I’ve always thought that investing in Kenya is a bad idea and this week, the CBK governor himself confirmed it.
He mentioned that Kenya has been riding on an artificially over-valued exchange rate (KESH against the USD) for six years and that’s why the decision was made to ALLOW/LET the Kenya shilling find its value in the market instead.
What does this mean? It means the KESH will keep getting devalued until it hits that sweet spot where its value actually makes sense. This will have a huge correction effect on the economy in other areas as well such as real estate, the cost of production etc etc.
When this happens, all those multi-million apartments in Kilimani will start going for a song, the costs of building and construction will have to go down by FORCE.
I foresee a situation where the USD hits 250. Anyone investing in Kenya right now is a fool. Kabogo himself said on Spice FM that he’s starting to do business in South Africa. Good because I got there first and my house in Cape Town is up 20% with a tenant who pays on time and in the strong South African Rand. Before I made this investment, I had thought of buying a property in Nairobi instead but I’m glad I did not.
I wonder how many investors have moved out of Kenya in the last 3 years or so. I’d love to look at that data.