WHY KALENJINS AND KIKUYUS ARE LIKELY TO STAY IN POWER FOREVER
The Senator for Kericho, Hon. Aaron Cheruiyot, is right to call out our hypocrisy on the so called ‘Kalenjinization’ of GoK under WSR. To expect Kalenjins not to dominate the rank & file of GoK is to lie to yourself.
In Kenya, since independence, the ethnic group of the head of state dominates GoK. This means that under William Ruto, an ethnic Kalenjin, the Kalenjin will be the largest single ethnic group/tribe in GoK.
As at now, the Kikuyu, with 20 uninterrupted years at the helm, dominate the rank and file of GoK; but this will change. The character of government, in terms of numbers, and attitude, will shift from the Kikuyu to the Kalenjin.
Whereas the Kikuyu are still going to have large numbers in govt; at some point, the Kalenjin will surpass them, especially in critical state institutions. The current consternation emanates, perhaps, from the varociousness with which they are doing it.
When Ruto/Rigathi ticket took power following the 2022 presidential poll, they essentially entrenched a power grab formula that I believe - if followed dutifully every election year - will make the two groups oscillate power between themselves for (at the risk of sounding excessive) eternally!
The Kalenjins expect the Kikuyu to back them for 10 years, during which time the Kalenjin will entrench themselves as deeply in government as possible. But after 10 years, the Kikuyu expect them to hand power back (to them), as they wait for their ‘turn’ in another 10yrs.
Now, Kenya has more than two tribes. So how will the two tribes pull off this duopolistic stranglehold on power? First, obviously, is co-option. They will co-opt figureheads from other ethnicities. Second, sadly, will be impunity. They will rig the elections.
What can lead to the collapse of the Kalenjin/Kikuyu power grab formula? My answer is this: Half of the Kikuyu or Kalenjin must be extremely dissatisfied as to break away and vote another ticket. And this can only happen in a mid-election year.
What’s a mid-election year?
The first ‘mid-election year’ is 2027. The next mid-election year is 2037. Put differently, if Ruto serves 10yrs, he’ll have ‘no option’ but to hand power back to the Kikuyu in 2032. If the Kikuyu guy also crosses 2037, he will have no option but to hand it back to the Kales!
Now, you may ask, if the Luo are this far off, what about your small, ‘almost irrelevant’, ethnic group? Friend, you are far far off. It is my hope that Kalenjins and Kikuyus will at least put to power competent people. It is going to be back to back, my friends. 
