Since Siad Barre’s government collapsed in 1991, Somali has been engaged in inter-clan rivalries and warlords fighting for control over sections of territory.
Then came the Islamic Courts union, they seemed to have gotten control and support of most somalia except Puntland and Somaliland until Ethiopia invaded and kicked them out in 2006.
It’s not possible to go back and correct mistakes done in the past, but looking back in retrospect, this is the group that should have been supported by neighboring nations of Kenya,Eth,Ug etc to build a stable somalia.
It’s after this group was defeated that the radical members formed al-shabaab.Until then the conflict in Somalia was just a war of supremacy between clans and war-lords not so much on ideology, until the al-Shabab came and the whole thing turned into an Islamic Radicalism ideology kind of movement like al-Qaeda and was classified by the “wise Americans as a terrorist group”
The govt that is being propped up by Amisom is just holed in Mogadishu.This govt will not survive a day if the Amisom peace-keepers leave.In fact if KDF leaves the Southern sector Alshabab will swiftly take control again and start their match into Mogadishu.
I think it’s time AU changed tact and tried a different approach.
1.Recognize Puntland and Somaliland as sovereign states.
2.Support and recognize regional states run by reasonable war-lords in the southern sector that have popular support to guarantee stable and peaceful areas.
KDF is just holding territory right now and if they leave Al-Shabab just takes over.
3. Amisom should have an exit plan that should include strengthening the SNA to stand on their own, otherwise a 10 year peace mission that seems to have no end in sight is not the way to go.
And the 3rd point brings me to my conspiracy theory, why have the foreign actors in Somalia not built a strong and well equipped SNA force that can fight al-shabaab on their own??? maybe there is a plan to keep the Somalia region in a perpetual state of conflict for selfish needs.If that is so, then we will never see the end of Conflict in this area.
It’s in the interest of all neighbouring countries especially Ethiopia to keep the war in Somalia going.If you conversant with history you will know Somalia led by Siad Barre invaded Ethiopia in 1977 and nearly annexed a good region of the county. Russian and Cuban troops had to come in ground to repel the Somali offensive in Ethiopia. This was a time Ethiopia outnumbered Somalia in population by 8:1. This is why i totally believe the Somalis in SOMALIA are totally different from Somalis tuko Kenya, only similarity ni language na tunafanana. If Somalia manages to make a Rwandan style come back from the ruins of war, many weak East African economies will collapse especially Uganda where Museveni main funding comes from the peace keeping mission they have going in Somalia. They rebuild their army and develop their economy,Somali sensationalism kicks in and give them 20 years top they will invade Ethiopia again. I can a almost guarantee that.
The problem is fighting a nation now seems better than fighting a group of terrorists that have no surrender time.
The group has destabilized the whole region,making The north of Kenya and south east of Ethiopia look like the wild west.
I only agree with you on that part of…if Somalia manages to Come back…actually Somalia would grow so fast that we will start talking of the Morocco and Egypt of East Africa. The problem is that Somalia might take 100s of years to stabilise. There are Somalis who either think they are too smart or who totally lack goodwill for this country. Imagine fighting for 30 years! A whole generation is destroyed. No education, no culture and no systems. It’s all gone. Anyway, as someone said, itakuja kuwa siku njema!
Most wars are of convinience. Peace is not so difficult to attain.
I believe stability in Somalia will affect East African countries massively. Kenya especially.
If you look in history, port of Somalia has been a business hub for a very long time.
A lot of history is kept away from people conviniently.
Things are moving in Somalia, it’s only the media that chooses to report negatives only.
There are some nice schools put up by Somalis based abroad. They’re really giving back to their country.
There are areas where even Somalis in europe and US are opting to send there kids back to, to reform from the harms instilled on them by the west.
I’m not Somali by the way but I believe in spreading correct news and positive tjings in society.
It’s good to optimistic but just wait for them to stabilize; they will start another war. Probably they will invade Turkey or declare war against Israel. Of course they will be beaten like burukenges then we will go back to square one!