Ipsos synovate predictions

[Scott_Gardener]

Ipsos synovate predictions are almost always right. In 2013 elections, they predicted the following:
[ul]
[li]14-23 Sep 2013: Uhuru-24%, Raila-34%[/li][li]Dec 2011: Uhuru-22%, Raila-32%.[/li][li]Sep 2012: Uhuru-30%, Raila-36%[/li][li]Jan 2013: Uhuru-40%, Raila-46%[/li][li]31st Jan-2nd Feb 2013: Uhuru-40%, Raila-45%.[/li][li]14th-15th Feb 2013: Uhuru-43%, Raila-43%.[/li][li]15-19 Feb 2013: Uhuru-44. 8%, Raila-44.4%[/li][/ul]
The guy’s predictions were apparently on track. Let’s wait for the Wolf to give us his final poll tomorrow or Saturday:rolleyes:

[Simiyu22]

Yes they are always on track. But this is Ktalk. People here dont believe in polls because:

1. The first group believes their candidate has 70%.
2. The second group believe that if their candidate losses, the poll prediction results will be used to justify the theft of the election.
   My guess any more polls coming: Raila 46% Uhuru 45% (±3%). Economy is doing Uhuru in.

[denis_young]

@Simiyu22

Yes they are always on track. But this is Ktalk. People here dont believe in polls because:

1. The first group believes their candidate has 70%.
2. The second group believe that if their candidate losses, the poll prediction results will be used to justify the theft of the election.
   My guess any more polls coming: Raila 46% Uhuru 45% (±3%). Economy is doing Uhuru in.

Nothing much will change you can be sure about that. The elections have never been about issues and this one is no different. You can be sure the previous poll result will not differ with the next one by more than a percentage point.

[Simiyu22]

@denis young

Nothing much will change you can be sure about that. The elections have never been about issues and this one is no different. You can be sure the previous poll result will not differ with the next one by more than a percentage point.

At some point 6 months ago Raila was at 32% and was pretty much toast. UK had this election clean. Unga crisis and others made people think again.

[ndume]

eti polls saturday? no more polls until 2021

[Tarantinoh]

@Simiyu22 the pollster, Sasa.

[Simiyu22]

@Tarantinoh

@Simiyu22 the pollster, Sasa.

Niko mimi @Tarantinoh . I believe in science. And I believe science is not limited to books.

[denis_young]

@Simiyu22

At some point 6 months ago Raila was at 32% and was pretty much toast. UK had this election clean. Unga crisis and others made people think again.

6 months ago NASA did not even exist. There was no presidential candidate to opose Uhuru and that is why even the opinion pollsters did not bother asking the question.
Later on when NASA announced their candidate that is when we started observing Raila adding numbers to his basket as Kalonzo and Mudavadi and the rest joined him not this Unga crisis you are talking about.

[kush_yule_mnono]

Upuus

[Simiyu22]

@denis young

6 months ago NASA did not even exist. There was no presidential candidate to opose Uhuru and that is why even the opinion pollsters did not bother asking the question.
Later on when NASA announced their candidate that is when we started observing Raila adding numbers to his basket as Kalonzo and Mudavadi and the rest joined him not this Unga crisis you are talking about.

First of all its not just the Unga crisis. Its the economy in general. Theres at more than 15 items to look at (cost of living etc).
The pollsters have always asked if Uhuru and Raila ran today, who will you choose. They have been doing so for the past 5 years. UK was always ahead until the tie( sic) 2 weeks ago. It doesnt matter if there was no NASA.

[system]

@Simiyu22

First of all its not just the Unga crisis. Its the economy in general. Theres at more than 15 items to look at (cost of living etc).
The pollsters have always asked if Uhuru and Raila ran today, who will you choose. They have been doing so for the past 5 years. UK was always ahead until the tie( sic) 2 weeks ago. It doesnt matter if there was no NASA.

it seems una trust ya ambitho tu,

[system]

Yesterday the jubilee sec general said something that no nyanzarites would want to hear, the whole of nyanza votes are a sum of two counties in central Kenya

[Simiyu22]

N

@special agent

it seems una trust ya ambitho tu,

@special agent

it seems una trust ya ambitho tu,

Trust her very much. Very professional.

[Simiyu22]

I

@Duke of Busia

Yesterday the jubilee sec general said something that no nyanzarites would want to hear, the whole of nyanza votes are a sum of two counties in central Kenya

Yes, if the voter turnouts are 104%, 120% like last time.

[dungaa_unusee]

@Duke of Busia

Yesterday the jubilee sec general said something that no nyanzarites would want to hear, the whole of nyanza votes are a sum of two counties in central Kenya

hehehe,tuju was very composed.huyo mogaka there says he’s cs in waiting:D

[system]

@dungaa unusee

hehehe,tuju was very composed.huyo mogaka there says he’s cs in waiting:D

loyalty must be rewarded na si tafadhali

[The_brave]

@Duke of Busia

Yesterday the jubilee sec general said something that no nyanzarites would want to hear, the whole of nyanza votes are a sum of two counties in central Kenya

41. Siaya; 457,953 voters
42. Kisumu: 539,210 voters
43. Homa Bay: 476,875 voters
44. Migori: 388,633 voters

Total = 1.861671

21. Muranga: 587,126 voters
22. Kiambu: 1,180,920 voters

Total = 1.768046

[Kennedy_Maina]

@Scott Gardener

Ipsos synovate predictions are almost always right. In 2013 elections, they predicted the following:
[ul]
[li]14-23 Sep 2013: Uhuru-24%, Raila-34%[/li][li]Dec 2011: Uhuru-22%, Raila-32%.[/li][li]Sep 2012: Uhuru-30%, Raila-36%[/li][li]Jan 2013: Uhuru-40%, Raila-46%[/li][li]31st Jan-2nd Feb 2013: Uhuru-40%, Raila-45%.[/li][li]14th-15th Feb 2013: Uhuru-43%, Raila-43%.[/li][li]15-19 Feb 2013: Uhuru-44. 8%, Raila-44.4%[/li][/ul]
The guy’s predictions were apparently on track. Let’s wait for the Wolf to give us his final poll tomorrow or Saturday:rolleyes:

The final polls were given on Tuesday.
The law says opinion polls must end one week before voting.

[Kennedy_Maina]

@Simiyu22

At some point 6 months ago Raila was at 32% and was pretty much toast. UK had this election clean. Unga crisis and others made people think again.

Even if there was no Unga crisis, the numbers would be more or less the same.
We all know we vote tribal, and were just waiting for the final weeks for the numbers to fall in place.

[The_brave]

@Scott Gardener

Ipsos synovate predictions are almost always right. In 2013 elections, they predicted the following:
[ul]
[li]14-23 Sep 2013: Uhuru-24%, Raila-34%[/li][li]Dec 2011: Uhuru-22%, Raila-32%.[/li][li]Sep 2012: Uhuru-30%, Raila-36%[/li][li]Jan 2013: Uhuru-40%, Raila-46%[/li][li]31st Jan-2nd Feb 2013: Uhuru-40%, Raila-45%.[/li][li]14th-15th Feb 2013: Uhuru-43%, Raila-43%.[/li][li]15-19 Feb 2013: Uhuru-44. 8%, Raila-44.4%[/li][/ul]
The guy’s predictions were apparently on track. Let’s wait for the Wolf to give us his final poll tomorrow or Saturday:rolleyes:

Ipsos last poll.
Uhuru = 47 per cent
Raila’s = 44 per cent
Undecided = 8 per cent