Nairobi Stock Exchange share Rates History

Business
1

I am interested in trying my luck in share Rates.

Before I jump in I would like to see hiw these things fluctuate. Online it seems that such info is for sale.

If you have kindly share.

2

rich.co.ke Website

3

What you need to know about shares.

Once you take upon this, be prepared to have 2 jobs instead of one. This is more of a full time job. I have been trading very heavily especially for the last 2 months. I have also worked in this sector for a while so I know what I am telling you. Now listen.

This is my routine.

  1. Wake up at 4am. Read everything on business daily, nation and standard business news section. I also check capitalfm news and all threads on wazua.co.ke which is the best forum for traders in Kenya and has insights from seasoned traders. I also have subscribed to http://investinginafrica.net/ and a few other investing blogs.

Do not follow those Cytonn and bizna.co.ke stock tips ama utakuja hapa ukilialia ati capital yote imemaliswa. :D:D:D:D:D:D
Read the though and be aware of them as knowledge is power

  1. I have a subscription on live.mystocks.co.ke. It’s 1k per month. Since I am risking my money not playing with it, I need to know live prices, Orders vs Bids, Longer historical charts periods and also charting tools. You will have to teach yourself on how to use basic indicators like bolinger bands, rsi, zigzag, ichimoku clouds to be able to leverage the most out of the market and to understand price movements deeper. You also need a basic understanding of terms like PE, EPS, DPS, Dividend Yield, Ebitda etc

  2. Market opens at 9:30am. Wait till around 11am onwards to make trades since there is a lot of havoc and confusion at first due to unfulfilled orders and order placements from the previous day being fulfilled. Watch out for the bids and volumes as those determine movements much better. Remember the rule of supply and demand

  3. Market closes at 3:30pm. Watch the index and day summaries to understand market moods. The NSE20 index is on a 5yr low but the NASI is not doing as bad.

  4. Read and watch all news in the evening

AVOID THE FOLLOWING COMPANIES LIKE PLAGUE SINCE THEY WILL SHAFT YOU PROPERLY.

  1. Olympia Capital
  2. Sameer
  3. Marshalls
  4. Standard Group
  5. Atlas
  6. Portland Cement
  7. Transcentury
  8. Home Afrika
  9. Kurwitu Ventures
  10. Everyday i.e. Neveready
  11. The Stanlib I-REIT
  12. Umme - A fossil from Uganda.
  13. Car and General

Also avoid ALL stocks where the Government of Kenya is a major shareholder. The only exception to this may be Safaricom, Kenya Re and KCB if you can get it on a bargain.

  1. National Bank
  2. Uchumi
  3. Kengen
  4. KPLC
  5. EA CABLES - Avoid companies which over 50% of the revenue is from the government.

You will also need to check on where foreign funds are buying into since they are the best long term investors. Aim is always to exit with the big boys and leave peasants buying at premiums while being told by their brokers that the market is on an all time high as you can see prices have been going up for the whole year. :D:D:D Most trading platforms will show you daily summaries of local vs foreign buys and exits which is another reason to pay

Some of the things to remember:

You must be ready to watch 50% of your networth go down the drain and not panic. Warren Buffet
Only trade what you can afford to lose especially since you seem to be quite a newbie at this.
Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.

Avoid investment funds like plague. They will mostly make money by charging you commission rather than by making you profits. Also do not pay much attention to your broker when he screams buy buy since whether you make a loss or profit the broker will always take home his ~4.2%

I have forgone the middle rule since I now trade 75% of my monthly income but watch out for this rule. :D:D:D

Avoid very capital intensive industries since margins are very small and you may be screwed by rights issues e.g. Kengen. I would stay out of cement industries for now as well.

Also NEVER EVER PURCHASE A SHARE THAT DOES NOT GIVE OUT DIVIDENDS.

Best of luck.

