One of the things that I learnt after reading Alinsky’s Rules for Radicals, is that many of the so-called political strategies are nothing more than a series of accidents and opportunities.
It is obvious that Uhuru has turned his back on Ruto. However, many of us don’t know what Uhuru’s game plan is. My suspicion is that a series of accidents may lead to another path: the impeachment of the Deputy President. And although this might be a herculean task, it is possible.
ODM will be convinced that they will be the ones to benefit; consequently, they might end up supporting this move. However if Uhuru comes up with the idea of appointing Matiang’i as his Deputy President it will be a game-changer for both Ruto and Raila.
The solution then for those who will feel disgruntled, will be to wait for 2022 in order to teach Uhuru a lesson. But what if Uhuru chooses to resign before his term is over so that Matiang’i gets the benefit of incumbency?
This will strengthen Matiang’i’s position for 2022, depending on how he will handle the one year in office. This will be similar to what Khama did with Masisi in Botswana.
Both Masisi and Matiang’i have got similar stories: both rose rapidly through the ranks of power; both were/are highly favoured by their Masters and both were/are Masters of sycophancy: constantly praising the president in all things. In fact, Masisi (whose name was corrupted to Sisiboy) was so loyal to the then president, that he was branded the Chief Lelope.
But their similarities end there - at least for now.
In March 2019, Khama stepped down as president and handed over power to his deputy one year before his term was to officially end. In doing so, Khama thought that he was handing power to a puppet who will continue being loyal to him and to his family. He was in for a rude shock.
Immediately he got power, Masisi turned his guns, not on the opposition, but on Khama loyalists within the party and government. Masisi went on to win the election in 2019 even after the former president chose to support a different candidate from a different party. In doing so, Khama had chosen to abandon the political party that his father founded.
The Khama/Masisi debacle should teach Uhuru one thing: he is not the only one who can play the game of Betrayal. it happened in Botswana and it can happen in Kenya.