Most likely but remember former Nasa votes are split down the middle (kamba, luyhia, Luo will not vote for one candidate this time round)
OTOH kukes votes are not split because they are likely to vote for one of their own.
If UDA fields a credible okuyo (Not Wanjiru), they will take it.
If they don’t and we have someone like PK in the race, I won’t be surprised if he (PK) pitias katikati yao and takes it.