@Okiya @spear may choose to weigh in

I would also like to hear what @Tia Dalma has to say since she is always on my case

4

Wacha nibookmark hii

5

I see how you just dwarfed my post …anyway I wish had this info before I plunged into the Homeafrika + Mumias mess a year ago …
You really know your shit.

6

@grandpa, can I give you some cash you trade for me? 10% of profits ni yako. :):wink:

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Hahahaha…As much as this offer is very tempting since I have always dreamt of running a fund thanks but naona this path tutakosana. Here are my reasons

  1. I don’t trade the market. What do I mean:

“Since our book is not addressed to speculators, it is not meant for those who trade in the market. Most of these people are guided by charts or other largely mechanical means of determining the right moments to buy and sell. The one principle that applies to nearly all these so-called “technical approaches” is that one should buy because a stock or the market has gone up and one should sell because it has declined. This is the exact opposite of sound business sense everywhere else, and it is most unlikely that it can lead to lasting success on Wall Street. In our own stock-market experience and observation, extending over 50 years, we have not known a single person who has consistently or lastingly made money by thus “following the market.”

Excerpt From: Benjamin Graham. “The Intelligent Investor, Revised Edition.” iBooks.

Sure I only use technical indicators to understand price movements better and to search for reasonable entry points once I have determined a security but I don’t use to technical analysis to determine what to trade. Warren Buffet: “Whether we are talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down”

What to trade I determine by:

  1. Financial statements. I have read and memorized most financial statement summaries over the last 3years of quite a number of securities on the NSE.

  2. I have read most if not all business news since 2014. Plus following other ‘traders’ on forums, contacting authors on business daily, calling companies since in this country financial statements can usually be massaged :D:rolleyes::rolleyes:. Very funny how when your capital is on risk the great lengths you will go to protect it.

  3. General managers histories and finding out who are the main investors. I tend to avoid Chris Kirubi’s companies with a very long stick. Aga Khan firms are very welcome though NMG and Serena are facing headwinds not of their own making :D:D I like firms where CEO’s have a significant stock except Merali the master shafter of course. e.g. Equity, CO-OP, ARM, Flame Tree. Though the last 2 I am very wary of right now. ARM=cement industry which is a big NO NO for me. I missed on the Bamburi bus so I let that go. Flame Tree I am considering a lot especially since the CEO owns circa 80% but I will only buy it at sub 3.50 especially since with their increased acquisitions we have not seen the track record yet.

  4. I have another very strict investor, my bank in form of a loan :D:D:D:D:D so for now I don’t need other investors since: more investors = more problems

I recently got a relatively large unsecured loan at 9.5% simple interest on reducing balance secured against salary before this banking shenanigans set down on us so I have a small stash to indulge myself with for the next circa 6-9months.

Based on my calculation. I HAVE to make a 29.79% profit in the next 6 years to break even. Maybe 35-40% to counter any inflation+incurred brokerage costs. Which translates to 3.34% profit annually. I think this is very simple but time with tell :smiley:

My exit timeframe is 3-5yrs from now with a realistic target of 200% percent gains on the low and 300% on the extreme since we are on a very serious bear which is yet to sink its teeth further so the upcoming bull is going to be one for the record books.

Mambo ya kunipatia pesa then after 3months unaniambia mtoi amefukuzwa fees you need your cash immediately sijui kama nawezana :D:D:D:D:D:D

I can weigh in on your thoughts but I am not going to assure you like the forex conmen to give me your money to make assured profit with it. Anyone assuring you profit is lying to you :cool::cool::cool:

8

Haha…Just learning pole pole. Plus these are my guides:

Benjamin Graham - The Intelligent Investor, updated one with market commentary by Jason Zweig
Benjamin Graham - Security Analysis
Poor Charlie’s Almanack: The Wits and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger by Peter D. Kaufman
The Essays of Warren Buffet - Warren Buffett. Warren’s letters to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway, Inc.

The first 2 especially are my bibles since Benjamin is regarded as probably the greatest long term investor and his publications have been a guide to other great investors like Warren.

