuwa kwa kina tinga…was showed the way to his place like 3 kms away…kwa stage ya nduthi things that were unthinkable…ringtones ni speech za ruto na screen wallpapers and screen savers hata siku amini…if tinga screws with primaries and imposes guys then his goose is cooked.
Kulikuwa na matanga mahali ya a young man kwa mashemeji boundary…the only reason mtu wa tinga alikuwa welcomed na akapewa mic is because marehemu had no crib…so the tinga guy raised some coins for mabati and financed a simple keja atleast kijana isemekane amesaidiwa…but the tinga guy faced alot of jeering during his speech.
Voter apathy pia i predict will be high…raila sioni…ruto ndani.
Sipigi kura. Mi nalinda katiba.

You suggested that a fact was an opinion Mkubwa.

IEBC makes these contracts NORMALLY