There is an ongoing coastline feud between the 2 countries.
Interesting things have followed;
AS have recently swarmed our borders , they’ve set up camps near or inside our borders from Mandera East , Wajir East ,Ijara and Lamu. They’ve also planted IED on the major roads along our borders.
The FGS has stoked up nationalistic tensions across Somalia, Kenya is seen as a greedy neighbour that needs to be stopped at any cost.
I noticed some worrying things after a visit to Garissa ,forget my hekaya about nearly 2 decades ago sexual escapades, couple of weeks ago where I went to introduce my wedding best man to an NGO former classmate bigshot based there for some business…
I left Garissa in a 5 am bus,which was half full . There was only one security check at the Tana bridge in Garissa . At Madogo , 4 Kms from the bridge , many passengers boarded . There was no security check after Madogo all the way to Eastleigh , the conductor would only alight to “greet” police officers at the Coast junction and Ukasi roadblocks…
With the recent bust ups with Somalia I thought security would be beefed up.
Anyway , our greed is what is ailing Kenya. There are very few patriots in our security services. Most are there to make money.
Kina @pamba , @spear , the kdf /nps ,the govt needs to wake up.
Anyway, Kenya ni Mungu anatulinda tu , be very vigilant in Malls, public places etc , do not wait for US/UK/EU advisories .Security starts with you. Corrupt nps officers are letting in buses without thorough checks from Garissa into the heart of the city. …
Finally , my condolences to the patriots we lost recently in Wajir. I weep for their young families .The system forgets them very fast. May the Lord take care of them.
Kenyans should squarely put the blame on technocrats who ate the border wall billions, building a "a cattle dip fence " instead. Its unfortunate the govt would also let the APs use a land cruiser,13 of them instead of 7 as per security operations manuals, instead of an armoured vehicle inspite of all the reports AS have planted mines on the border roads. I saw Simba Arati being arrested in an armoured truck sometime back , with a 330 billion security budget , the govt should adequately equip our AP border units and extra judicially eliminate corrupt individuals…
Anyway, good day Ktalkers
bro well said, govt don’t take security serious kabsa.
we need to be vigilant .The situation is a bit fluid.
alshaba are not a formation army, they are a terrorist group. They only had camps prior to 2010 when former President Kibaki ordered troops in Somali. Camps and fixed positions are easy to detect and bomb either by Anisom, usa drones or KDF. They dont operate like that anymore, alshabab are the people and people are alshabab. Remember that. KDF and Anisom spend 90% of their time there looking for them in the first place before even a battle can take place. Thats is why KDF doesnt trust anyone there. The locals you interact with peacefully in the day are your enemy at night. In our entire border and across in Jubaland there are no alshabab camps. They live as civilians with the people. They don’t have uniforms, insignia or camps. During the day they work or do normal activities. They send people or do it themselves to spy or follow security personnel movements. At night they plant IED, carry out hit and run attacks. If they have a few minutes, they can take pictures for propaganda and melt into the night. Its an insurgency that takes decades to end. For the last few years, experience has taught us intelligence is the only way to defeat an insurgency not hardware. The IED’s are not used in areas the armoured vehicles are used. They know they will be damaged but troops will survive. They look for areas that land cruisers are used. Building a intelligence network takes time as you have to cultivate sources for a while and constantly see if they are truthful or not. The second way is to get the locals themselves to fight alshabab. Let’s be clear federal government of Somali doesn’t exist in the border region or region. They exist there by name only. They are just a talking shop in Mogadishu. They don’t give a cent to the region but expect 100% dedication from them. They have a contingent of somali national army in the region that is ineffective, made up of the wrong clan members and they go for sometimes up to 6 months without wages. They openly collude with alshabab who pay some troops to get info. The local clans despise them. KDF, UAE, usa/uk and Saudi have been building the Jubaland security teams particularly their troops to fight alshabab. The locals know whom among them is a terrorist, who handles logistics, who finances and who is their spy. Jubaland troops direct rival is alshabab as they take away their tax, influence and territory from Jubaland authorities. So we are supporting them in taking back control using the locals to pinpoint terrorists. Its working but slowly. The different clans need appeasement to join the cause. In the areas clans have agreed, it takes days to weed them out. However some clans value and support them. The usa drone strikes on those clan areas have really been raved up as they push them to a point of breaking down to cooperate. Its very hard to get 5 alshabab terrorists together as they fear strikes. But it only takes 2-3 of them to carry out a hit or plant IED. So conclusion is this alshabab is part and parcel of local community from the top at Villa somali, politicians, local leaders and local people. To defeat them isn’t about hardware but convincing individual clans to get rid of them within their areas of influence. The truth is Mogadishu pretends to fight them but openly finance or warn them of operations. In Jubaland we have convinced local clans and the authorities there to take up full control of their areas as a lasting solution.