Plus of course investment in basic finance classes since I am from a tech background.

9

Poleni sana nimeandika sana.

I remember buying KQ stocks at KES7.00 and selling at KES 90.00 WITHIN 1 YEAR! (around 2005). And the reason I bought KQ, it was one of the cheapest at that time na nilikuwa na pesa kidogo. Those were the days :slight_smile: (I remeber). Stocks siku hizi wachana nazo, Insurance companies were heavy investors in the NSE. But, now all money would rather be kept in the bank or T bills.

One thing that I can remember been told, “Don’t buy stocks if you don’t want to control the Company”. yaani lazima ujue Top 80% shareholders by heart, Profit for the last 10 years, where the CEO teremshas his Tusker, [important] the COMPANIES HIRING POLICY, etc.

Don’t buy company stocks with GoK as majority shareholder - unless uko na insider trading. GoK should not even be in the NSE, the Regulator, the Biggest Consumer. Politics ya leo haifaii kuwa ati the people have said “Tunakupenda lakini ODM uko Ruiru haizi make” it should be whether the GoK should be the biggest landlord, investor, consumer, lender soma P.S uko Chini.

Personally I would tell the GoK to sell all shares it has in KenyaRe so that I can buy them. This company is a monopoly, undervalued, has huge chunks of land. Our companies analysis (tukinunua as a group we get to say tunataka… Everady have an office for Moody Awori that he has never visited; secretary lazima aweke maji hapo) of the stock exchange showed this companies have very strong value:
KenyaRe (They own land all over)
Limuru Tea (Big Land owners in Limuru)
Kakuzi (they own land in Muranga)
Hint ata Womaniser wa pale International House alikataa kununua shares other than for there land assets.

@grandpa mbona haujaweka one of the stocks to avoid = Mumias
Mumias Sugar Co. Share price KES 11.43 (2014), KES 6.35 (2012), KES 1.10 (2016)

Evans Odhiambo Kidero is a Kenyan politician and current Governor of Nairobi County. He served as CEO of Mumias Sugar Company for 8 years, resigning in 2012 to join elective politics.[1] He was CEO of the Mumias Sugar Company for eight years, resigning from that position in 2012 in to pursue a career in politics.

Since 2015 only the following have been profitable in the long run:
# Stock Start Price Gain % Gain End Price Shares traded

Stock Start Price Gain % Gain End Price Shares traded

  1. Bamburi Cement 152.00 +13.50 +8.88% 165.50 16,715,600
  2. British American Tobacco Kenya 798.00 +72.00 +9.02% 870.00 7,491,900
  3. Sasini Tea & Coffee 16.80 +1.63 +9.67% 18.43 13,330,400
  4. Umeme 16.00 +2.20 +13.75% 18.20 49,435,100
  5. Kenya Re-Insurance Corporation 16.40 +4.10 +25.00% 20.50 71,260,500
  6. Safaricom Limited 15.20 +4.83 +31.74% 20.03 2,258,097,800
  7. KenolKobil Co 8.05 +3.20 +39.75% 11.25 251,936,900

I would also love to say, we have tried to list on the Stock Exchange but found the market to small. Yaani Express & Home Africa wako na sisi hatuko. If you try comparing listing in South Africa / London utapata ni rahisi. Kenya’s NSE inawenyewe. They made their money kutudanganya tununue shares za akina Safcon and Kenya Power. .

