First off, let’s take a closer look at the numbers:
Had RAO got 25% of the votes Cast in the 5 KIUK counties, he would still have lost in 2017.
For 25% to make any difference this time, he must first keep all his 2017 strongholds intact
What people fail to understand is that it’s not what you win that counts… what matters is by how much you win
If RAO can’t keep his 80+% wins in Busia, Vihiga, Kakamega, Kilifi, Kitui, Machakos and Makueni, his goose is cooked.
He needs to retain the 90% and near-90% wins in Makueni, Busia and Vihiga.
And on KIUK counties, honestly, RAO can only get those votes from Kiambu (where he had 7% last time). That’s more than Jubilee got in any of the LUO-Nyanza counties. Nyandarua, Nyeri, Murang’a and Kirinyaga will be a hard sell
You see RAO knocking 90% in Makueni, Busia, and Vihiga?
Over 80% in Kilifi and Machakos?
Ruto won this on that day BBI was launched in BOMAS