In the coastal dispute, Mogadishu messed up. Due to greed they thought they could auction the oil blocks secretly, make money from bribes and no one will notice. Now they have made enemies within as the local individual states said they don’t recognise those agreements by Mogadishu. Any oil firm wishing to prospect for oil and gas in their territory must get permission from the state themselves or get attacked. All six states said the secret auction by farmojo is illegal and unacceptable. Their lower house in Parliament wonders why a bill was not passed to make it legal. That deal has its own big infighting within even before they start a regional conflict with us. Mogadishu is just plain stupid, they have failed even to control the capital from daily bomb attacks but feel they can control the states or somali in full. They have failed their security duties such that alshabab has several individual branches all over Mogadishu answering to different interests. Some are controlled by politicians, others by business people and others are simply gangs for hire. They get paid to carry out attacks as directed. Its has become a mungiki. Let them have a functional state first before dreaming of oil exploration in Somali states.
If these guys wanted to bomb nairobi and any other important town , they would bomb us to oblivion soo easy …we have not been attacked juu al shabaab has chosen not to …wakiamua , they’ll bribe their way virahisi sana .
@spear , great insights.
What you forgot is that all these problems are a creation of Kenya.
The US stated they are not in Somalia to completely finish Al shabaab but weaken it.
Kenya should have taken advantage of the clans along our borders, eg the awlihan who live both sides of the border in Garissa-Juba, the marehan from gedo near Mandera.
The govt should infiltrate these clans and secretly fund their clan militias to act as a buffer zone .
Alshabaab currently is supported and hosted by very small section of the marehan clan which incidentally the current FGS president Farmaajo comes from. In Jilib and Bu’ale in Middle Shebelle ,the Al shabaab is hosted by the Ajuran clan because the clan is afraid of losing its land to the Jubaland led govt led by Ogadens . Its purely a land issue ,the clan is hosting AS as its defence.The Kenyan govt should reach out to the clans hosting AS , this would have the clans drive out AS themselves from their lands.
The Kenyan govt should also make sure it has a favourable candidate in the FGS presidential elections. Its no secret the MPs,who 70% live in Nairobi , receive bribes before voting.
The Kenyan govt should also have its stooges in the regional States elected as president.
It should also infiltrate the big clans near our borders. Have all of them loyal to Kenya.
Please hapana juhusisha na yasiyo yenu
Fagia ya kwako
simply because of our greed, we let our borders open.
abaaha waaas!!
Hii ni tricky sana.
