Its a wrap: RAO it is.

Men lie, women lie, numbers don’t. These numbers have been consistent, and hence the last minute panic moves by uthamaki and their henchmen at iebc.
Over the last two years, a wave of radical change has been sweeping the world. Evil regimes and systems are being swept aside, against all odds. Brexit, Trump, Gambia, Tz, and soon, Kenya.
Kenyans of good will, I hereby call it. Raila wins the presidency. But, as Farah Maalim once said, uthamaki would rather send this country to the dogs, than hand over power to RAO. Chilling, but we shall overcome.
America’s election, [SIZE=1]my second home[/SIZE], was the highlight of my research, and despite the whole world being brainwashed by the Hillary media Juggernaut, the consistency of our findings gave me the confidence to call it for Trump.
Kenya’s has been an easier call. Out of every 10 we sampled, 6 were for RAO. 1 was undecided but if pressed further, conceded they’d go for anything but uthamaki. And so have our organic online polls revealed.
Its always darkest before dawn. This journey has just began.
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My brethren from the slopes, emancipate yourselves from mental slavery. Don’t cheer on a regime that plunders state coffers, engages in primitive wealth accumulation, eliminates its critics and those who differ with them on principle, just for the sake of protecting the monarchy. We are not better than the rest just coz we’re perceived to be many, our women have just parted their legs more than the rest. Nyenyekeeni and you’ll prosper than ever before, under a regime that will equalize all.

PS: unlike America, where there’s a tradition of peaceful transfer of power, what I can’t call is whether RAO will be allowed to ascend the throne despite his victory.
Ready, set…watch!
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According to Twitter 2013 Peter Kenneth is President.

There goes the residence Quack. Tukutane kwa Debe, 8/8 i say.

Your name betrays your mental capacity. NEXT.

NEXT!

First let me mention that online polls in Kenya are only targeting a certain demographic group. There’s also no control over who is voting so the results could be skewed greatly. Sample size is small and is a poor representation of the population of Kenyan voters.

So statistically, these numbers mean you can bask in an illusion all you want. How is your mother btw?

I expected you to use the ‘Peter Kenneth 2013’ as your rebuttal as well…

What should worry you is the consistent pattern of these different polls. They tell their own story. Interesting Numbers, these.

That Peter Kenneth is a simple way of saying what I just wrote. My field is in stats and I can tell you for free. Ask @M2Random he can corroborate.

Studies can be done to provide results intended. Back in the day the Cigarette manufacturers did campaigns to tell people that smoking didn’t cause cancer. They even had statistics to prove it and had doctors endorse the message. I don’t think you’re an expert in statistics so unless you have a better explanation than screenshot from Internet polls…

There is no pattern. The audience responding to the polls may be the same day in day out. And i dont mean the same people per se, im talking about the demographic. You don’t understand sampling theory i presume.

Your opinion polls are rather like children in a garden, digging things up all the time to see how they’re growing.

Jana night there was a sieke at caramel lounge and ABC place for james bond wanjigi,kako na bahati sana,hio mambo ya tallying centre lazima ishughulikiwe,this person Raila wants to announce himself winner to the international community, na izo meli mbili baharini zishagunduliwa

For the sake of this argument, assume I don’t understand sampling theory ( 98% of poll/sampling experts in the US election are still wiping egg off their faces). School me. Uthamaki is winning based on…? And no hekaya, just numbers.

Hate to ruin your party but numbers don’t lie:D:D:D
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/art…uru-headed-for-first-round-victory-on-tuesday