kama hushiki hii lugha usinunue stocks:
“ That the authorised share capital of the company be increased from shillings nineteen million five hundred sixty thousand (Shs19,560,000) divided into three million nine hundred twelve thousand (3,912,000) ordinary shares of shillings five (shs.5) each to forty eight million nine hundred thousand (shs.48,900,000) divided into nine million seven hundred eighty thousand (9,780,000) ordinary shares of shillings five (shs.5) each by the creation of nine million seven hundred eighty thousand (9,780,000) ordinary shares of shillings five (shs.5) each to rank pari passu with the existing ordinary shares of the company in all respects.” II. That in pursuance to Article 135 of the Company’s Articles of Association and subject to the Shareholders and Capital Markets Authority’s approval, it is desirable to capitalise the sum of shillings nineteen million five hundred sixty thousand (shs.19,560,000) being part of the amount outstanding to the credit of the revenue reserve of the company and the sum be applied in making payment in full at par for three million nine hundred twelve thousand (3,912,000) new shares of shillings five (Shs.5) each in the capital of the company, such shares to be distributed as fully paid among the persons who were registered as shareholders of the company at the close of business on a day to be fixed by the company at rate of one fully paid share for every one ordinary share of the company held by such holders, such fully paid shares to rank pari passu with existing issued shares.

P.S. Issac Mwaura tuditch ODM

10

@Tia Dalma Forgot to include Mumias as I was just writing.

Express Kenya is also another ya kuotea mbali. Kitu inamake profit kama ya kiosk and it’s a listed company.
Limuru Tea is a big no no for me. P/E of 622.05 :eek::eek::eek: Dividend Yield of 0.1% Other than the prime tract of land they have nothing going on for themselves.
Kakuzi is okay but grossly overvalued. I regret I was a big peasant when the share was rallying in 2013 from around Kshs 60 to an all time high of 362.50 in July 2015 which was around the end of the bull

I am into Williamson Tea, Kapchorua. More dividend plus there is a lot more room to gain on capital gains. Solid management. Tea prices are up plus the fact that they obtain revenue in dollars is a big a okay for me since with our increasing debt and this new law I expect the shilling to dip against the dollar.

They have the pending land cases in Nandi but I am sure they will bear those unscathed. I am already in WTK at an AVB of 172.25. I will continue accumulating until end of year. KAPC as well

11

When I remove NMG which I cannot grab above 100bob ever due to their lack of innovation and sticking to a dead horse(print media), Crown Berger paints which has not movement then there are not a lot of options. Remove the Kenya Orchards scum as well and you see we really need some fresh listings.

@Tia Dalma I do not agree with your safaricom analogy though. If you had purchased SCOM shares on IPO in June 2008 at the par value of Kshs 5.00. At the current value of Kshs 20.00 you would have made 4 times your investment. i.e. a 300% profit and a 400% growth in revenue on capital gains.

Factor in the Dividend Yields which of today stands at 4.27% boosted by MPESA revenues due to sportpesa, betway, betin and the likes :D:D:D:D

Basically without factoring dividend, this means that you would have made a 37.5% profit each year for 8 years on your investment. The dividend yields would be enough to counter brokerage costs and capital gains tax. That is not an impressive return?

Plus Safaricom will only keep going up. I climbed on this bus at Kshs 16.90 and I’m planning to exit at around 30bob at the end of 2017 or mid 2018 i.e. at 77.5% profit

12

I remember nikiwa investor mdogo, being given 5000 shares za Safaricon at 5.00. I sold them the next day that they were traded at 6.00. After 1 month they went to 4.00.
Personally, I would not buy Mpesa (siku hizi safaricon Airtime si kazi yao).

  • Corruption is to major at Safcon: Betty Mwangi (Head of Mpesa) decided hio stress ni mingi and quit, Scangroup, APA Insurance rule their
  • I cannot by even 10% of the company, nani ana hio pesa: The par value is 50 cents! Over RATED
  • The revenue is balancing out. Usione profit yao useme ni mingi; KPA, Kenya Pipeline have higher profits
  • This company has PR policies on recruitment, purchasing, even corruption. They “Audit” their corruption to make sure it is at good levels!
  • I use Airtel, this company knows me. We are in a love relationship with my network. I hate Safcon

This company needs to “invest in infrastructure”. This CEO Bob Colled-Me-More gets massive Kickbacks! He knows how to deal with corruption. I dealt with someone who got over KES100,000,000 in airtime kutoka Black Market (Safaricom IT guys) with full knowledge of the CEO. Ilikuwa mpaka kwa gazeti but the company did not use Constable Karau kufuata maneno. Alisema “nipatie kidogo”.

