The results of the last head count conducted by our government on 24th august 2009 indicated that the country had a total of 38.6 million people and we are growing at an annual rate of 2.7%. More often than not, that is enough to describe the population of an administrative region, but there is more fun in looking at that information more closely.
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By sub-dividing the population into age brackets, the so called population pyramid, some facts about the characteristics of the population are exposed. For instance you can tell that in 2009, 53.72% of our population was under the age of 19, 71.79% under the age of 30 and 83.52% was under the age of 40, those are serious figures. From this you can also project into the future.
What does this mean for business?
If we assume that guys between the age of 30-40 are seriously looking into owning a home / car, this means that a potential 5.7 million people are in the market in 2015 (remember the figures are for 2009), that figure growing to 7 million in 2020, almost 8 million in 2025 and 9.1 million in 2030. That is a lot of homes, telling us property values in Nairobi and other major towns are not going to go down any time soon and there will be growth in the demand of building materials. That is also a lot of cars on our roads, meaning demand for fuel, spare parts, tyres and services such car wash and car tracking will be continue rising. For the skilled workers in this two industries, their services will be in highly sought after.
If we assume guys between the age of 25-30 are fresh in the job market or are looking to settle in a career they are comfortable with, this is around 3.8million people in 2015, 4.2 million in 2020, 5million in 2025 and 5.6 million in 2030.
If we assume the age between 20-29 guys are impressionable, like to keep up with the trends, a new phone/watch/fashionable clothes, are into the clubbing culture, are getting married and having big wedding e.t.c e.t.c the nos. are 7.9 million for 2015, 9.2 million in 2020, 10.6 million in 2025 and 11.5 million in the year 2030. For business people in entertainment, the entire supply chain of consumer goods, landlords renting studios and one and two bed-roomed flats, the future is definitely bright.
For tertiary education institutions serving guys who are aged between 20-24, the figure of potential students in 2015 is approximately 4.2 million, 5.0 million in 2020, 5.6million in 2025 and 5.9million in 2030. I now understand why most of our universities are on an expansion drive.
All this points to the fact that this is the best time to start a business, build your brand and a good target age group is between the ages of 15-30. I believe this is the thinking behind Tusker project fame and coke studio. Do this and the trends in population will propel such a brand.