Latest Infotrack Poll points to a Runoff

[Simiyu22]

Uhuru-48%
Raila-43%
Four other candidates share just 1 percent of the vote
8% undecided

Detail
2000 Respondents out of 19.6 million voters
margin of error 2.2 at 95 percent degree of confidence
conducted between 24th and 25th of June

Breakdown

Uhuru- Eastern (58%), Rift Valley (56%), Nairobi (41%), Coast (29%), Western (28%) and Nyanza (14%).
Raila- Nyanza backyard supports him at 83 percent, followed by Coast (61%), Western (53%), Nairobi (51%), Eastern (37%), Rift Valley (34%), North Eastern (20%) and least in Central (5%).

Some points to note:
Western Uhuru 28%- Raila-53% - Total 81%. So 19% goes to whom?

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001245478/president-uhuru-leads-in-latest-opinion-polls

[LeoK]

80% voter turn out is plausible.

[Inspector_Kaswende]

eastern uhuru 58% raila 37? not accurate

[Ice_Cube]

@Simiyu22

2000 Respondents out of 19.6 million voters

what was the distribution of these respondents?

these final figures seem a wee bit out of touch for example Uhuru getting 28% in Western and Odinga 34% in the Rift

[Simiyu22]

@Ice_Cube

what was the distribution of these respondents?

these final figures seem a wee bit out of touch for example Uhuru getting 28% in Western and Odinga 34% in the Rift

I usually wouldnt put a thread about polls because people dont believe them when their candidate is loosing, but this poll is very interesting. The only strongholds are Central (95% Uhuru) and maybe Nyanza (83% Raila).

[kalenjinkirdit]

turnout in strongholds is what will matter come election date

[Ice_Cube]

@Simiyu22

I usually wouldnt put a thread about polls because people dont believe them when their candidate is loosing, but this poll is very interesting. The only strongholds are Central (95% Uhuru) and maybe Nyanza (83% Raila).

I tend to think the two candidates have their respective bases intact. there has been no radical shift in the various regions, emphasis should be on turnout. The frontier counties of Marsabit/Wajir/Mandera and Garisaa hold the key to swaying the margins

[peterj1]

What happened to 10 million strong?

[Scorp]

@Simiyu22

I usually wouldnt put a thread about polls because people dont believe them when their candidate is loosing, but this poll is very interesting. The only strongholds are Central (95% Uhuru) and maybe Nyanza (83% Raila).

Nyanza at 83% is because of kisiis?

[Tarantinoh]

@Ice_Cube

I tend to think the two candidates have their respective bases intact. there has been no radical shift in the various regions, emphasis should be on turnout. The frontier counties of Marsabit/Wajir/Mandera and Garisaa hold the key to swaying the margins

Marsabit iko locked.

[Simiyu22]

@Vinde

Nyanza at 83% is because of kisiis?

It must be. Looks like Kisiis are maybe 75-78% Raila. I dont have the whole data sheet.

[Scorp]

@Simiyu22

The poll also points to one thing. Ruto’s future cloudy in 2022. He is being sliced in the Rift.

Expound

[Simiyu22]

@Vinde

Expound

I corrected that comment. But at 56%, the Rift is more of a battleground. It reduces his bargaining power.

[kyomboyo]

@Ice_Cube

I tend to think the two candidates have their respective bases intact. there has been no radical shift in the various regions, emphasis should be on turnout. The frontier counties of Marsabit/Wajir/Mandera and Garisaa hold the key to swaying the margins

Somehow. Mandera had 101,000+ votes cast; Uhuru got abt 95%. All elective seats in that county went to Jubilee (tna+urp) 100%. What has changed? We can only wait and see.

[Scorp]

@Simiyu22

I corrected that comment. But at 56%, the Rift is more of a battleground. It reduces his bargaining power.

R.V vote at 56% is too low for uhuru,mind you that’s jubilee territory

[Abba]

@LeoK

80% voter turn out is plausible.

Rethink your class 8 percentage math. wonder if you really passed math

[system]

@kalenjinkirdit

turnout in strongholds is what will matter come election date

Stuffing in stronghold

[kyomboyo]

@LeoK

80% voter turn out is plausible.

I won’t be surprised if it will be higher. Gubernatorial contests will be the major factor in boosting turn out, NOT presidency, esp in non-strongholds of either side. The electorate now know what’s at stake at the county level unlike in 2013.

[Soprano]

Hehehe!
A runoff will be just a wastage of time and resources. Kenyans already know that it’s a two horse race. The runoff will have no effect whatsoever.

[Tarantinoh]

@Simiyu22

I corrected that comment. But at 56%, the Rift is more of a battleground. It reduces his bargaining power.

You bookmark this post Uhuruto are sure of 83% of the former rift valley votes