Airtel, Orange all have a separate company that does their networking. Safaricon uses companies like Huawei, Alcatel Lucent, Nokia Networks to build their infrastructure but implies in the financial statements that they built them so that their financial assets costs a lot. The dividends paid out should be even more

13

There is corruption in every company. Even at google, berkshire etc.

And on your point on KPA making more profit hiyo ni uwongo kabisa. Leta facts and figures. There is no company in Kenya making as much profits as Safaricom. Safaricom made a net profit of Sh38.1 billion which is revenue ya KPA which made a total Sh35.6 billion for 2014/2015 year :D:D:D and a pre-tax profit of Hs 7.4bn. Safaricom is playing with revenues of Sh195.7 billion yawa :eek::eek::eek::eek:

Kenya pipeline makes around 10bn in profits. But let’s not even get to comparing since it’s comparing apples to oranges. The above are not listed companies and they are not even on the same segments.

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Mombasa-port-boom-nets-KPA-Sh35-6-billion/1248928-3147442-88sndq/index.html
http://www.nation.co.ke/business/Safaricom-net-profit-rises-20pc-to-Sh38-1-billion/996-3198614-9v6dcv/index.html

And btw no one buys 10% of companies. The whole GOK owns 30% na wewe na kifua you want to own 10% :confused::cool::cool::cool: Even when you look at the largest companies in the world as well as locally, most of the people we call huge/bigfish own like 3-5%

Institutional investors account for the largest ownerships of companies. e.g. the government, NSSF, pension funds, Insurance companies and investment banks, foreign firms, banks etc Your 10% law is totally unfounded for. Even Bill Gates only owns 4% of Microsoft o_Oo_Oo_O

14

Wewe haujui vile watu wa Coast walificha pesa. KPA makes much more money, na hawapigi kelele. Remember its a Parastatal if they post 40 billion that is because 50% was siphoned.

Only buy shares that you can control the company. Financial statements are not accurate e.g. Uchumi, Telcom Orange
Or buy shares where the company has in Economics we call it monopolistic advantage theory, Vodafone can no longer have this

15

Avoid Mhindi (Merali, etc). Avoid (or exercise extreme caution) Public owned companies. Avoid companies with shady mgt. (e.g home afrika). “Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy”

16

Muindi firms are not bad actually. Let’s looks at some good firms with Muindi backing

  1. ARM - Pradeep Paunrana. Solid company only in an extremely overcrowded industry and Dangote is already slaughtering all cement companies left right centre in TZ as he is planning to do in Kenya. Company has had debt issues but so have all cement industries due to the capital intensity of the business
  2. I&M - Has one of the highest concetration of muindi investors plus they fund almost all muindi projects in Westlands etc. This is solid.
  3. Aga Khan firms. I don’t know if we can call the Aga Khan muindi since he is Ismaili but in case he fits the description his firms, NMG, DTB, Jubilee and Tps Serena are some of the best run firms
  4. Scangroup with Bharat Thakrar at the helm. Being the 2nd largest investor at 13% as well as the founder of the group. This is one of the best run firms on the NSE. Share price is a bit on the expensive side at Kshs 17 but nonetheless it is a good company
17

Sorry I am not buying this.
Safaricom is basically a monopoly. Airtel is a freaking joke hata afadhali ungesema Equitel which is the only product that can threaten to eat Safaricom’s lunch.