We have been talking to the clans even before we went into Somali but things don’t move as fast as you wish. Having our own candidates will be counter productive as it will be known and used as propaganda tool. The current Jubaland governor was sponsored by Ethiopia as he led the local troops from Ethiopia border region in Jubaland to fight alshabab. KDF fought along side them to defeat the terrorist in Jubaland and retake Kismayo. He remained to form Jubaland state government and the troops were coopted to the regional troops administration. So we decided to re-hat into Anisom and join others in establishing a regional government there. South Jubaland is safe and prosperous thanks to the efforts of nations and Jubaland. Kismayu has grown a lot thanks to peace and trade. alshabab can only sneak into Boni forest which covers 1000’s of kms into Somali and Kenya. They enter through their area in small groups of 2-3 people. Live and survive in the forest only to emerge to plant IED in grasslands roads where land cruisers patrol. They also pick off small villages and disappear. However you can see that their window for attacks has been diminished to minutes before choppers pick them out. That’s why their attacks are mostly hit and ran. They also rush to put IEDs making mistakes that end up blowing on their face at it did recently. In the north of Jubaland the clans there like you said have a different alshabab group that fights the other terrorist group as they support Isis not alqaeida like the ones in the south. The ones at the north collect taxes from the locals to survive and share it will clan leaders to be allowed to operate there. Kenya key is trade. All of them depend of taxes from traders who sell produce in the region, border and across the border. The traders have direct links to Kenya. They are the eyes, ears and messengers for all sides. Instead of sponsoring leaders across the border we are negotiating formal trade talks and terms. We will still build the fence and build a one stop border post. They register and deliver their goods to the border post, pay tax and pass inspection. They will be allowed to trade formally and above board without fear or acrimony. Incentives can be used to make ventures more profitable. The clan leaders and community can transport their livestock to the border for sales. All those funds will help them develop and prosper but they must cooperate with Jubaland to end the terrorist in the region. Otherwise the usa drone strikes into their homes continues. The era of AI has improved surveillance and intercepts in the region. The region is shrinking thanks to monitoring. Even 2-3 terrorists is now a genuine attack target.
My friend your grasp and depth on these issues is amazing. I retract my earlier posts in other threads that you’re Dennis Itumbi ,you’re more knowledgeable than the Itumbi I’ve interacted with …
Finally ,we should relook our position on Juballand president Ahmed Madoobe aka Blacky.
He is Ogaden from the Mohamed Zubeer sub clan who are numerically less than the owlihan .There are also complaints from other sub clans like the owlihan, marehan ,hawiye sub clans, ajuuraan etc
we should help him recapture his seat but have him form a more inclusive govt comprising of all the clans in juballand …
what somalia and most of Africa needs is a f*ck fest , every single member of each clan and tribe should grab anyone from another tribe and clan and copulate , after nine months we will all be intertwined and consider each other family …
[SIZE=5]Asante , soo where do I go to pick my nobel prize[/SIZE]
Madoobe is a good leader, he has taken South Jubaland to where it is now. The most important thing in Somali is security and trade. Provide those two and locals will rebuilt, prosper and provide tax for the regional government that can now go to social facilities likes schools, hospitals, water, markets etc. They can now also start building the infrastructure. I want Madoobe too to win and complete his work but most importantly I prefer a situation that we are in good terms with all clans within the border and further in the interior. This tie should be built around trade. Community or people who trade together have no time to change status quo to fight. So let’s support Maddobe but be keen to work with his rivals whether he wins or not. If we start taking favourites and interfering we lose all and give them a chance to continue using alshabab to fight us. We should have various one stop border posts along our common border. Lamu, Liboi, Elwak, Mandera etc. Make sure all clan elders and traders are part of the border trade business. Let them sell and buy goods through our common border. Taxes paid, goods inspected and incentives given. This makes more sense than the current unrestricted, open and wide border that all and sundry comes/goes. Jubaland will get revenue to run their regional government and decide what is there’s and what goes to Mogadishu. We get taxes to build the border fence, patrol and maintenance.
Deno is alot smarter than most people realize. He also wears various hats for different reasons and needs. Lastly he is very organized and dynamic to handle various organizations or challenges. I have seen him start as an amateur to become an institution. If you want to judge him don’t look at personality. That’s the mistake most make to decide issues. Look at his impact and deliveries. Those speak for itself.
Ngai fafa
NO, you don’t fund vigilante groups, when they are done they will turn on you. Mungiki, sungu sungu etc