Some people here believe election are rigged in Kenya. I hold a different opinion. Elections in Kenya after the review of electoral laws after what happened in 2007 and after the passage of 2010 have been free and fair.
The courts have even made it much much difficult to interfere with elections with the ruling that the results declared at the polling station are final and not subject to change by IEBC unless with the permission of courts. This means the only work IEBC shall do at bomas is addition of the declared results from the various polling stations. Presidential candidates just have to ensure they have trustable agents at each polling station who are ready to scan the form used to declare the results declared at the polling station and send them to their tallying center.
What matters in elections are numbers. I knew that Uhuru would win in 2013 and 2017 because the numbers were on his side. The tribal blocks supporting him and the number of registered voters favoured him.
This then is also my prediction for next year…Ruto will win elections very early in the morning. And this is why. Coast Ruto is gaining ground. The biggest shock from next year elections will be from coast ,some people will be saying that Ruto has rigged. Most of the coastal people have no issue at all against Ruto and predict Coast this round shall go 50 50.
Ruto has solidified Rift Valley. 90% of elected mps from Kajiado Narok Turkana and other swing counties are with Ruto. That should tell you something happening on the ground on the same. Recently you saw Peris Tobiko defecting from handake team to join Ruto camp where she will have to face nomination challenges to vie for governor.
Mt Kenya Ruto shall have clean pass. As for North Eastern Ruto will have an upper hand , those guys consider Ruto as fellow pastoralist. If you have doubt check 2013 results where Ruto led URP scooped all seats in Mandera County and many other seats across the northern region.
Ruto will also get substantial votes this round from Ukambani…by elections have given the signs already…unless you can’t see how UDA literally is gaining upperhand against Wiper in its stronghold…ask yourself where we’re Jubilee and ODM to field candidate there. Ukambani guys are also not enthusiastic to vote for Raila thrice again. Western and Kisii Nyanza Ruto shall also garner substantial votes. Even if there is a pit of voter apathy in GEMA, these areas I have mentioned shall work well for Ruto.
In conclusion Ruto shall win the election next year very ealry in the morning round one with higher percentage than even Uhuru did 2017. Bookmark this for future reference. Let’s meet next year August to check out my prediction. I have never been wrong predicting presidential and parliamentary elections with the exception of Msambweni won by independent Faisal Baider and Kitui gubernatorial won by Ngilu.
Let’s meet next year we go through my prediction.
Stop consoling yourself Ruto tunafinyia pale kwa debe. Central kutakuwa na voter apathy. The few who will vote will vote for their kinsmen. Wairia na Muturi lazima wanyakuwe kura za wasapere na vaite. Ruto atabaki na za kalejinga na ghasia ka wewe.
If I was Ruto’s, I wont take your analysis. As we stand Ruto is leading the pack but can’t garner the 50%+1 votes required to win the presidency. His lead is diminishing…in politics, 6months is a very very long time and m still not convinced that Ruto will be the president next year.