Safaricom is basically:

  1. The largest bank. They move an average of 220bn monthly. In fact if you did not know, they are busier than any bank in the world carrying the largest number of transactions per second. In fact, the mpesa subscribers grew buy 14% to clock in at 13.9 million users which is more than any Kenyan bank. If you add the money they get from the partnership they struck on running KCB Mpesa. They move a fucking tone of cash, literally.
  2. It is the largest ISP. Has already implemented 4G plus it has 11.6 million users - 50% of customer base - on the internet which represents a 21% growth for the year.
  3. Of course you know it has the largest subscribers on both voice and SMS

Airtel and Orange are just fossils that have NEVER made any profit with the CEO of Airtel raising a tantrum like a baby the other day that they might quit the Kenyan market with the government allowing Safaricom monopoly.

Equitel has already eclipsed Airtel Money which lags far behind with it’s sister Orange Money. In fact Orange may end up passing Airtel with the boost of some new capital from Helios, One of the biggest investors in Equity before it’s exit.

This is not counting shady income revenues like the security deal that saw Safaricom properly screw mwananchi. In fact even that revenue up there is understated to evade tax :D:D:D

Each year the monster keeps getting bigger and Airtel and Orange are not having any piece of this pie. In fact, now when someone turns 18 the first thing they IMMEDIATELY after obtaining ID is to: 1. Open an MPESA Account for receiving pocket money and a large fraction of the teens betting :D:D

Basically Kenya telecom = Safaricom and Safaricom = Kenya telecom industry.

18

ScanGroup is NOT a good investment. They are intermediaries. Do not own anything! Basically, what they do is bribe for jobs: BBK, Safaricon, etc.

Sasa ukinunua Safaricon what is the RoI longterm. The company generates a lot of revenue, but is stingy. The shares are safe bcoz of their MEDIA SPEND ya kutudanganya MPesa ni Yetu. Then WHY DO THEY PAY MPESA IN MAURITIUS ALL THAT COMMISSION!
The largest Bank: They are not allowed to do banking. Pesa yao inawekwa Standard Chartered and Commercial Bank of Africa
Their principle is DON’T GIVE AWAY DIVIDENDS BCOZ WE NEED MONEY FOR INFRASTRUCTURE. Their is 5G now being developed. Jun 21, 2016 - AT&T, Verizon Wireless, and other carriers will start to launch 5G networks next year. So tuseme 4G network yao was useless. I have a 4G phone lakini speeds ni za 3G!

WhatsApp, Facebook are better investments than Safaricon. Or as Warren wa Buffet would say this stocks za I.T. kama hauzijui wachana nazo

19

Hapa ndio nilipotea

20

Of course they bribe for jobs. I mean that is what all large companies do from kina Equity, KCB, to even multinationals. You grease hands and give out some campaign cash. That is what even the largest banks, oil companies, etc do even in the US. Remember I said ScanGroup is expensive which basically means it is not a good investment now. Good thing is that they were able to diversify that less than 40% of their income comes from Kenya now i.e. 34% to be exact. At 10 bob I would grab in a jiffy since it would be a more realistic EPS for me

And with regards to you schooling me on Safaricom not being a bank. Of course the term was figurative. They would never and have never applied for a banking license due to the high costs plus increased scrutiny that that presents them. Operating as a tech company gives them a lot of freeway since tech is highly unregulated. This is the play that Uber uses as well, you say you are a tech company and not a transport company so you evade on transport company regulations…duh My point is, they move more money than any single bank in the REPUBLIC. Their monies are held in co-orporate accounts in various banks. Mshwari for instance runs on top of CBA

They actually do give out dividends so get your facts straight. This year they gave out a dividend payout of Sh25.64 billion :confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused: Expect an even larger payout this time since they are doing groundbreaking numbers on MPESA due to the new betting craze.
I personally have never expected dividends to change my life. I live for capital gains and bonus shares. Dividends are just to cater/soften the blow for the transaction costs, foreign exchange losses, brokerage fees and tax incurred when trading.

Either way say what you must but a 37.5% return on investment per year for 8 years is not a joke. A CEO bringing this for the shareholders is A-okay for me. Tell me what investment you can do that does not require your time and supervision to generate such a profit annually?