Kenya politics is entering an equilibrium (issue based politics and 2 major political parties)

News & Politics
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A scorpion (UDA), unable to swim (rule and deliver), asks a frog (ODM) to carry it across a wide river (get to end of the term). The frog (ODM) is initially hesitant, fearing a deadly sting (baggage and backlash). However, the scorpion (UDA) provides a logical argument(10 point agenda): if it stings (baggage and backlash) the frog (ODM), they will both drown (voted out). Convinced by this logic (10 point agenda), the frog (ODM) allows the scorpion (UDA) on its back and begins to swim (finish the term).

Midway across the river (term), the scorpion (UDA) suddenly stings (more baggage and backlash) the frog (ODM) anyway. As they both sink (likely to be voted out) into the water, the dying frog (ODM) asks, “Why? Now we will both die (voted out).” The scorpion simply responds, “I couldn’t help it. It’s my nature”.

While this allegory of the scorpion and the frog captures key lessons, we know biologically a scorpion can survive under water upto 6 days. The frog will not likely survive because it’s injured and poisoned by the scorpion.

As long as the scorpion finds a way to climb out of the water, it will survive. We all know rivers carry all manner of things and sticks and stones will not be missing which the scorpion can use to climb out.

In our case sticks and stones are anything that can influence elections to favor the scorpion.

In conclusion, going forward, UDA and Jubilee will be the only major parties in Kenya. All others will be kiosks existing at the mercy of those 2 and the registrar of political parties not enforcing the laws.

Thank you for your attention.

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In simple terms, the leadership that took power after Kibaki (Uhuru jubilee and Ruto URP) will henceforth be the key players either directly, indirectly or their protogees until an alternative is born as a consequence or reaction. (It’s like KANU taking power at independence, KADU trying to offer alternative leadership but KANU swallows. People like Moi arise through KANU untill different movements arise as a consequence of KANU ways from late 80s to 2002 when the alternative is consolidated as NARC and they oust KANU).

Uhuru, Ruto, jubilee, UDA are like KANU. They will be relaying power to one another until many years later when an alternative is born and it takes power.

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