first round victory on Tuesday By Amatsimbi Misigo |
Uhuru Kenyatta looks set for a projected 54 per cent first round win to retain his seat as President of the Republic of Kenya come the August 8th presidential election. This will represent a significant improvement on his 2013 performance when he garnered 50.51 per cent of the vote against 43.7 per cent for his closest challenger Raila Odinga of the then CORD who came a close second. Whereas Kenyatta has run a successful campaign largely anchored upon a solid and transformative first-term in office during which time Kenya has seen significant and unprecedented investments in infrastructure with key milestones in the transport, energy and communications sector and social investments in education, social security, health and youth affairs; it is Kenya’s unique tribal engineering that looks set to deliver the decisive vote on August 8 in a country where voting is still largely tribal rather than issue-based. All indicators are that tribal voting patterns and loyalties will be the most significant determinant of how regions will vote on August 8. Kenyans will not witness any loyalty shifts from the ethnic centre among the major tribes that traditionally determine the occupancy of State House. Central Kenya, Nyanza, Rift Valley, Eastern, Western, Coast and North Eastern have not had any compelling reason to shift from their 2013 voting patterns. Our elections are still largely a tribal census whose participants boil down to who mobilised their ethnic kinsmen more successfully to register and subsequently turn out en-masse to vote since voter registration was not conducted based on issue groups but ethnic groups. In 1992, President Moi famously predicted this tribal voting pattern at the onset of agitation for multi-partism in Kenya. ALSO READ: Opinion: Is it right for former Tanzania PM to endorse President Uhuru? “I have refused to allow multiparty democracy in Kenya because it will divide Kenyans along tribal lines. Vyama vingi vitaleta ukabila Kenya. Siku moja mtakubali haya maneno yangu.” (Many parties will entrench ethnic-based politics in Kenya. One day you will see that I was right),” he said. Moi has now been fully vindicated. There may be slight but not significant variations from 2013. Voter turnout may vary slightly due to emotions raised during the campaigns pegged on issues such as ‘the last bullet’ and whether Kenyatta would become the first one-term President or even William Ruto’s 2022 ambitions. But nothing significant has happened between March 4, 2013 to date to significantly change the loyalty patterns to the extent of influencing the outcomes of the election from 2013. Indeed, it is the internal dynamics of voters that have since died and been excluded from the register, those turning eighteen years and registering as new voters, previously legible but unregistered voters and voter-turnout within the traditional strongholds that will slightly vary outcomes for each of the leading coalitions and their respective presidential candidates. Based on Kenya’s current voter listing when translated into tribal voting blocs, the Jubilee coalition has an overwhelming advantage against the NASA coalition. If Jubilee’s strongholds comprising the Kikuyu (4.6 million), Kalenjin (2.4 million), Meru (970,000), Embu (233,000) Mbeere (107,000) and Tharaka (91,000) were to give Jubilee 90 per cent of their vote; this would build a solid starting base of approximately 7.6 million votes. Based on 2013 patterns; attainable and realistic hypothesis; If the ruling coalition was to further garner 60 per cent from Northern Kenya (370,000), 50 per cent from Kuria (45,000), 50 per cent from the Samburu and Borana (92,000), 30 per cent from western Kenya (800,000), 20 per cent from Kamba’s (423,000), 50 per cent from Maasai (182,000), 40 per cent from Turkanas (99,000), 40 per cent from Kisiis (470,000), 30 per cent from Taitas (172,000) and another 50 per cent from the other smaller communities comprising Kenyan Asians, Europeans, Ndorobos, Njemps and others estimated at approximately 122,000, their vote tally would total approximately 10.6 million Votes representing approximately 54 per cent of the vote. ALSO READ: Is it right for ex-Tanzania PM to endorse President Uhuru? This is significant because based on approximately 19.6 million registered voters, this would surpass the 50 per cent+1 threshold of approximately 9.8 million votes thus guaranteeing Jubilee an outright round-one win. Enhance service delivery Conversely, if NASA’s traditional strongholds of Luo (2.2 million) would accord them 95 per cent of the vote totaling approximately 2 million votes, Luhya (2.7 million) accords NASA 70 per cent totaling 1.9 million, Abasuba 67,000 (95 per cent), Kamba 1.7 million (80 per cent), Mijikenda 586,000 (70 per cent) this would provide the NASA presidential candidate with a starting base of approximately 6.2 million votes. If additionally, NASA garnered Kisii 700,000 (60 per cent), Turkana 148,000 (60 per cent), Taita 120,000 (60 per cent), Maasai 182,000 (50 per cent), Kuria 45,000 (50 per cent), Samburu and Borana 92,000 (50 per cent), Northern Kenya 245,000 (40 per cent), average 8 per cent from Central totaling 356,000, average 20 per cent from Kalenjin totaling 463,000 and approximately 122,000 from other smaller tribes, NASA would garner approximately 1.8 million additional votes. This would bring their tally to approximately 8.8 million votes representing approximately 46 per cent of the vote. While these figures represent total registered voters, it is noteworthy that Jubilee coalition had superior voter turnout in the 2013 elections at 93 per cent against the opposition’s 82 per cent; a trend likely to be upheld and this would therefore further increase their proportionate percentage tally. Statistics don’t lie. Emotions aside, these are the empirical facts of the case. So, all factors constant Kenyatta is winning the August 8 presidential election in the first round. He can as well now go ahead and prepare his acceptance speech and think of how to re-engineer his Cabinet to enhance service delivery to Kenyans. Dr Misigo is a Senior Lecturer at the University of Nairobi, History Department
Read more at: https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/art…uru-headed-for-first-round-victory-on-tuesday

I think your question is contradicting because your post is speaking on the strength of polls but as you put it 98% of American pollsters had it wrong.

Btw as @Simiyu22 said before, pollsters in US had said Hillary will win the popular vote. Which she did.

We are not talking about Uhuru poll here, we are talking about yours.

@Mjuaji is in our RAO brigade . I chose to call this friendly fire . He isn’t on uthamaki crew

Achana na online polls they do not fairly represent the 47 counties, the dynamics on the ground are too fluid this time round it is almost impossible to tell how counties will behave.

I am certain we will not have a run-off, it is a first round win for one of the two.

Eti ni analysis. He quotes twitter as his source. Must be really dumb thinking. You can also choose to believe the ktalk poles as well. Writing a lot yet saying a lot of bullchieth. Reason why he was labelled a scammer in 1932.

Is there a limit on the number of twitter accounts an individual or a group of people can have?
Even before the current elections fever hit, there are individuals identified as brand pushers whom we were well aware all along have hundreds of twitter accounts, the likes of Nyakundi, Disembe, Alai and a host of many others. Now imagine repeatedly posting your polls and these groups of handles keep voting.
What do you end up with?

He he he…
Why are you still hunting for votes yet you’re sure of “victory”?
What I know is that Jakuon will not accept he’s lost. It’s in his dna.
He yet to unleash his “Samson option”.He’s tried it before but this time, he’s very desperate given that time (And Mou’s) is not on his side.
If he can’t have it, then neither will Kenyans…